New poll numbers from the American Research Group reveal significant improvement in former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s standing in Iowa, bouncing to 14% support after the Iowa Republican Straw Poll earlier this month.  ARG’s polling indicated that Huckabee had the support of only 1% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers last month.

While the ARG’s likely caucus-goer screen is notoriously loose, this is undoubtedly good news for the Huckabee campaign.  The poll puts Huckabee in third place in Iowa, behind Romney at 27% and Giuliani at 17%.  Huckabee beats Fred Thompson (13%), Newt Gingrich (7%), and John McCain (5%).

Notably for Huckabee, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo receive no discernible support in the ARG poll.   Ron Paul, on the other hand, receives 1% support in Iowa.

Crossposted at Chase Martyn on Display.

Mike Huckabee, Iowa, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | 2 Comments »

There’s obviously a lot to talk about in the aftermath of “WideStance” Sen. Larry Craig’s indiscretions, and certainly the Republican Party is throwing him overboard as fast as they can (probably because they know Idaho’s governor is a Republican and they can keep the seat if Craig is dumped). But it’s a bit shocking how quickly and mechanically Mitt Romney knifed the guy who was his former Senate co-liaison (no double entendre intended). We know that his campaign tried to scrub any mention of Craig within hours of the initial revelation. And we know that Romney was the first Republican candidate to trash Craig publicly. Add all of this up and it’s an unsavory picture, as John Dickerson notes for Slate.

After hearing about Larry Craig’s arrest, Mitt Romney ran from his former Idaho campaign chairman as if he’d been in the next stall. “Once again, we’ve found people in Washington have not lived up to the level of respect and dignity that we would expect for somebody that gets elected to a position of high influence,” the former Massachusetts governor told Larry Kudlow on Tuesday. “He’s no longer associated with my campaign, as you can imagine.” When asked similar questions after the news broke, most of Craig’s Senate colleagues demurred, saying they wanted to see all the facts before commenting. They might have been acting out of loyalty or might have wanted to avoid the topic of bathroom sex altogether. But Romney showed no such reticence, linking Craig—who denies he did anything improper—to Bill Clinton and Mark Foley, and the larger culture of corruption in Washington […]

Candidates treat endorsers-gone-bad the way Soviet leaders handled purged rivals: erase them from photos and never speak of them again. John McCain did this when the Florida co-chairman of his campaign was also arrested for soliciting sex in a bathroom (if Democrats do this, too, they’re better at hiding it). So did Rudy Giuliani when his South Carolina chairman was indicted for selling coke. Romney’s spokesman said they yanked the video because they didn’t want Craig’s troubles to become a “distraction.” But when Romney later sermonized against Craig to make a sweeping judgment about Washington, he was hardly avoiding the subject.

Dickerson links this to a similar incident in 1964, when an aide to LBJ was arrested on a “morals charge” in a bathroom, and Barry Goldwater insisted that they not use the information. Not that the GOP has been the part of Goldwater for a long time, but the speed with which Romney dropped Craig like a rock shows you how much they’ve changed. Hemmed in by an over-moralizing base, these candidates must simply be ruthless. Whether or not they figure out that their associates are hypocrites BEFOREHAND is apparently immaterial.

We’ve spent nearly two terms watching a President who values loyalty above almost everything else. Obviously Mitt Romney doesn’t share that trait. Of course we knew that; he’s not even particularly loyal to his own beliefs.

Advisors, Mitt Romney | 5 Comments »

Less than a week before he officially announces his candidacy, Fred Thompson has lost control of the media narrative. The conventional wisdom has gone from declaring him the GOP’s messiah-in-waiting to buzzing about his “lost momentum” and inept early attempts at running a campaign. ABC news has as good a summary as anybody:

He was primed to be the summer’s big blockbuster and the script was written in advance: A dispirited party finds its great hope in a swashbuckling Southern senator, riding to the rescue to save Republicans from themselves.

But since the heady days of late spring, when the Fred Thompson fever seemed to infect the GOP, Thompson’s pre-campaign has been more “Gigli” than “Gone With the Wind.”

He’s posted lackluster fundraising numbers. He’s faced repeated questions about his lobbying career, his years in politics, as well as his position on abortion.

An announcement rumored for June was pushed back to July, and now early September. His political speeches have been received coolly, with few grand pronouncements or policy proposals that have lived up to his hype.

His potential supporters have grown restless, giving other candidates room to claim the conservative mantle. And, most significantly, his noncampaign has churned through staff like so many extras; Thompson is already on his third spokesman, even though he’s had nothing to announce.

Now, the question for former Tennessee Sen. Thompson looms: Will this ex-movie star see his pilot picked up? Or has the Republican Party changed the channel?

In fairness, Thompson was supposed to post “lackluster fundraising numbers,” as per FEC law, he’s been “testing the waters,” not running an actual campaign. Indeed, one of his problems is that his fundraising to date has arguably gone beyond what the testing-the-waters provision allows.

