A brand new FoxNews poll shows some interesting movement among the Republican field since Fred Thompson’s non-announcement announcement last week (the poll was taken the evenings of 6/5 & 6/6.) Since they surveyed respondents both with and without Thompson in the race, it provides a pretty good picture of who is hurt most by his entrance into the race. (There seems to be a debate factor at play here as well since the polling took place the evenings of and after Tuesday’s debate.)
First WITH Thompson:
As in other recent polls, Thompson goes from single digit support pre-announcement to double digit support post. He surges 5 points to 13%, essentially tying McCain for second place (MOE = +/-3%.) The poll also finds Rudy and McCain slipping 2 points each from May, Romney ticking up 1 and the “I don’t know”s dropping from 24% to 19%.
Now WITHOUT Thompson:
Here Rudy stays static with 26%, McCain drops 3 points and Romney climbs 2 from May. The “I don’t know”s go from 25% to 20%.
A few conclusions (from someone who is admittedly no poll expert, if you are one, please weigh in):
- Interesting that the “I don’t know” crowd is identical whether Thompson is included in the poll or not. This would seem to indicate that undecideds are not breaking for Thompson but rather other candidates are bleeding support to him.
- He takes equally (4%) from both Rudy and Romney while only 1% each from McCain and Gingrich
- Since McCain dropped from May to June in both instances, his fall is likely due more to his pro-immigration solliloquey during the debate than to Thompson’s entrance into the race.
What do you all think?
Something to say?
