Fred Thompson, former Tennessee senator, holds a commanding lead among the online Republicans, according to a new poll released by GOP Straw Polls.

Thompson recently floated the idea that he was considering a possible run and shows strong support in his second poll.

Of 6,477 ballots cast at press time, Thompson led second place finisher, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, by 24 points.

First Choice:

F. Thompson	2593 (40%)
Giuliani	1037 (16%)
Romney	770 (11.9%)
Gingrich	767 (11.8%)
Hunter	349 (5.4%)
Tancredo	293 (4.5%)
(none)	235 (3.6%)
McCain	154 (2.4%)
Brownback	138 (2.1%)
Huckabee	72 (1.1%)
T. Thompson	44 (0.7%)
Gilmore	15 (0.2%)
Pataki	11 (0.2%)

Thompson’s sharp rise in GOP polling shows a Republican Party in a dire search for a Reagan-esque candidate among a group of posers and right-wing reactionaries. (In recent weeks, glowing video endorsements appeared on YouTube: here, here, here and here.)

Fred Thompson holds a nearly 4,000 vote margin in acceptability, ahead of the next candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, another unannounced candidate.

(more…)

Fred Thompson, Polling | 6 Comments »

It looks like that Rudy Giuliani’s campaign website, in addition to being only marginally functional and poorly designed, had a major security flaw that left the personal information of campaign volunteers exposed to hackers.

“Anybody who knows anything about security could have found these problems in two seconds,” said Marc Maiffret of eEye Digital Security Inc., a researcher who examined Giuliani’s website at AP’s request.

Ironically Giuliani Partners offers cyber-security consulting. Perhaps their rates are too high for the Giuliani campaign?

Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani

Internet Operations, Rudy Giuliani | 5 Comments »

Mitt Romney’s plan to get the support of student fundraisers? Let them keep a chunk of the money they raise.

Participants in “Students for Mitt” will get 10 percent of the money they raise for the campaign beyond the first $1,000. While candidates often offer professional fundraisers commissions up to 8 percent, campaign experts believe the Massachusetts Republican is the first to do so with the legion of college students who have historically served as campaign volunteers.

“For the kids that want to get involved in a political campaign and they don’t want to spend their summer painting houses, they can help the campaign and themselves at the same time,” said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden.
…
Successful applicants to Students for Mitt get an ID and source code so the campaign can track donations made at their behest.

The participants are asked to contact members of their academic, social and family circles, and point them to Romney’s Web site. The students get 10 percent of all money above $1,000 that is contributed under their ID and source code.

I’m not sure how many students are down to raise five and six figure bundles for Romney, but any members of the Bush family that want to stand with Romney will likely do well.

I don’t think that there’s anything intrinsically wrong with letting students fundraise for Romney on a commission basis. If students can support themselves by being involved in the Romney campaign, more power to them. It doesn’t cost Romney anything and it will let students take a different role in campaign politics than pounding turf and making phone calls from a campaign office. I don’t know that this is a more advanced involvement in the campaign, though asking your parents’ friends for money is surely a handy trick for young Republicans to have. Romney’s betting that the kids already know this trick and thus will tap into a funding stream that comes from the outstretched hand.

Technorati Tags: fundraising, Mitt Romney

Fundraising, Mitt Romney | 2 Comments »

Earlier today I posted on Republican bloggers Matt Lewis and Soren Dayton’s travels in New Hampshire on John McCain’s campaign bus. Their coverage was positive and while both promised further updates, I expressed hope that their updates would include evidence that they asked McCain tough questions and weren’t just along for the ride. Lewis noted that in his time with the candidate, “McCain was never asked a single time (by a regular citizen) about campaign finance reform,” so he and Dayton should be commended for bringing up that important subject.

