Well I think it’s time for two pieces of CW to change. One, Romney is not a top-tier candidate. We’ve spent a lot of time debunking that and this four-state poll backs us up. Two, McCain is not the sole front runner. Giuliani beats him in Iowa and Nevada; McCain wins in South Carolin and New Hampshire. I’m not ready to give up my “presumed nominee John McCain” because it has narrative value, but at least right now Giuliani is right there with McCain.

All that said, this is a generally silly poll to talk about. Gilmore and Thompson register the same no-score as  Brownback, Huckabee, and Hagel in Nevada and South Carolina*. All four states have huge undecided voter numbers.  The results are the product of a zygotic campaigning season and all will change with time. Well, except Gilmore’s.
American Research Group:

H/T Jonathan Singer, who has the Democratic numbers at MyDD.

*Less Huckabee in SC, who scores 1%.

Polling | 1 Comment »

Soren Dayton takes on the Huckabee’s A Fundraising God narrative in pretty convincing fashion.

Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee held a fundraiser for his Hope for America PAC. It raised $500,000 from 350 people present, according to the blog of the Arkansas Republican Assembly. It got some good press and blog attention from Redstate, Kos, and others. But something is off here. And that’s why the Arkansas Times is unimpressed, calling it “puny” for a 10 year governor with many chits to collect on. Here’s why.

The “PAC” is not a federally regulated PAC that can be turned into an exploratory committee. The disclaimer on the PAC’s website says:

Hope For America PAC may accept unlimited contribution amounts and donors may give both corporate and individual contributions.

In other words, this is a soft-money operation that pays for him to travel around and meet people.

…

The article lists 10 donors who gave a combined $125,000, 1/4 of the take. Almost all of that was corporate money. In other words, this money can’t be turned over. If Huckabee hires a staffer in New Hampshire and that staffer says that Huckabee is running for President, then the whole thing is illegal.

This is a sham. When he can raise hard money, let’s see. But this is all hype and spin, and it suggests that he can’t raise money, not that he can.

The only quibble I have with Dayton’s analysis is that the Hope For America PAC can hire a staffer and pay that staffer with money they’ve raised. It would have to be a separate entity from Huckabee’s exploratory committee or campaign, but there’s nothing to say that his PAC can’t spend the money they’ve raised. More likely, this PAC will use this money as seed money for Huckabee-friendly candidates in early primary states. I’m sure sizable checks from Huckabee will make New Hampshire and South Carolina state legislators more likely to stand next to him on a podium. Coordinating those disbursements is no small job, but I’d be interested to find out what the restrictions are (if any) for staff of the Hope For America PAC talking strategy with Huckabee’s campaign.

One added problem for Huckabee’s Hope For America PAC: the Contributions page on their website is broken. I guess he’s not looking for online, grassroots support just yet and will be sticking to big donors.

I’m not an expert on PAC fundraising and I don’t have a great sense on how much money $500,00 is for a PAC to raise in one night. It sounds like a lot to me, particularly if that money is destined for swing-state candidates and not treated as Huckabee’s presidential bankroll. It’s not earth-shattering, though. On a longer timeline, $500k is not much: just look at what the some of the top Congressional fundraisers did this past cycle for the DCCC (not exactly an apples to apples comparison, but it paints a picture).

Even if we played a counterfactual game and pretended that the $500k was for Huckabee’s presidential campaign and not the PAC, it would represent at most 2.5% of what he needs to raise to even be viable into early primaries (CW says $20 million, minimum). If Huckabee is only getting 2.5% in his bread and butter send-off from Arkansas, he has a long way to go. But he didn’t get a penny that moved him closer to his bogey, so this discussion is moot.

Dayton is right: this event does nothing to prove that Huckabee is a fundraising force as a presidential candidate. It wasn’t a useless event – he’ll have an extra half million dollars to leverage for endorsements – but it doesn’t speak to his prowess as a presidential candidate.

Update:

The one thing I forgot to add is that there’s a reason that Huckabee is being touted in this way – to fill the Not-McCain vacuum that people long to have filled. Who will knock off the front runner? The desire to have an anti candidate is strong, as it clarifies the media’s narrative in the primary. It’s already happening on the Democratic side with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, though depending on how you look at it there’s a double-anti narrative need there. Whichever Republican hopefuls show real abilities to fundraise alongside McCain will be automatically considered viable rivals to him. Huckabee just isn’t there yet.

Mike Huckabee | 4 Comments »

Rudy Giuliani, as noted yesterday, is going to run on his national celebrity awarded to him on the ashes of Ground Zero. Giuliani was shown with poise and gravity on 9/11; images of him arriving on-scene were shown on cable news the moment he stepped out of his SUV into the chaos of lower Manhattan. He stood alongside Bush at his finest moment and unlike Bush, did not go on to launch two failed wars that cost thousands of American lives and billions of dollars from the national treasury. even if he was a staunch advocate for both wars, Giuliani has maintained his glow from the days following September 11th.

