I’m happy to introduce a new feature at The Right’s Field. We will be publishing regular power rankings of the Republican presidential field; our rankings will be called The Right’s Field’s Power Line (clap clap clap). TRF Power Line will only rank candidates who have announced their official candidacy or have formed presidential exploratory committees. No fantasy candidates will be included. Also, no candidates who we have ranked in the “Other Candidates” category will be included in the ranking because even if they have formally announced, they are fantasy candidates of another order all together. There will be some explanation for rankings, though this edition, since it is the first, will not be very full.

TRF Power Line is not scientific. It is not based on an aggregate of polls, though polling numbers are considered. Rather, it is a general sense of how the field is shaping up based on polls, media coverage, candidate competence, endorsements, and message resonance. The authors of this site may individually disagree with the specifics of the rankings, but they have been and will continue to be created out of a conversation we have with each other and with our commenters. That said, this is our ranking and if you have a problem with it, tell us why we’re wrong or go write your own (FYI – Oval Office 2008, Race 4 2008, and Daily Kos all have rankings of Republican candidates).

Without further ado, here is the inaugural TRF Power Line rankings of the Republican field.

1. John McCain – McCain is the Establishment Candidate and the presumptive Republican nominee. He’s got the money, organization and mainstream media adoration needed to walk away with this nomination. Of course, he’s not terribly popular with the Republican base – particularly the religious right and anti-immigrant wings. He’s going to own the escalation of the war in Iraq and he will be running as more Bush than Bush, so if Republican primary voters decide that’s not what they want in a candidate he will be in trouble.

2. Rudy Giuliani – Giuliani has phenomenal name recognition and has been doing well in the polls, often polling ahead of McCain. He’s thought of as America’s Mayor for his performance following 9/11. That said, Giuliani is socially moderate and far to the left of most Republican voters on social issues. He did an abysmal job as mayor of New York before 9/11 and his poor performance will be surely talked about by his opponents over time. My guess is that more Republican voters get to know Giuliani, the less they will like him.

3. Mitt Romney – Romney’s biggest opponent is himself, circa twelve years ago. You thought Kerry was a flip-flopper? Well, America, prepare to be introduced the politician from Massachusetts who owns the term. Like Giuliani, the more Republican voters learn about Romney’s past political beliefs, the less he will be viewed as an acceptable candidate.

4. Tommy Thompson – Entering the territory of candidate who are announced, but are really just third tier candidates now we find Tommy Thompson. Thompson’s resume will make him a popular candidate and he’s pushing a very grassroots effort that could fuel a sleeper campaign.

5. Sam Brownback – Brownback is going to be the guy to beat for the support of the religious right. He’s also making good in-roads with business leaders in Iowa, so I don’t think his will be a one-dimensional campaign. Brownback’s my pick to be the dark horse candidate. He is currently suffering from low name recognition, but stands in the right place on most issues Republicans care about (the notable exceptions being his stance on immigration and Iraq, though he’s casting his campaign on principle and faith so he can probably explain these positions away to primary voters).

6. Tom Tancredo – Tancredo may be a single-issue candidate, but immigration is a huge one. Kombiz and others have predicted Tancredo will gain enough support running an anti-immigration platform to become a threat in the field.

7. James Gilmore – Gilmore is similar to Thompson in that he has national connections to major Republican donors, a good resume of both executive leadership and GOP experience, and very old-line Republican issue positioning. Give him time and he could be a real force in this race.

8. Duncan Hunter – Hunter is the other guy running on immigration. He’s not quite as big a fire breather as Tancredo, so I doubt he will be able to push his campaign as far on the anti-immigrant schtick.

9. Ron Paul – Paul ran for president on the Libertarian ticket in 1988. That, near zero name recognition and no issue constituency make him a borderline farcical candidate.

10. John H. Cox – Despite having lost every race he’s ever entered (Congress, Senate, Cook County Recorder of Deeds), Cox has really high hopes for himself this time around. He’s going to self-finance much of his campaign (having already put in a quarter of a million dollars) – but he has to find a base in the early primary states that can buy into his outsider rhetoric or else he’ll be gone soon.

Newt Gingrich, George Pataki, Chuck Hagel, and Mike Huckabee were not included in this ranking because they have neither announced their candidacy nor formed presidential exploratory committees.

Posted by Matt Browner Hamlin
Monday, January 22, 2007 at 9:00 am

13 Responses to “TRF Power Line”

Something to say?

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website