This afternoon I received an email from the McCain campaign on their recent “earned” media coverage from the Senator’s trip to New Hampshire. I say “earned” because of the twenty-six citations and quotes included in the McCain campaign’s email, sixteen were of the work of Lewis and Dayton. Seven of those sixteen were video interview clips from Dayton’s YouTube channel, but the remaining nine were quotes pulled from two posts by Lewis and Dayton. Seven of those nine were quotes from a single post on Townhall.com. Here are the quotes pulled by the McCain campaign:

McCain Greeted In New Hampshire With “A Hero’s Welcome.” “When I arrived in Manchester and began the drive north to meet up with McCain’s bus, I wasn’t sure what to expect. McCain had surprised George W. Bush in New Hampshire eight years ago, but since then a lot has changed. What I found was a candidate who received a hero’s welcome.” (Matt Lewis, Townhall Blog, “Blogging The Straight Talk Express,” www.townhall.com, 3/25/07)

· “[McCain] Always Gets A Packed Crowd In New Hampshire.” (Matt Lewis, Townhall Blog, “Blogging The Straight Talk Express,” www.townhall.com, 3/25/07)

Townhall’s Matt Lewis: “The John McCain Of 2000 Is Back.” “They say you can’t come home again, but Granite Stater’s who turned out to see the Straight Talk Express roar into New Hampshire this weekend, would probably disagree. If the response McCain received is any indication, the John McCain of 2000 is back.” (Matt Lewis, Townhall Blog, “Blogging The Straight Talk Express,” www.townhall.com, 3/25/07)

· “McCain Displayed The Energy And Intensity Of Someone Half His Age.” “Perhaps more impressive; McCain displayed the energy and intensity of someone half his age. The entire day, save for maybe 5 minutes, he was on the record’ and under the microscope. His schedule would have been rigorous for even a twenty-five year old. When I asked McCain about the stress of constantly being on,’ he told me: This is the fun part!’” (Matt Lewis, Townhall Blog, “Blogging The Straight Talk Express,” www.townhall.com, 3/25/07)
…
McCain “Given Rock Star Treatment” At Littleton Stop. “On the way up to Littleton, McCain stops off at a tavern and a barber shop to do some retail politicking. Once again, he is given rock star treatment.” (Matt Lewis, Townhall Blog, “Blogging The Straight Talk Express,” www.townhall.com, 3/25/07)

· New Hampshire Crowd Went “Wild” Hearing McCain Discuss His Pro-Life Beliefs. “Another lady (who seemed to be on the liberal side of the aisle) asked him about abortion. Without missing a beat, he responded: I believe the right to life applies not only to the born, but to the unborn.’ The crowd goes wild.” (Matt Lewis, Townhall Blog, “Blogging The Straight Talk Express,” www.townhall.com, 3/25/07)

McCain Talked With Voters In Littleton With “Great Ease And Humor.” “He handles questions with great ease and humor. During one Q & A session, a 17-year-old told him he will be old enough to vote in 2008. McCain interrupts him to ask: Will you be eighteen in time for the Primary?’ The crowd guffaws, and when the young man says he won’t, McCain quickly says, Next question,’ (which draws even more laughs).” (Matt Lewis, Townhall Blog, “Blogging The Straight Talk Express,” www.townhall.com, 3/25/07) [All emphasis, links, and formatting errors in the original]

I recognize that both Lewis and Dayton were able to provide coverage that gave a detailed picture of McCain’s campaign events with relatively little editorializing. Their posts speak largely for themselves as representations of McCain’s campaign strategy and persona. It’s not surprising then that the McCain campaign would parlay this “earned” coverage that came in exchange for giving bloggers access to a campaign email. But my God – quoting the same article seven times in one email. And not just quoting it seven times, but citing it seven times. This is yet another bad email from the McCain campaign — and I’m not even talking about the inconsistent formatting standards and typos!

Quoting two sources sixteen times in one email is a stretch. I’ll give them a pass on the seven Dayton YouTube links, but no such luck on the other nine citations. If you’re happy with the coverage you’re receiving, pull out a quote, link to it, and move on. If you can’t fill an email with all the positive coverage from diverse sources in the media, well, then it’s probably not time to send the email.

I think this email is yet another instantiation of the McCain campaign not knowing what it’s doing online. It feels similar to the micro video announcement cum major fundraising request, the decision to poll his email list to determine his campaign platform, and the abominable McCainSpace social networking function, which is part of McCain’s Imperial stormtrooper chic web site. McCain simply doesn’t have a great grasp of pretty much all the internet campaigning tools — email, website, blog, social networking, etc. Honestly while I have no vested interest in the competence and quality of the McCain campaign’s internet piece, I’m starting to become embarrassed for McCain.

