Much has been said here and elsewhere about the new University of Iowa GOP poll today, and most people agree it’s bad news for most of the Republican field. Out in Iowa, we were able to catch up with David Redlawsk, the pollster himself, and find out what he really thinks the numbers mean for the Iowa Caucuses and the race in general:
“For Giuliani I don’t think the game’s over [in Iowa], though he has dropped a lot and is well behind Romney,” Redlawsk told Iowa Independent. “For McCain it is a different story — I am fairly confident he’s done in Iowa. Iowa Republicans never really liked him very much, and now they have more reason to go elsewhere. But for any Republican who isn’t Romney, it is currently an uphill road.”
[...]
Several candidates are on the bubble of survival and Saturday’s straw poll may eliminate some. Redlawsk says the most likely victim is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. “I think Huckabee is out” after the straw poll, he said. “While we see some support for (Kansas Senator Sam) Brownback and for (Colorado Congressman Tom) Tancredo among caucus goers, we get close to no mentions of Huckabee at all.”
[...]
While Texas Rep. Ron Paul runs away with most self-selected, unscientific polls, Redlawsk’s research shows Paul with 2.4 percent support. Redlawsk called Paul’s support very small and very intense. “Paul is the Republican’s Kucinich,” he said.
3 Responses to “U Iowa Pollster Speaks Out on His Own Poll — Who Will Drop Out First?”
Something to say?
I find it very encouraging to see the notion that Huckabee is “surging” countered here. Huckabee seems to have a unique ability to scare the crap out of people on the left all out of proportion to his actual support anywhere. He is smart and articulate, with a great life story, so he could have been a real threat, but he seems to have no idea how to run a national campaign, and it does seem like he can’t last much longer (unless he re-appears as a running mate). Of course I may be eating these words two days from now.
Left by The Sleep Thief
August 9, 2007 at 8:39pm