Mark Mackowiak examines the electoral college strength of potential Republican nominees at Political Insider, and how the various candidates could alter the election. Here’s some electoral college math — just for fun.
Using the electoral map from 2004, where President Bush won re-election over Senator John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) by 34 electoral votes, Mackowiak writes that Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) could pick up New Hampshire (4) and Pennsylvania (21) but fail to hold onto Iowa (7): 283-255, McCain.
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-Massachusetts) would not pick up the electoral votes of his home state, he writes, but could pick up New Hampshire (4) and his birth-state of Michigan (17): 301-231, Romney.
It is quite possible for Rudy Giuliani (R-New York), former New York City mayor, to pick up New York (31) and New Jersey (15) but wonders if Giuliani would lose Iowa (7) and possibly Missouri (11). If he could win N.Y. and N.J.: 294-244, Giuliani.
But throw in Democratic candidates and it is all downhill from there as the GOP goes winless 2-9.
Based on these predictions:
McCain v. Hillary – Hilary wins 292-246 (picking up IA, MO, AR, and OH and losing NH)
McCain v. Obama – Obama wins 275-263 (picking up IA and OH and losing NH)
McCain v. Edwards – Edwards wins 290-248 (picking up NC, IA, and OH and losing NH)Romney v. Hillary – Hillary wins 275-263 (picking up IA, OH, MO, and AR and losing NH and MI)
Romney v. Obama – Romney wins 280-256 (picking up NH and MI, losing IA and OH)
Romney v. Edwards – Edwards wins 273-265 (picking up NC, IA and OH and losing NH and MI)Rudy v. Hillary – Hillary wins 281-257 (picking up IA, OH, MO, and AR and losing NJ)
Rudy v. Obama – Rudy wins 274-264 (picking up NJ and losing IA and OH)
Rudy v. Edwards – Edwards wins 279-259 (picking up NC, IA, and OH and losing NJ)
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