Technorati Tags: John McCain, Matt Lewis, Soren Dayton

Internet Operations, John McCain | 7 Comments »

Soren Dayton and Townhall.com’s Matt Lewis spent time on the McCain campaign’s Straight Talk Express (The Remix) bus this weekend the Senator’s trip to New Hampshire. Dayton promises us oodles of video from their magical mystery tour throughout the week, though Lewis already has posted a snippet of video from their time with McCain.

Lewis: “Senator I’m from Townhall.com and I’m representing the blogosphere today.”
McCain: “Uh oh! I’m in trouble now.”

Except, of course, that he wasn’t. Dayton’s review of McCain was glowing, citing the crowds’ reactions to him at his tour stops and his comfort talking with the media for hours on end on his campaign bus as evidence of. Lewis’s brief post was equally positive. Both bloggers have promised more commentary and video content to come, though judging from what is already posted I don’t expect any of it to be particularly critical of McCain or reveal any major mistakes on his part. All of Dayton’s McCain videos can be viewed here.

I hope Dayton and Lewis used some of their access to McCain to ask him hard questions that are unlikely to be asked by regular reporters who won’t risk their access to McCain. The video evidence will show whether or not they did, though both have promised to report on their discussion of campaign finance reform with McCain. Evidently this was the policy highlight of their trip.

It should also be noted that this will probably close the deal on any hopes Dayton has to accessing the Romney campaign bus.

Technorati Tags: John McCain, Matt Lewis, Soren Dayton

John McCain | 77 Comments »

The Boston Globe takes a close look at the role a “secretive coalition that includes some of the most influential social conservatives” called the Arlington Group is playing in the 2008 Republican nominating process.

Over the past few months, members of the executive committee of the so-called Arlington Group have questioned several declared and potential White House hopefuls with the intention of settling on a single candidate, according to Arlington Group members and Republican operatives familiar with the discussions.

A nod from the conservative movement’s biggest names to followers at the grass-roots level would give a major boost to candidates such as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, whose past moderate positions on social issues have hampered his attempts to court the right, or former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who lacks front-runner name recognition and fund-raising numbers.

“If they were to get behind me, it would be a huge surge for me,” Huckabee said in an interview. “I wish I could tell you today that I’m the guy.”

Leaders of the group have interviewed Huckabee, Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, US Representative Duncan Hunter of California, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who hasn’t entered the race but may later this year. It’s not clear which other candidates have been or will be interviewed. The group has not yet questioned Romney, Senator John McCain of Arizona, or former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, according to those campaigns.

It looks like the Arlington Group isn’t satisfied with the top three Republican contenders, as they’ve focused on second and unannounced candidates.

The Arlington Group is a coalition of non-profit organizations and churches, they cannot legally make an endorsement of a candidate. Their goal instead seems to be to come to a consensus decision of who the best conservative candidate is and then individually push that candidate within their areas of influence. The Globe anonymously quotes one member as saying, “It is our desire that all of us, in a united effort, could marshal our resources to the same end.” James Dobson of Focus on the Family, Gary Bauer, Richard Viguerie and Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council are members of the Arlington Group. Their endorsements will carry weight with Christian conservatives.

Though members of the Arlington Group are not acting in official capacities as they interview presidential candidates, the line is blurry.

In addition to the fact that members of the Arlington Group’s executive committee are leading the interviews, [Arlington Group executive director Shannon] Royce, according to e-mails obtained by the Globe, has coordinated candidate visits and sent the campaigns an issues questionnaire to fill out. The questionnaire asks candidates their views on, among other topics, a proposed federal same-sex marriage ban, judicial appointments, the budget, and publicly funded sex-education programs. In addition, candidate interviews have been held at the Washington headquarters of the Family Research Council, an influential Christian organization that hosts Arlington Group staff members and meetings.