For Thompson, it’s still the preseason — it’s difficult to tell how he’ll do once he’s in full campaign mode. But the early signs haven’t been promising, and his competitors have been playing hard for a few months now. He has already gifted Mike Huckabee an opportunity — an error he may come to regret. Now, in addition to the hard work of kicking off a presidential campaign, he’ll have to turn the entire media narrative around. It’s going to be a challenging September for Fred Thompson.

Fred Thompson | No Comments »

Continuing their brilliant “I hate brown people” pitch to America, the Right’s Field has forced the cancellation of a Spanish-language debate:

Due to lack of interest, cable television station Univisión has canceled its September 16 Republican debate in Spanish, the Miami Herald reports. Only Sen. John McCain agreed to participate in the event at the University of Miami.

The cancellation adds to the growing distance between the Latino community and most of the Republican field, who “also ignored invitations to attend Hispanic-oriented conferences in Florida organized by the National Association of Latin Elected Officials and the National Council of La Raza.”

It’s OK, Florida isn’t an important swing state or anything.

The GOP is being led by its nativist base right off a cliff. It is undeniable that Hispanic turnout at the polls will only continue to increase, and simply ignoring their issues because a certain strain of their supporters is consumed by hatred makes no sense. This is the kind of thing politicial parties do that ends up destroying them for a generation.

Presidential Debates, Endorsements, John McCain | 4 Comments »

Mitt Romney goes back on the air in Iowa and New Hampshire today with an ad that “emphasizes vigor, change” according to Jonathan Martin. Honestly, I think the ad is a little ridiculous, but Martin is right to note the not so subtle contrast between the running Romney and the golf-carting Grandpa Fred. Also of note: Romney sweats a lot. But knowing the Romney campaign, he probably just doused some bottled water on to his head.

Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney | 3 Comments »

Wyoming Republicans just set their primary caucus for January 5, leapfrogging the entire field (well, for now, at least). The RNC has already sought to punish other states who have failed to abide by rules governing primary dates. The Wyoming Republican Party doesn’t seem to be that worried about it.

“We’re first in the nation,” said Tom Sansonetti, the state party’s 2008 county convention coordinator. “At least for the next couple, three weeks until New Hampshire and Iowa move, which I expect they will.”

At this rate, the first primary will be held last week, and John Cox won, so why aren’t you on the bandwagon?

I hope that the end result of this debacle of a primary process this year will result in some fundamental change for 2012. There’s a massive free-rider problem here where the states have every incentive and no disincentive to move up. It’s horrendous for democracy.

Wyoming, States | 2 Comments »

Today is the second anniversary of the tragic levee failure after Hurricane Katrina that led to the flooding of New Orleans and the death of thousands. Clearly, this is a layup for Presidential candidates. You pay tribute to the city and highlight your plans for reconstruction, as John Edwards and Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have done.

So what have the Republican candidates worked up for this anniversary?

Rudy Giuliani: Three-line press release, no specifics.
Mitt Romney: Nothing on the front page.
Fred Thompson: Nothing on the front page.
John McCain: Three-paragraph press release, no specifics.
Mike Huckabee: Nothing on the front page, at the top of the site is a news flash that “Gov. Mike Huckabee to Participate in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Debate on September 5, 2007.”
Sam Brownback: Nothing on the front page.
Duncan Hunter: To his credit, Hunter was the only Republican to attend the “Hope and Recovery Summit” in New Orleans on Tuesday, and he writes about it. The story accentuates the positives, but at least he offers a tribute and some specifics.
Ron Paul: Nothing on the front page.
Tom Tancredo: Nothing on the front page.
John Cox: Nothing on the front page.

It’s not a scientific study, but it does offer at least a glimpse into the priorities of the Right’s Field. The citizens of the Gulf Coast and New Orleans aren’t on the top of the list.

John H. Cox, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, On the Web, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Mitt Romney | 13 Comments »

In a certain respect, we should probably give Rudy Giuliani the benefit of the doubt over the news that he will be attending this year’s 9/11 anniversary remembrance at Ground Zero: after all, he has attended every previous year’s event. But now he’s a candidate for president — and he’ll be the first and only candidate for office to make an appearance at any of the commemorations. As such, he stands to politicize the event, especially given the importance of 9/11 mythology to his campaign strategy.

Unsurprisingly, many victims’ relatives are outraged:

“He’s cashing in on 9/11 like it’s his own personal tragedy. It’s a photo op on a campaign swing for him,” said Jimmy Riches, a deputy fire chief whose son was among the 343 firefighters killed.

Sally Regenhard, whose firefighter son was also killed, said she was stunned that the city would ask a presidential candidate to speak there.

“They should have every other single presidential candidate then, because this is outrageous,” Regenhard said. “This is going to be seen across the country as a blanket endorsement from us. It’s totally inappropriate.”

