Soren Dayton, the GOP consultant who runs the blog eye on ‘08 has brought up the significance of the Mormon question before on his blog (he doesn’t think it’s an issue). Why is Romney getting beaten up so badly and so early in the Republican primary? Surely he’s not the first top-tier Republican candidate who’s tracked to the right before a primary. I mean surely another Republican candidate hasn’t stood on stage and denounced the leaders of a significant portion of their base as “agents of intolerance,” voted against tax cuts for the rich, etc. Why are Romney’s flip-flops a more significant issue?
Chuck Todd asked about “The Mormon Question”. Jan Van Lohuizen, Romney’s pollster responded with: (Dayton’s emphasis, not mine)
There are two levels to the answer. One level is the inside baseball between now and, call it August. The people in this room are going to hear questions about the Mormon thing until its ridiculous or its embarassing. I think the question will wear itself out. There is no answer because the question is a weapon and you keep repeating the question until people…don’t want to hear it anymore. At the voter level, the polling on it has been just really mixed. Some people say it;’s a problem to more than 40%, other people say 20%.
Dayton highlights the wrong sentences from that quote. There are only two things said in that paragraph that matter:
At the voter level, the polling on it has been just really mixed. Some people say it;’s a problem to more than 40%, other people say 20%.
Play that out in your head. At least 20% and up to 40% of Republican primary voters (the base) will vote against Romney simply because he’s a Mormon (this from Romney’s pollster). Those numbers are huge. In 2004 Bush kept the Republican base energized and intact winning more than 90% of self-identified Republican voters. If the GOP thinks they would lose a chunk of their base from the outset (or dampen their enthusiasm) because of the nominee’s religion they can’t feel comfortable with one of their front runners in the general election.
The issue isn’t elites, it’s the base. The flip-flopping seems like a proxy war it’s not just the elites or the freepers when CBN brings it up.
2 Responses to “Which Romney Question”
[...] The broadsides against Romney have less to do with his flip-flops and more to do with Evangelical aversions to his Mormonism. Think it’s just the elites that are bringing it up? Hold your nose and peer through this search at Free Republic the only real right-wing online community. That’s the coveted Republican base. [...]
Something to say?
I’m wondering what makes Romney a first tier candidate? He’s not the front-runner, a title that could arguable be given to McCain or Giuliani. Yes he was the chair of the Republican Governor’s Association and he has been campaigning his ass off, but does that succeed in making him a top tier candidate worthy of this sort of scrutiny?
Something about Romney rings similar to Hillary Clinton’s perception as being the front runner (though for admittedly very different reasons). He seems to be a contender because people say he’s a contender and not because of any particular action or grassroots support that has caused him to merit the label.
Left by Matt Browner Hamlin
December 20, 2006 at 11:58pm