Soren Dayton takes on the Huckabee’s A Fundraising God narrative in pretty convincing fashion.

Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee held a fundraiser for his Hope for America PAC. It raised $500,000 from 350 people present, according to the blog of the Arkansas Republican Assembly. It got some good press and blog attention from Redstate, Kos, and others. But something is off here. And that’s why the Arkansas Times is unimpressed, calling it “puny” for a 10 year governor with many chits to collect on. Here’s why.

The “PAC” is not a federally regulated PAC that can be turned into an exploratory committee. The disclaimer on the PAC’s website says:

Hope For America PAC may accept unlimited contribution amounts and donors may give both corporate and individual contributions.

In other words, this is a soft-money operation that pays for him to travel around and meet people.

…

The article lists 10 donors who gave a combined $125,000, 1/4 of the take. Almost all of that was corporate money. In other words, this money can’t be turned over. If Huckabee hires a staffer in New Hampshire and that staffer says that Huckabee is running for President, then the whole thing is illegal.

This is a sham. When he can raise hard money, let’s see. But this is all hype and spin, and it suggests that he can’t raise money, not that he can.

The only quibble I have with Dayton’s analysis is that the Hope For America PAC can hire a staffer and pay that staffer with money they’ve raised. It would have to be a separate entity from Huckabee’s exploratory committee or campaign, but there’s nothing to say that his PAC can’t spend the money they’ve raised. More likely, this PAC will use this money as seed money for Huckabee-friendly candidates in early primary states. I’m sure sizable checks from Huckabee will make New Hampshire and South Carolina state legislators more likely to stand next to him on a podium. Coordinating those disbursements is no small job, but I’d be interested to find out what the restrictions are (if any) for staff of the Hope For America PAC talking strategy with Huckabee’s campaign.

One added problem for Huckabee’s Hope For America PAC: the Contributions page on their website is broken. I guess he’s not looking for online, grassroots support just yet and will be sticking to big donors.

I’m not an expert on PAC fundraising and I don’t have a great sense on how much money $500,00 is for a PAC to raise in one night. It sounds like a lot to me, particularly if that money is destined for swing-state candidates and not treated as Huckabee’s presidential bankroll. It’s not earth-shattering, though. On a longer timeline, $500k is not much: just look at what the some of the top Congressional fundraisers did this past cycle for the DCCC (not exactly an apples to apples comparison, but it paints a picture).

Even if we played a counterfactual game and pretended that the $500k was for Huckabee’s presidential campaign and not the PAC, it would represent at most 2.5% of what he needs to raise to even be viable into early primaries (CW says $20 million, minimum). If Huckabee is only getting 2.5% in his bread and butter send-off from Arkansas, he has a long way to go. But he didn’t get a penny that moved him closer to his bogey, so this discussion is moot.

Dayton is right: this event does nothing to prove that Huckabee is a fundraising force as a presidential candidate. It wasn’t a useless event – he’ll have an extra half million dollars to leverage for endorsements – but it doesn’t speak to his prowess as a presidential candidate.

Update:

The one thing I forgot to add is that there’s a reason that Huckabee is being touted in this way – to fill the Not-McCain vacuum that people long to have filled. Who will knock off the front runner? The desire to have an anti candidate is strong, as it clarifies the media’s narrative in the primary. It’s already happening on the Democratic side with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, though depending on how you look at it there’s a double-anti narrative need there. Whichever Republican hopefuls show real abilities to fundraise alongside McCain will be automatically considered viable rivals to him. Huckabee just isn’t there yet.

Posted by Matt Browner Hamlin
Thursday, December 28, 2006 at 11:15 am

4 Responses to “Dayton: Huckabee’s a Sham”

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