But for anyone living inside the tri-state area surrounding New York City – or the smaller subset of people who followed the various hearings and scandals surrounding 9/11 – know that Giuliani’s luster faded long ago as the truth about his administration’s failures on that day came to light. Most notably, the Giuliani administration was criminally lax updating emergency responder communication equipment. When firefighters and police officers rushed into the Twin Towers, their radio systems didn’t work together and in many instances failed entirely. These communications failures cost New Yorkers’ lives.

There has been a persistent effort by family members of victims of the 9/11 attacks to bring out true information and hold officials accountable for their failures surrounding the attacks. Not surprisingly, that will mean that Rudy Giuliani will face persistent criticism from people who believe him responsible for the death of their loved ones.

A group of 9/11 victims’ families who have criticized Rudy Giuliani’s record vowed yesterday to reveal the “truth” of his performance during the terror attacks.
…
His moves may be an attempt to head off criticism from relatives like Sally Regenhard, the mother of a late firefighter who vowed months ago to make “Swiftboat”-type criticisms of the ex-mayor.

“I can’t see why any 9/11 family member who knows the truth about the failures of the Giuliani administration . . . would not be outraged about the failures,” said Regenhard.
…
“My role, and the role of other family members, will be to bring this truth to light,” she said.

Regenhard said she didn’t want a fight with other victims’ relatives, but said, “If these family members knew the truth about the failures of this administration . . . they would reconsider support for someone like him.”

There will undoubtedly be a few handfuls of 9/11 family members lobbying on both sides of the Giuliani presidential campaign. Giuliani will be campaigning on his leadership out of 9/11 and attacks on that reputation have the potential to be extremely damaging. I don’t like describing this as Swift-boating because the failures of the Giuliani administration have been well documented; whether they rise to the level of culpability is a different story, but it is not outright falsification to suggest that Giuliani is not worthy of praise for his role as mayor on 9/11.

The biggest reason for Giuliani’s candidacy will be completely undercut if he cannot beat off the criticisms of 9/11 victims’ family members.

Technorati Tags: 9/11, 9/11 widows, Rudy Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani | 4 Comments »

This post by Soren Dayton is really a nice primer on the Republican road to the nomination. Every candidate running for president war games out the primary process, building their case out of their home region. Giuliani certainly has regional strength in the North East and could easily win New Hampshire as a way to build the buzz for later states. I’m still not sure how a Republican candidate not named McCain can make it past the early February wall of states.

Having said that the process of war gaming a nomination is usually actually something Democrats do as Republicans tend to crown their nominee early. It’s just something that hasn’t happened in recent history and there’s no reason to believe that save for a candidate of the religious right (their activists), McCain can actually be stopped once the primary process starts out in full force.

Rudy Giuliani | 1 Comment »

Former Oklahoma governor Frank Keating is considering a presidential run. Not much to add on this from my end.

As he mulls a possible run for the presidency in 2008, former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating plans to visit with Republican party officials in South Carolina, which holds the first primary election in the South.

A South Carolina GOP official said the meeting would be private but that party activists who want to listen to Keating, 62, would likely attend, The Oklahoman reported from its Washington bureau.
…
Keating’s spokesman, Dan Mahoney, said Keating has not made a decision about entering the presidential race, which on the Republican side could include U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

“He feels like there would potentially be a place for his experience and his philosophies” in the race, Mahoney said, adding that Keating knows a decision is necessary soon so that fundraising could begin.

Keating serviced two terms as Oklahoma’s governor. Since his term ended in 2003, he has been president and chief executive officer of the Washington-based American Council of Life Insurers.

Technorati Tags: Frank Keating

Other Candidates | No Comments »

Some guy named John H. Cox is running for the GOP nomination for president. Shockingly he passes the Mike Gravel Test,* but only when you know his middle initial and can disambiguate him from the other seventeen John Cox’s on Wikipedia. Cox is an Illinois millionaire who made his money as a tax and investment attorney. He previously ran for Congress (IL-10) in 2000 (finishing 4th of 10 Republican primary candidates), Senate in 2002 (finishing 3rd in the Republican primary) and lost a race for Cook County Recorder of Deeds in 2004. With a winning record like this, it’s no wonder Cox thinks he can be president — he’s a governor of Texas away from being George W. Bush.

Via James Pindell, Cox is setting up an office in Manchester, New Hampshire next week.

*The Mike Gravel Test is whether or not a presidential candidate has a Wikipedia entry before the time of their announcement. So far, every candidate has passed the Mike Gravel Test, thus making the relevant factor of the test that a candidate’s announcement sends someone to Wikipedia to find out who the hell they are.

Technorati Tags: John Cox, Mike Gravel Test

Other Candidates | 6 Comments »

Here’s a list of candidate announcement schedules and decision timelines, via Eric Kleefeld of TPM Election Central.

* John McCain is expected to officially roll out his campaign in early February — but he already has an exploratory committee site up and has made extensive staff hires for his campaign.

