The State Senate in California passed legislation that will speed up the date of the state primary from June to February 5. It is a move that, if passed as expected by the State Assembly and signed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, would significantly alter the primary campaign.
Back in January, Governor Schwarzenegger commented:
“I’m interested in making California a player,” Schwarzenegger said recently. “It’s the No. 1 place in the world and we’re kind of an afterthought when it comes to the presidential campaign … (We) want to make California relevant.”
The effect of an early primary for California, and other large states like Florida and Michigan, would be dramatic. Larger states, ergo more expensive for media buys and statewide travel, would work against all candidates but especially the second-tier.
With as many as 15 states that might hold primaries or caucuses Feb. 5, candidates could end up curtailing lunch-counter campaigning in the intimate confines of New Hampshire and Iowa to compete in the larger states on their heels. Facing advertisement buys of upward of $5 million a week to blanket California media markets, the field of candidates would likely be winnowed faster than usual.
“It will certainly make California a bigger player, but in the larger scheme it’ll increase the odds that we’ll be choosing among the top-tier candidates,” said John Geer, a presidential scholar at Vanderbilt University. “And it puts a premium on the invisible primary, the fundraising circuit.”
A week-long media buy in the Central Valley, the rural areas south of Sacramento, is about $500,000. In the more expensive San Francisco media market, it is twice as costly. That covers just a fraction of the state.
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