According to the survey, 30 percent couldn’t back a candidate who favors gun control, while another 35 percent have trouble with someone with three marriages.
That includes 48 percent of “born-again” white Christians.
But the survey also shows 56 percent don’t know Giuliani’s marital history, 68 percent don’t know his stand on gun control (he’s been saying it’s a state matter), and nearly 80 percent don’t accurately know where he is on gay marriage (he’s against it) or abortion rights (he favors it).
That suggests Giuliani is partly an unknown quantity nationally
I’d think that if one were a “born again” white Christian one would have great problems with some who has been married three times. If three marriages, public adultery, telling your wife you’re divorcing her at a press conference and being married to your second cousin only disqualifies 48% of “born again” Christians, you have to start wondering what this part of the Republican base actually means when they talk about “sanctity of marriage.”
Pew Research’s latest poll also has a lot of information on how candidate traits are affecting their support. Giuliani pulls in larger shares of white evangelical Protestants, white mainline Protestants and Catholic voters than either McCain or Romney. That can explained in part by this: “The poll also finds that divorce is not much of an issue, but an extramarital affair is still a political liability.” Giuliani had one of the most public affairs in American politics in the last decade, but that isn’t yet impacting his support.
Even though Giuliani’s years as mayor were marked by a personal scandal that played out in the New York media, the analysis finds that individuals who say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who had an extramarital affair, or one who has been divorced, are not significantly different in their attitudes toward Giuliani’s candidacy than are others.
Giuliani, McCain and Gingrich have personal histories of adultery and divorces that will challenge the convictions of values voters. At some point the cognitive dissonance between supporting Republicans who they think will espouse similar positions on social issues and the lives that these men have lived will start to reduce the support for the adulterous Republican top-tier. That is, I don’t think McCain, Giuliani, and Gingrich have much chance of growing their support among white evangelical Christian voters. Candidates like Brownback and Huckabee will start chipping into their support as their name recognition grows.
Technorati Tags: 2008 Presidential election, John McCain, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani
5 Responses to “Values Voters?”
[...] Recent Comments Emboldened » Blog Archive » Evangelical: Giuliani Has A Divorce Problem on Values Voters?The Right’s Field » McCain Losing Staff Over Shoddy Campaign Management on CPAC Straw PollEmboldened » Blog Archive » McCain Losing Staff Over Shoddy Campaign Management on CPAC Straw PollDavid Brown on Jerry Lee GiulianiMatt Browner Hamlin on Rudy’s Kids Hate Him The Right’s Field Asks: [...]
[...] I think Ambinder is right to slow down fears of Giuliani “fly[ing] off a cliff.” Giuliani’s appeal does not begin with his stances on social issues. Conservative voters know this about him (though not as much now as they will in six months) and aren’t forming their opinions of him on cultural issues. His reputation as a sound crisis manager with confidence on national security is. But the Bernard Kerik problem is one which undermines his national security credibility; he blew it by endorsing someone who he knew had ethical problems and ties to the mafia. [...]
[...] I think Ambinder is right to slow down fears of Giuliani “fly[ing] off a cliff.” Giuliani’s appeal does not begin with his stances on social issues. Conservative voters know this about him (though not as much now as they will in six months) and aren’t forming their opinions of him on cultural issues. His reputation as a sound crisis manager with confidence on national security is. But the Bernard Kerik problem is one which undermines his national security credibility; he blew it by endorsing someone who he knew had ethical problems and ties to the mafia. [...]
Something to say?
[...] One thing that Giuliani has going for him now (though this will change as the campaign progresses) is that 56% of voters don’t know his marital history. On the other hand, only 54% of voters are comfortable voting for someone who’s been married three times. Land made clear that Southern Baptists don’t have as much of a problem with McCain being on his second wife. [...]
Left by Emboldened » Blog Archive » Evangelical: Giuliani Has A Divorce Problem
March 7, 2007 at 9:35am