Archive for May, 2007

Duncan Hunter: Blogger

Posted by Todd Beeton on May 31st, 2007

Duncan Hunter has a guest post over at Little Green Footballs wherein he desperately tries to prove his pro-Israel bona fides. This is the part that sent the little lizzards into a tizzy:

Additionally, while the United States should do what it can to resolve the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians, it’s simply not possible for the Israelis to make peace with people who refuse to recognize their existence, kidnap their soldiers, and blow themselves up in crowds of Israeli civilians. So, until the Palestinians renounce terrorism and stop their attacks on the Israeli people, peace will be out of reach.

So, to sum up, Israel is full of “people” and “civilians” and those “Palestinians” are just a bunch of terrorists. Yep, sounds like just the right tone to strike over at LGF. Too bad Fred Thompson beat him to it and in far more fearmongery fashion over at NRO yesterday.

That balance of power is about to change, though. If Iran develops nuclear weapons, the very existence of this tiny nation of Israel will be threatened. The Iranian regime has left little doubt that it intends to see Israel “wiped off the map.” Hamas is using the same language, not coincidentally, and has announced it will begin launching missiles into Israel from the West Bank too.

If the world doesn’t act to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it must be prepared for the consequences of Israel defending itself.

With the web savvy Thompson in the race now, I think we’re going to see a lot of these guys popping up throughout the wingnut-o-sphere. It should be pretty painful to watch (in a can’t-look-away sort of way.) But if the first comment on Duncan’s post is any indication, he’s got way too far to go to break out of the field:

Thank you, Congressman. Loved your ‘Edwards at the beauty shop’ comment too!

D’oh, that was Huckabee’s line. Not even the LGFers can tell all those old white guys apart.

 

Clinton FBI Director Endorsing Rudy

Posted by Matt Ortega on May 31st, 2007

TPM Election Central:

Clinton FBI Director Endorsing Rudy
Louis Freeh, who served as head of the FBI under the Clinton Administration, is endorsing Rudy Giuliani. Freeh has been a critic of Bill Clinton, alleging that there was not a sufficient focus on security in his government. “Until 9/11, we lacked the political leadership and more important the political will to do what had to be done,” Freeh wrote in his 2005 book, My FBI.

In the GOP presidential debate from earlier this month, Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kansas) was among the three to admit they don’t believe in evolution.

Today’s New York Times has a guest piece he wrote explaining his position.

Polling Pennsylvania

Posted by Matt Ortega on May 31st, 2007

Here are some quick numbers in Pennsylvania collected by Quinnpiac and released today. (Hat tip to TPM Cafe Election Central.)

PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 GOP Prim: Giuliani (R) 28%, McCain (R) 11%, F. Thompson (R) 10% …
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Giuliani (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 43%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Giuliani (R) 45%, Obama (D) 40%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Gore (D) 45%, Giuliani (R) 44%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 43%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 McCain (R) 42%, Obama (D) 41%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Gore (D) 44%, McCain (R) 44%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Clinton (D) 50%, F. Thompson (R) 36%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Obama (D) 47%, F. Thompson (R) 32%
PA-Pres Quinnipiac May 31 Gore (D) 50%, F. Thompson (R) 35%

TPM Cafe Election Central’s Eric Kleefield picked up on a recent poll that shows former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani trailing double-digits to two leading Democratic candidates in New York.

The poll finds that in New York, Giuliani certainly does better than the other Republican candidates. Nonetheless, he still loses to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama by wide margins:

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 39%
Obama (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 40%

Sure, Rudy would do better in east-coast blue states than his GOP rivals, but would he really put New York in play in any meaningful sense? Not according to these numbers.

Other Republicans, as Kleefield mentions, do much worse than Rudy.

Clinton (D) 54%, McCain (R) 36%
Clinton (D) 57%, F. Thompson (R) 29%
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 33%
Gore (D) 56%, F. Thompson (R) 28%

Romney Update

Posted by Matt Ortega on May 31st, 2007

With the news about Fred Thompson’s imminent campaign filling the last several posts here at TRF, I wanted to shift gears. –Matt

Soren Dayton has kept up on the consistent inconsistencies of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Romney stated last year that he supported the Bush agenda on immigration, as well as the McCain-Kennedy legislation that would put the 11 million undocumented workers on a long path to citizenship. Conservative anti-immgration groups are now blasting yet another Romney flip-flop. (Read more of Mitt’s “Mitt-representations” on immigration here.)

