Jonathan Martin of The Politico reported yesterday that Newt Gingrich filed FEC forms for his group, American Solutions for Winning the Future. That doesn’t mean he’s running for president–he’s required to do so. But it’s interesting what those forms displayed. He raised $113,800 last month, including some big dollars from some conservative heavy hitters. He also spent $412,792 last month “on travel, lists, polling and salaries for seven staffers – including director of Internet strategy David Kralik, who helped create the Draft Newt website. … Sound a lot like a campaign?” Martin asks. Indeed.
Newt wouldn’t be able to transfer the actual organization into a campaign since it’s a 527 but he’s obviously using it as a platform to launch him into the race if he decides to enter. He’ll announce his decision after September 27, the day of his big “Solutions Day” conference, which should garner a lot of media coverage and could act as a policy announcement of sorts. He’s also big on symbolism–that day is the 13th anniversary of the unveiling of his Contract for America.
So why wouldn’t Newt run? I read one pundit somewhere suggest that Newt would jump in if Fred Thompson flames out, arguing that there is not enough room for two outsiders. I disagree. Newt thinks very highly of himself, to say the least, and he wouldn’t deprive the American people if he thought he could win. Thompson also plans to announce just after Labor Day, just a few weeks before Newt’s conference, so there won’t be enough time to judge the Thompson candidacy at that point. Perhaps Newt will delay the announcement.
In the end, I don’t think Newt will run. He’s an egomaniac and wants to be relevant again. But he doesn’t want to damage his reputation by losing the nomination, which he likely would. By stringing out his decision, he gets more media focus on himself and his issues (similar to Al Gore, though I don’t think he’s an egomaniac). The instant Newt, and for that matter Gore, announces he’s not running for president, he loses the limelight. One of Newt’s top informal advisers, interestingly enough, has signed on with Thompson, leading Mark Ambinder to predict that Newt “probably… won’t run for president this year.” I’d add “or any year.”
Something to say?
