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A source that I trust recently had a long conversation with a staffer for Chuck Hagel and passed details of it along to me. Hagel is preparing to set up a campaign headquarters in Nebraska, but is in a holding pattern because former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is entertaining thoughts about running for president.
The fact that Hagel’s campaign would be held up or stopped entirely by Thompson’s entrance is very telling about what sort of campaign Chuck Hagel would run and who he thinks his constituency will be. For one, this tells us that Hagel is not going to be running on his opposition to the Iraq war alone. If he were, he wouldn’t be threatened by a candidate that has not defined the last year of his political life opposing the Bush administration on the war in Iraq. More likely Hagel will have to reach out to traditional conservative voters who aren’t satisfied by the social liberalism (perceived, actual, or former) of the three Republican front-runners, nor with the nativism and tepidity that define the second and third tier of the Republican field.
The problem Hagel faces is that Fred Thompson would likely suck up oxygen and get these voters without having to do as much leg work to begin with. Hagel will have to run on his arch-conservative voting record and fight the media’s representation of him as a moderate and a maverick. Doing so will mean a diminished emphasis on the war, as he spends time talking about what makes him a good conservative.
If Hagel is waiting to decide on running until Fred Thompson makes his decision, it is because Thompson’s entrance would greatly reduce Hagel’s chances of winning the nomination.
Technorati Tags: Chuck Hagel, Fred Thompson
4 Responses to “Thompson Influencing Hagel’s Decision”
While I agree that Hagel clearly would need to try something like this in order to be competitive, and Thompson might stand in his way, I’d take it in a slightly different direction.
While Hagel’s conservative voting record would need to be emphasized, and contrasted with the rest of the field’s flip-flopping, he could never get away (nor do I think he’d be inclined to try). Like McCain, his social conservatism is of the staid and non-fire-breathing sort, and not what gets him going. However unlike McCain, he’s never (that I know of) done anything to make anyone question his conservative credentials in that sense (other than for those who need someone driven by that stuff, and who would question his past support for McCain when he clearly was distancing himself).
Still Thompson definitely is the best positioned to fill that niche if he runs, given his Southern background and lack of visibility as a Bush critic. But otherwise, so long as he doesn’t unnaturally overplay his hand the way McCain has, Hagel could have a good thought here (and clearly, from this, if he ran it would be to win rather than make a point).
[…] Interesting speculation from The Right’s Field: A source that I trust recently had a long conversation with a staffer for Chuck Hagel and passed details of it along to me. Hagel is preparing to set up a campaign headquarters in Nebraska, but is in a holding pattern because former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is entertaining thoughts about running for president. […]
[…] http://rightsfield.com/2007/03.....on / by Matt Browner Hamlin  3-23-2007 […]
Something to say?
Your dead right on this one, Matt. Good job. It was curious how no one in the MSM could connect the dots on Hagel’s bizarre non-announcement. What was a go on a Friday became a holding pattern on a Monday. The only thing that happened over that weekend was Fred Thompson.
There is room for only one true conservative to make a run at the top. And Thompson is better positioned than Hagel (or Gingrich) to make that run.
Left by Dan
March 23, 2007 at 11:37am