Supporters are trying to use a 1994 flier to show their man Mitt has always been a conservative, but it may not have the desired effect. Says Dayton:

[…] Romney’s image has several problems. The first one is that he’s a simple “flip-flopper”. But the second is that he’s a sleazy panderer. The car salesman thing. That he will tell you whatever you need to hear for you to support him. That he has no principles. That’s what really struck me with this.

And finally, Dayton asks, “Did Romney belittle a veteran on Memorial Day?” See for yourself.

Updated 5/31/07, 11:11am: Romney outlined his foreign policy stance from the July/August edition of Foreign Affairs, published by the Council on Foreign Relations. Doubling the Guantanamo Bay detention center, however, did not make it in.

Thompson Campaign Gearing Up

Posted by Matt Ortega on May 31st, 2007

The soon-to-be-launched campaign of Fred Thompson was profiled in today’s Washington Post, along with some concerns that he is overhyped.

He is sure to face sharper criticism from those who say that his eight-year Senate record was undistinguished and that his credentials as a conservative are marred by his support of campaign finance reform. Some also say he is a lackadaisical campaigner, pointing to his sometimes rambling maiden speech last month in Orange County, Calif., as evidence that he is overhyped.

“If you’re an instant front-runner, you can’t afford a subpar performance coming out of the gate,” said one GOP strategist, who spoke freely about the campaign on the condition of anonymity.

Thompson’s acting background brought on many allusions to the conservative standard-bearer and one-time B-movie actor, former President Ronald Reagan. Wonkette put it best last March:

The anti-Hollywood Values party is again pleading for a Hollywood actor to be president.

As Todd Beeton noted yesterday, as Thompson’s stock climbed, Giuliani’s — the current frontrunner — plummeted. Neil Newhouse, pollster for the NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll, says that the former lobbyist’s entrance would hurt Giuliani and Senator John McCain in the polls.

The former Tennessee senator’s inner cirlce includes:

Thompson has been steadily assembling a circle of advisers. They include former FEC chairman Michael E. Toner, who will serve as general counsel; former Justice Department spokesman Mark Corallo; and Tom Collamore, a former executive at Altria, the corporate parent of Philip Morris USA. Collamore will lead the campaign effort, several sources have said. He has hired the firm McLaughlin and Associates to do the polling.

Former PATRIOT Act-installed U.S. Attorney, Tim Griffin, was reportedly in talks to work for the campaign.

Among his inner circle, a number of contacts from the presidencies of Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush are included, but his “closest adviser” is his wife, Jeri, reports the Post.

Updated 5/31/07, 11:30am: Read more on the pending Thompson candidacy at the New York Times blog, The Caucus.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson says that the Democratic takeover of Congress last November had nothing to do with Iraq.

Instead, the presidential hopeful contends, out-of-control spending by Republicans and “unrestrained partisanship” were to blame. Thompson’s Leon Panetta-esque perception of the 2006 midterm elections is, to put it mildly, just plain wrong. (But why should that surprise us? He did vote for the war in 2002.)

Here are the numbers to prove it.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Nov. 1-4, 2006. N=1,205 adults nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS. Results below are among registered voters.

         

“Which of the following will be/was the SINGLE MOST important issue in your vote for Congress this year: the U.S. campaign against terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, immigration, ethics in government, health care or something else?” Items rotated

       

.

    %    
 

Iraq

31    
 

Economy

21    
 

Health care

12    
 

Terrorism

11    
 

Immigration

9    
 

Ethics in government

6    
 

Something else

7    
 

Unsure

2


Newsweek
Poll
conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 2-3, 2006. N=1,045 registered voters nationwide. MoE � 4.

         

.

 

“In deciding your vote for Congress this year, which ONE of the following issues is most important to you? . . .” Options rotated

         

.

