A new Pew Poll released today, which was conducted between May 30-June 1, confirms that Rudy Giuliani has a Fred Thompson problem to go with his pro-choice problem.
The poll finds that 37% of voters who’ve heard of Giuliani (which is 95% of the registered Republicans surveyed) say there’s a “good chance” they’d support the former mayor. That is the exact same percentage of voters who’ve heard of Thompson who said they’re likely to support him. Of course, only 58% of respondents had heard of Thompson so Rudy’s support is overall greater, but it demonstrates the level of excitement about Thompson among Republicans, which is likely only to grow once he officially enters in July.
In addition, during the post-debate show, Paul Begala cited this poll as evidence that support for Giuliani among conservatives is likely to wane as they become more aware of Giuliani’s views, particularly the fact that he’s pro-choice. While most campaign watchers think voters must certainly know by now that Giuliani is pro-choice, the poll finds that in fact:
just 37% of all registered voters could correctly identify Giuliani as the leading Republican candidate who favors a woman’s right to choose when it comes to abortion. Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, just 43% correctly identified Giuliani.
It was this finding that lead Paul Begala to state
[being pro-choice] will cost him the presidency one way or the other
His thinking is that Giuliani’s front-runner status is a function of the fact that a majority of Republicans don’t yet know he’s pro-choice so that once it becomes more widely known, the base will abandon him, thus precluding his winning the nomination. Begala continued to speculate that if Giuliani does by some miracle become the nominee, there’s likely to be a third party challenge from the right anyway, ensuring a Democratic victory.
Something to say?
