John McCain has been the target of recent attacks by Democratic presidential candidates Bill Richardson and Tom Vilsack trying to raise their visibility according to Chris Cillizza. McCain has earned this treatment because of his high profile of as a sainted legislator and the primary advocate for escalating the war in Iraq. Cillizza points out, though, that McCain’s status as front runner for the GOP presidential nomination makes him an ideal target for Democrats and that isn’t going to stop as long as Conventional Wisdom pegs him as the lead horse.
McCain can expect this sort of “punching bag” treatment to continue as long as conventional wisdom pegs him as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. For candidates like Vilsack or Richardson, who remain largely unknown nationwide and are mired in low single digits in polling in early caucus and primary states, attacking McCain is a sure-fire way of elevating themselves — albeit briefly — to his level in the presidential sweepstakes. By ignoring them, McCain doesn’t get sucked into a prolonged public fight with candidates who would relish nothing more than a high-profile spat with the Arizona senator.
This strategy is less true when it comes to Clinton, who is McCain’s equal when it comes to presidential positioning. It’s no accident that Weaver responded to comments from the Clinton camp while essentially ignoring those by Richardson and Vilsack. When it comes to Clinton, expect McCain and his allies to let no attack — anonymous or otherwise — go unanswered.
Though I’d place the critique of McCain’s war escalation plan by a Clinton staffer into a different category than Vilsack and Richardson’s attacks, Cillizza is likely right about both the nature of the criticisms of Democratic candidates and McCain’s response to them. McCain is going to be a top target for the Democratic field, not because of what he is as a candidate, but because of who he is as a senator. McCain is the top advocate and supporter of the Iraq War; McCain’s position for escalation is 180 degrees opposed by the majority of Americans. It’s quite natural for Democrats to speak to their base by critiquing a man who stands far outside the mainstream on Iraq (and even further outside of the Democratic base).
McCain’s threat in the primary doesn’t come from Democrats who want to end the war — McCain is going to be reaching out to a Republican base that supports the war. Rather he will have to worry about eventually being hit by Republicans. McCain’s ideology places him out of reach from more conservative Republican contenders in a way that other front runners positioning does not.
Contrast this with Mitt Romney’s time as James Gilmore’s punching bag. Romney’s engaged in a zeppelin tour of America touting himself as a candidate, thereby staking himself a spot near the top of the Republican field. Gilmore, a person whose appearance in the race sent almost as many people to Wikipedia as did Mike Gravel’s, targeted Romney because he’s a front runner. Gilmore is trying to grab onto both the coat tails of Romney’s self-promotion and the low hanging fruit of Romney’s ideological fluidity.
One dynamic that will play out repeatedly in the Republican race is the push and pull between conservative candidates taking strikes at Low-Hanging Fruit (Giuliani, Romney, Pataki) and the liberal state candidates moving far to the right, namely through offering full-throated support of the Iraq War and walking back socially moderate positions on gay marriage, abortion rights, and stem cell research. I’ll be curious to see how McCain’s history as a “maverick” plays into this dynamic between red state faithful and blue state celebrities.
Technorati Tags: James Gilmore, John McCain, Mitt Romney
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