 
    11/2-3/06 10/26-27/06
    % %
  The situation in Iraq 32 29
  The economy 19 21
  Terrorism 12 14
  Health care 11 14
  Immigration 10 11
  Abortion 5 4
  Stem cell research 3 3
 

Other/None of these (vol.)

3 2
 

Unsure

5 2


CBS News/New York Times
Poll
. Oct. 27-31, 2006. N=598 likely voters nationwide. MoE � 4 (for all likely voters).

         

.

 

“Of all the problems facing this country today, which one do you most want the new Congress to concentrate on first?” Open-ended

         

.

 
    ALL Republicans Democrats Independents
    % % % %
  War in Iraq 39 25 53 36
  Illegal immigration 9 15 3 10
  Economy and jobs 7 4 6 10
  Defense/Military 5 8 4 5
  Health care 5 2 8 5
  Terrorism (general) 5 10 1 4
  Education 2 1 2 2
  Foreign policy 2 1 2 2
  Taxes/IRS 2 2 1 1
  Environment 2 3 1 1
  Other 15 22 14 15
  Unsure 7 7 5 9


Newsweek
Poll
conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 26-27, 2006. Nationwide.

         

.

 

“In deciding your vote for Congress this year, which ONE of the following issues is most important to you? . . .” Options rotated. N=875 registered voters, MoE � 4.

         

.

 
    ALL Republicans Democrats Independents
    % % % %
  The situation in Iraq 29 14 40 30
  The economy 21 21 24 18
  Health care 14 12 14 17
  Terrorism 14 28 6 10
  Immigration 11 14 6 12
  Abortion 4 7 2 2
  Stem cell research 3 1 4 6
 

Other/None of these (vol.)

2 1 2 3
 

Unsure

2 2 2 2

On election night, CNN had an exit poll that showed corruption being the top issue for voters.

sked which issues were extremely important to their vote, 42 percent said corruption and ethics; 40 percent, terrorism; 39 percent, the economy; 37 percent, Iraq; 36 percent, values; and 29 percent, illegal immigration.

But even taking that exit poll at face value and giving Thompson the benefit of the doubt, his claim still does not hold water. (Notice partisanship in Washington? Yeah, me neither.)

With Thompson all but formally seeking the GOP nomination, the former senator’s got to rattle off a series of right-wing talking points based on half-truths and falsities to catch up with the likes of Rudy McRomney.

So far, he’s off to a good start.

(Hat tip: Greg Sargent, TPM Cafe)

TPMmuckraker picked up on a Wall Street Journal article about former Senator Fred Thompson’s pending presidential candidacy announcement that former Karl Rove aide and RNC hatchet man, Tim Griffin, is reportedly in talks to join the campaign.

Backers look for Fred Thompson to use a June 2 speech to Virginia Republicans to step closer toward the race. Thompson allies have had discussions with Tim Griffin, the Arkansas U.S. attorney and Rove protégé, about taking a top job with the campaign.

Griffin, the RNC Opposition Research Director in 2004 for Bush/Cheney, would have his work cut out of him considering the current crop of Republican front runners.

Fred Thompson’s Stock Rises

Posted by Todd Beeton on May 30th, 2007

In the wake of today’s revelation that Thompson will indeed enter the presidential race, the share price of the will-Thompson-win-the-GOP-nomination stock over at InTrade Prediction Market rose $3.00 to $25.00, just shy of the $25.60 price of Rudy stock. Today’s surge catapulted Thompson over Romney who is now seen as the third most likely nominee, with a share price of $23.00.

Interestingly, Thompson’s rise in the market corresponds directly with Rudy’s fall. Beginning on May 18, 3 days after the last GOP debate (which gave Rudy a distinct yet short-lived bump), the market has increasingly seen Thompson as the likely nominee and, Rudy, not so much.

UPDATE:  Thompson is now up to $26.90, surpassing Rudy for the first time. Will be interesting to see if polls taken after today’s announcement are similarly bullish on Thompson.

Thompson’s rise:

Thompson

Rudy’s fall:

Giuliani

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