Last week’s TRF Power Line ranking included a major shakeup, with Mitt Romney being moved from #3 to #5 spot. Kombiz wrote the ranking last week and that move was a reflection of his belief that Romney has no chance of winning the Republican nomination and should not be ranked ahead of people who do have a realistic, if not yet actualized, chance of winning (Brownback, Huckabee). I tend to agree with Kombiz that Romney’s chances of winning are slim. However I think his fundraising power, high visibility, and history of doing well in most polls is too much to relegate Romney to the #5 spot.
I am moving Romney back to the #3 spot, but with the disclaimer that I (and Kombiz) do not believe that he is a top-tier contender. The top-tier is occupied by McCain and Giuliani – no one else comes close, though if Gingrich were to enter the race I would place him in the top-tier.
1. John McCain (1) — His website is likely to give graphic designers or anyone who isn’t color blind fits for months to come, but it’s functionality is being praised by big voices on the Right. We’ll see if McCainSpace gets more members than the John McCain for President – One Million for McCain Facebook Group (currently stuck at 1,461 members). One thing for McCain to worry about: skipping Saturday’s Iraq war vote to campaign. Sorry, but shirking responsibility to manage national security matters isn’t an endearing quality for a candidate trying to run on gravitas and maturity.
2. Rudy Giuliani (2) — There’s growing reason to think that Giuliani might actually be the Republican front runner now. I don’t see it yet, especially with his precipitous drop in popularity, inability to win in New York, and the revelations about his diva attitude. A lot of Giuliani’s downsides are parallel to the downsides that McCain and Romney have, but that says more about the paucity of Republican credentials among the CW top-tier than any comparative strengths Giuliani has.
3. Mitt Romney (5) — Back in the three-hole, but no longer top-tier. Like Kombiz, I don’t see Romney getting this nomination. The Republican base is wise on his ideological history, though some will still pretend that Multiple Choice Mitt has finally settled on the Right political philosophies and will never, ever sin again. But since so many Americans aren’t comfortable with Romney’s Mormon conceptions of sin, even that might not be a metric sufficient for judging the strength of his candidacy.
4. Sam Brownback (3) — Is anyone going to start questioning Brownback on the number of votes he’s missing in the Senate?
5. Mike Huckabee (4) — I’m most interested in watching how Huckabee’s anti-poverty talk resonates with the religious Right. Brownback is talking about helping people in his speeches as well and between the two of them, there’s potential for the conservative Christian base to be brought out to vote for something other than social wedge issues that are rarely the subject of legislation.
6. Tommy Thompson (6) — Thompson’s going to be in Iowa today, which is pretty much all I have to say about his candidacy right now.
7. Duncan Hunter (7) — He’s got to do better if Hunter/Tancredo 08 has any chance of materializing. As of now I don’t see either Hunter or Tancredo succeeding in making the wishes of the Bill Cutting wing of the Republican Party front and central for a campaign wide debate. Neither of these men have any chance of rising in these rankings if the debate does not start to become primarily about immigration.
8. Ron Paul (8) — Paul’s strong anti-war speech this week will surely helped him raise his profile online, though he’s pretty much the only Republican candidate having success with online organizing right now. If Chuck Hagel does not run, Paul could make a play for the anti-war voters in the Republican primary, a move that could assure him margin-of-error finishes in every state.
9. Tom Tancredo (9) — Americans are not sufficiently scared of Mexicans to raise Tancredo’s ranking.
10. James Gilmore (11) — Viva la website! Let the movement begin: Jim Gilmore has a website. In all seriousness, at least Gilmore can put out information about himself. He could be a legitimate candidate – a poor man’s Tommy Thompson or a really poor man’s Newt Gingrich; I say that primarily in regards to biographical qualifications and not ideological positioning, though all three would appeal to more traditional visions of the Republican Party.
11. John Cox (10) — I’m told Cox has robust early primary operations, but I don’t really get this candidacy. There are lots of talented, smart people who aren’t political careerists. Maybe John Cox is one of them. Maybe his non-political qualifications make him a good choice for the Republican presidential nomination. But I don’t get what Cox thinks he can accomplish by running; he surely must have a goal beyond the nomination, because he’s not getting the nomination. Has anyone seen Cox mentioned on any of the cable news networks?
As always, this ranking includes only candidates who have formally announced their candidacy or formed presidential exploratory committees.
Technorati Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Duncan Hunter, James Gilmore, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John Cox, Ron Paul, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson
2 Responses to “TRF Power Line, Week 5”
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[...] Last time we looked, John McCain was on top of the world, while Fred Thompson was just a washed-up ex-lobbyist/actor playing that guy on Law & Order who sits behind a desk acting gruff and never actually doing anything. Now McCain is in freefall and Thompson is wandering around the country, acting gruff and pretending not to actually be doing anything. How things change. [...]
Left by The Right’s Field » TRF Power Line: July 9, 2007
July 9, 2007 at 2:07pm