Soren Dayton has been tracking developments in the housing market and reporting on how they could impact next year’s election. His latest post on the subject makes a fairly compelling argument. Dayton looks at a number of key states — NE, CO, CA, MI, FL, OH — and compares Bush’s 2004 margin of victory/defeat with the number of foreclosures in each:
So, if you assume another 6 months as bad as these 6 months (and that the rates stay relatively stable in these states), Florida, Colorado, and Michigan would have a number of foreclosing households greater than the swing of the 2004 election results in those states.
Now, I am not saying that these are all Republican voters. Indeed, many of them will not be. But, by and large, people who think that their incomes will go up tend to vote Republican. In any case, with these large numbers, it is clear that this has the potential to become an election issue. Furthermore, with Nevada, Michigan, and Florida having very early contests, there is a real chance that Presidential candidates will have to take positions on these issues.
Candidates will need a message on this. Maybe they will need policies. In any case, electorally significant numbers of people will be effected by this issue.
I think Dayton is right, and I’ll try to track how the candidates approach the issue as the campaign continues.
Something to say?