No declared presidential candidate has ever spoken before at the ground zero ceremony; indeed, candidates running for local office have typically suspended campaigning on Sept. 11.

Of course, given how far in advance potential presidential candidates lay their plans, who’s to say he wasn’t campaigning in previous appearances? But by now any plausible deniability has evaporated: Rudy Giuliani is a candidate for president, in the thick of campaign season, and as such his presence at a solemn, nonpolitical remembrance ceremony is inappropriate. If he wishes to commemorate the victims — as he should, and as we all should — he should do so privately.

Cross-posted at The Daily Gotham.

Rudy Giuliani | 4 Comments »

For prominent Republican blogger Tommy Oliver, Mitt Romney’s ties to Larry Craig — and his comments on CNBC last night — are a bridge too far:

[I]t seems as though every prominent elected official, not to mention a large portion of the country, were aware of this man’s past transgressions. As organized and well researched as Governor Romney’s campaign is, if he didn’t know about it, then I have seriously overestimated his competence. By saying [what he said on Kudlow & Company], Romney appears to be feigning ignorance, and washing his hands of it. First of all, this man has put in a great deal of effort on behalf of Mitt Romney. He has lobbied senators on the governor’s behalf, and served as a campaign chair. He has worked to gain as much muscle for the campaign as possible. Apparently, Romney can overlook Craig’s shady past as long as it suits his purpose, but the candidate with the claim to higher moral standards has no remorse of washing his hands of Craig when it comes back to haunt him.

Oliver reminds us that this isn’t Romney’s only questionable relationship. There’s Robert Lichfield, Romney’s Utah finance chair, who was sued over sordid allegations of abuse of teenagers in the boarding schools he operated. And then there’s Mel Sembler:

But the link to teen abuse goes far higher up in the Romney campaign [than Lichfield]. Romney’s national finance co-chair is a man named Mel Sembler. A long time friend of the Bushes, Sembler was campaign finance chair for the Republican party during the first election of George W. Bush, and a major fundraiser for his father.

Like Lichfield, Sembler also founded a nationwide network of treatment programs for troubled youth. Known as Straight Inc., from 1976 to 1993, it variously operated nine programs in seven states. At all of Straight’s facilities, state investigators and/or civil lawsuits documented scores of abuses including teens being beaten, deprived of food and sleep for days, restrained by fellow youth for hours, bound, sexually humiliated, abused and spat upon.

According to the L.A. Times, California investigators said that at Straight teens were “subjected to unusual punishment, infliction of pain, humiliation, intimidation, ridicule, coercion, threats, mental abuse… and interference with daily living functions such as eating, sleeping and toileting.”

Oliver argues that Romney is an “incompetent judge of character” — or he’s simply “politically amoral,” willing to associate with any kind of lowlife as long as it works to his own advantage, but quick to wash his hands of his supporters and act righteous when they start to become a liability to him.

This, to me, seems consistent with Romney’s approach to policy. Romney’s famous flip-flopping — “pulling a Mitt Romney” — is likewise the result of his political amorality, his willingness to say and to pretend to believe (or maybe even to believe he believes) virtually anything so long as it advances his career. You wonder if he has any moral center at all, because he’s running a campaign that verges on the sociopathic.

Mitt Romney | 4 Comments »

It’s not just the DNC struggling to hold the line against early primaries:

The Republican National Committee plans to penalize at least four states holding early primaries, including New Hampshire and Florida, by refusing to seat at least half their delegates at the party’s national convention in 2008, a party official said Tuesday. […]

“The rules are clear,” said Tracey Schmitt, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. “Any state that holds their primary outside of the window shall be penalized delegates.”

In addition to Florida and New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina also face sanctions for moving their contests before Feb. 5. Two other early nominating states, Iowa and Nevada, will escape Republican sanctions because they hold nonbinding caucuses, not primaries.

While the DNC made an exception for New Hampshire and South Carolina, the RNC has not — which raises the stakes, given those states’ interest in maintaining their position at the front of the calendar. New Hampshire’s Republican chairman was sounding belligerent:

Fergus Cullen, the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, said the party would hold to its primary, now set for early January, to maintain its historic role as the first primary state, even if it had to accept the penalties.

“If we end up being stripped of delegates, that is the price we are willing to pay,” Mr. Cullen said.

The precise outline of the controversy won’t be known until after Sept. 4, when the state committees are due to submit their nomination plans to the RNC. But given the relatively more stringent rules on the GOP side, it looks like the Republicans could be in for an even dicier game of chicken than the Democrats.

UPDATE: Jerome Armstrong points out that, compared to what has happened among the Democrats so far, the Republican approach to the calendar fight is pretty low-key. Jerome argues that, unless the GOP winds up with a brokered convention, the effects of the showdown are likely to be minimal.

Florida, Michigan, South Carolina, New Hampshire | 3 Comments »