Let’s see how the candidates fare heading into the first full week in February. The fact that the GOP grassroots is not fired up by any one candidate makes these power rankings extremely fragile. One slip-up by any of the front-runner candidates could be disaster. If that were the case, it could create a hole for one of the second-tier candidates to surge up a level.

Listed below are the Power Line rankings for our third week in this endeavor with last week’s rating in parenthesis.

1. John McCain (1) — McCain holds the top spot but his stock is falling while Rudy’s is on the rise. Republicans have long referred to McCain as the media’s candidate, but with his stubborn support of increasing U.S. forces in Iraq and growing focus on his flip-flops over the last several years, he has fallen from the pedestal and replaced with Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel as the “new maverick” or the “McCain of 2008.” (Though some are not willing to give up on “McCain the Maverick” just yet.) The McCain camp, however, publicly says they do not wish to engage in primary “knife fights,” the hiring of key staff that specialize in such things says otherwise. South Carolina, however, is McCain’s to lose at this point.

2. Rudy Giuliani (2) — This may be a stretch for some but with Rudy recently telling the Associated Press that there is a “good chance” he will run for president in 2008 and stumps in key GOP states piling up on his agenda, Rudy may be answering those “Is he serious?” questions. He is on the up but I do not expect him to last long up. But with the media pulling away from Arizona Senator John McCain (more on that below), Giuliani is the immediate benefactor.

3. Mitt Romney (3) — His standing in polls show him on the upswing but the former Governor has a long way to go to catch up with Giuliani and McCain.

4. Sam Brownback (4) — Of the second-tier candidates, he’s the man to beat. Should one of the front-runners make a gaffe that irks conservatives, he who holds this position will benefit the most. The top-tier candidates are all viewed by some as moderates (McCain), flip-floppers (Romney and, growingly, McCain) or just plain liberal (Giuliani). A slip-up could turn supporters to look further to the right for their choice.

5. Mike Huckabee (5) — The Huckster could challenge Brownback’s base of supporters — Christian conservatives — but there seems to be a growing sense that Huck’s love for gifts and cash could catch up with him.

6. Tommy Thompson (6) — Thompson occasionally picks up notable backers from early primary states. The same cannot be said for any of those listed below. In my opinion, grassroots support and fundraising are the only things keeping him afloat. No candidate listed below has that combination.

7. Duncan Hunter (7) — Funny. Running as the “most conservative candidate,” so far, has not paid off.

8. Ron Paul (9) — According to the Technorati blog buzz charts, Paul pulls blogger attention comparable to Giuliani, however, that is likely mostly Libertarians. It kind of makes you wonder — which party’s nomination is he seeking?

9. Tom Tancredo (8) — Hunter made a pledge to build a border fence within six months of his presidency — effectively challenging Tancredo, and undermining the only real support base he has, on his home turf — immigration. He does not have the kind of online support of Paul but notoriety not seen by the Cox or Gilmore camps.

10. John Cox (10) — At least he has a website and the inner-workings of a national campaign. However, without ever being elected to public office and no money, he’s a razor’s edge away from being an “other candidate.” The true test of this will be if he is invited to participate in the upcoming GOP primary debates. If not, he could, feasibly, fall off this list altogether. I am not banking on a Cox appearance at the debates.

11. James Gilmore (11) — The Gilmore ‘campaign’ appears to be operating on radio silence. I haven’t heard more than one peep about his candidacy since he announced. Makes me feel like all that time I spent putting together his candidate bio will be all for nothing.

Posted by Matt Ortega
Sunday, February 4, 2007 at 9:00 am

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