The Group will have to balance backing a conservative who reflects their values and a candidate who has the money and campaign infrastructure to win the nomination. It’s not clear that one person combines both requisites this election cycle. If a movement conservative can build support of heavyweight activists like Dobson, Bauer, and Perkins it’s conceivably for a religious conservative like Brownback or Huckabee to move up the ladder and gain viability. But for the Arlington Group to back a Brownback or Huckabee over the three front-runners or unannounced heavyweight Newt Gingrich, they would be taking a big risk in terms of what level of access they will have down the road. Endorsements of that type would effectively pit the religious conservative base against the anti-tax and homeland security wings of the Republican Party that have been excited by the Rudy McRomney candidacies.

This isn’t the first time that Christian conservatives’ lack of excitement has come forward during the Republican primary and it certainly won’t be the last.

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Endorsements, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback | No Comments »

Hotline is reporting that, according to his campaign, John McCain is going to fall short of his campaign’s fundraising goals for the first quarter of 2007.

Sen. John McCain said his presidential campaign would not meet its fundraising goals this quarter, and his campaign advisers acknowledged that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney may wind up raising more.

“We’re going to pay a price for it because we got a late start,” McCain told reporters in New Hampshire. “We’re not going to meet the goals we had.” He later said he did not know whether Romney would outpace him, but his advisers did not downplay that possibility. They also did not rule out finishing first.

McCain contends that his exploratory committee’s opening in December and the rush of the busy holiday season did not allow his campaign to begin fundraising in earnest until January. But once that month began, owing in part to a busy Senate schedule, McCain attended only two fundraisers and only two in February. There are twenty scheduled for all of this month, and another twenty in April.

Following up on the recent anecdotal report of McCain’s need to scale back a Pennsylvania fundraiser 60%, it’s likely that his March may not be stellar, even with twenty events planned. But while McCain campaign co-chair Tom Ridge tried to explain away the failure of that event in his home state on the grounds that donors simply aren’t thinking about the campaign yet, it’s clear now that McCain’s fundraising failures lie first and foremost with his campaign.

I’m very curious to find out how much McCain raises and where his campaign’s bogey was set (I’d guess around $30 million). It’s possible that McCain’s staff is spilling the bad news now because they are miles away from the goal. How devastating will it be for McCain’s faltering campaign if he only pulls in $10-15 million while Romney, according to Hotline, is likely to raise $30-35 million.

Technorati Tags: John McCain, Mitt Romney

Fundraising, John McCain, Mitt Romney | 2 Comments »

New numbers from the American Research Group show great promise for the potential presidential campaign of Thompson — no, no, not that Thompson — Fred Thompson.

In what appears to be a desperate attempt to find the ‘next Reagan,’ rank-and-file Republicans may have taken that straight to heart. Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee and “Arthur Branch” on television’s Law & Order, earned shockingly high numbers for a non-candidate. (Doesn’t hurt to blur the line with his character on Law & Order and then position yourself as the tough district attorney-type, does it?)

Fred Thompson goes on television and says he is thinking about running for president and — out of the gate — his numbers shoot up to 12 percent in Iowa and 10 percent in New Hampshire. It took former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney weeks to crack double digits in most polls.

Thompson passed Romney and non-candidate former Speaker Newt Gingrich in the crucial Iowa, and nipping at Newt’s rear in New Hampshire.

Rudy Giuliani, former New York City mayor, holds a ten point lead in Texas, but ties Arizona Senator John McCain in Iowa and trails McCain in New Hampshire by four points.

Arkansas, Fred Thompson, Iowa, New Hampshire, Texas | 9 Comments »

This really is the silliest of seasons. Today the silliness approached singularity.

Mitt Romney | 1 Comment »

Rudy Giuliani has a new website: http://www.joinrudy2008.com/index.php?section=3&pageid=90. Yes, that’s the URL you get when you go to his new homepage at joinrudy2008.com. And apparently that is just the beginning of the mediocrity of Rudy’s new site, according to The Bivings Report’s Tom McCormick, a web design expert. I’d say go check it out yourself, though I warn you that it may crash your browser.

Internet Operations, Rudy Giuliani | No Comments »