* Mitt Romney will announce his official candidacy as soon as the week of January 8th, according to an adviser. He will set up his exploratory committee just after New Year’s Day.

* Rudy Giuliani already has an exploratory committee site up. Though he lags behind his rivals in organization and is staying mum on the timeline of his announcement, he is giving a big speech in New Hampshire next month and is reaching out to Iowa caucus activists.

* Sam Brownback says he will announce next month whether he will run — but already has an exploratory committee and a “Sam Brownback for President” web site.

* Newt Gingrich says he might not announce his plans until as late as Labor Day 2007, the idea being that he’ll have plenty of time this way to see whether one of the frontrunners has it sewn up by then.

* Mike Huckabee says he will announce his plans after leaving office as Governor of Arkansas in Janurary.

John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback | 1 Comment »

New York Governor George Pataki has decided not to pardon or grant clemency to any prisoners this year.

Gov. George Pataki, leaving office next month and eyeing a run for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, won’t be granting clemency to any prisoners this year.

It marks the third time in Pataki’s 12-year tenure that he has issued no clemencies during the holiday season. None was granted in 1998 or 2004.

It looks like Pataki is trying to come across as a law and order Republican. He doesn’t want to be seen as being soft on crime by granting clemency to prisoners. He’s only “issued 32 clemencies or pardons” in twelve years as governor, a paltry sum. Unless any of those thirty-two turned out to be brutal recidivists, Pataki is probably safe from criticism hardline law and order Republicans on his actions as governor vis a vis pardons and clemency.

Technorati Tags: George Pataki

Other Candidates | 1 Comment »

Rudy Giuliani’s appeal as a Republican presidential candidate resides solely in his celebrity following the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks on New York. He was declared “America’s Mayor” and went on take up extremely strong positions advocating the war in Iraq and unconditional support for Israel. Giuliani’s strong showings in early Iowa and New Hampshire polls must be attributed to his popularity following 9/11 and not, say, his pro-choice stance on abortion. It’s not surprising that Giuliani is now reaching out to family members of victims of the September 11th attacks to endorse his presidential campaign.

Supporters of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani have started discussions with relatives of 9/11 victims about backing him if he runs for president in 2008, some family members told The Post.

The conversations have taken place in recent weeks, according to some victims’ families, who described the talks as “casual.”

Marian Fontana, who lost her firefighter husband on 9/11, said she got an invitation to go to a Giuliani exploratory committee dinner last week from a former firefighter working with Giuliani’s committee. She described the invite as “last-minute.”

Fontana said she was appreciative of what Giuliani did after 9/11, but would want to know a lot more about any candidate’s stand on a variety of issues.

The New York Post article also goes on to note that Giuliani’s GOP primary opponents are likely to bring out some of the many critics of his response on 9/11 to combat his image as a hero of the attacks. The Giuliani administration has been harshly criticized for having inadequate communication systems in place for rescue workers sent into the Twin Towers on 9/11, as well as for covering up risks posed to rescue workers and residents of lower Manhattan by airborne toxins in the weeks after the attacks.

Giuliani’s presidential campaign is dependent on the image he crafts surrounding his leadership on September 11th, 2001 and in the days that followed the terrorist attacks. There are sure to be some of the 9/11 widows who will endorse him and others that will continue to be critical of his failures and lies before, during, and after the attacks. The success of his hero narrative is of paramount importance because it’s the only thing that would make his moderate social values and marital infidelities palatable to the conservative Republican base. The narratives success will be determined by the willingness of the traditional media to adopt it and the extent to which right wing pundits like Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, and Michelle Malkin don’t push back on Giuliani’s social positions.

Technorati Tags: 9/11, Rudy Giuliani

Endorsements, Rudy Giuliani | 2 Comments »

The AP has an interesting, if somewhat myopic, article about how presidential candidates from both parties are bolstering their internet operations and developing strategies to leverage online funds. Email and online fundraising ability are generally being mistaken for having strong internet operations and grassroots organizing and social networking is diminished in importance by many of the advisers quoted in the piece.

McCain is being touted as the top Republican online organizer, which seems to be like saying that the egg came before the chicken, as he is the presumed Republican nominee. In fact, McCain has many opponents in the Republican blogosphere and I wouldn’t hand him any titles for online organizing just yet – email isn’t the internet, it’s one part of it.

Republicans have mastered e-mail as the new form of direct-mail campaigns, raising money and pushing a GOP message. Democrats have excelled at raising cash through small-scale donations and making the Net their version of talk radio.

“You have an inexpensive way to have a conversation with people with the propensity to turn out and vote,” said Rick Davis, a McCain adviser who managed the Arizona Republican’s 2000 presidential campaign.

In that race, McCain predicted that “in the next few years the Internet will completely turn political campaigns upside down.”

McCain, the potential front-runner for the 2008 GOP nomination, is among the most tech-savvy could-be White House candidates today. He has retained many hands from his 2000 bid and has recruited some of the top names in online campaigning.

John McCain | No Comments »