Well I think it’s time for two pieces of CW to change. One, Romney is not a top-tier candidate. We’ve spent a lot of time debunking that and this four-state poll backs us up. Two, McCain is not the sole front runner. Giuliani beats him in Iowa and Nevada; McCain wins in South Carolin and New Hampshire. I’m not ready to give up my “presumed nominee John McCain” because it has narrative value, but at least right now Giuliani is right there with McCain.
All that said, this is a generally silly poll to talk about. Gilmore and Thompson register the same no-score as Brownback, Huckabee, and Hagel in Nevada and South Carolina*. All four states have huge undecided voter numbers. The results are the product of a zygotic campaigning season and all will change with time. Well, except Gilmore’s.
American Research Group:
| Republicans | IA | NV | SC | NH |
| Brownback | 1% | - | - | - |
| Gilmore | - | - | - | 1% |
| Giuliani | 28% | 31% | 28% | 25% |
| Gingrich | 18% | 22% | 15% | 14% |
| Hagel | 6% | - | - | 2% |
| Huckabee | 1% | - | 1% | 1% |
| Hunter | - | - | - | - |
| McCain | 26% | 25% | 35% | 29% |
| Pataki | - | - | - | 2% |
| Romney | 6% | 4% | 5% | 9% |
| Thompson | - | - | - | - |
| Undecided | 14% | 18% | 16% | 17% |
H/T Jonathan Singer, who has the Democratic numbers at MyDD.
*Less Huckabee in SC, who scores 1%.
1 Response to “ARG Poll for Four Early States”
Something to say?
[...] Sunny Mindel, a Giuliani spokeswoman, called the leak’s timing “suspicious.” Mindel cites Giuliani’s standing in recent Iowa and New Hampshire polling as the reason for the leak. The American Research Group poll showed Giuliani ahead by 2 points in Iowa and trailing McCain by four in New Hampshire. [...]
Left by The Right’s Field » Giuliani ‘08 Playbook Leaked to Press by “Source Sympathetic to Rival”
January 2, 2007 at 6:29pm