The pace of the campaign is picking up, and here at TRF we’ll probably be updating our power rankings with greater frequency. Two days after the Iowa straw poll, it’s an ideal time to take stock. This edition of the power line generated a good deal of debate among the TRF crew — not so much about the top of the list (though there is some disagreement), but about the middle. Following his strong performance in Ames, Mike Huckabee looks to solidify his social conservative support, improve his fundraising, and benefit from the glow of earned media. He’s a skilled campaigner with momentum and a solid logic to his candidacy. So why not rank him above John McCain, who has none of those assets?
Here’s where we come to a little bit of a philosophical difference over what defines a frontrunner. McCain has some some things Huckabee does not: organization, money, name recognition, and a longstanding relationship with the media. True, we’ve reported extensively on the crisis in his campaign and the prospect that he might drop out of the race, but that’s just it: John McCain in crisis is still a far more established candidate than Mike Huckabee, even when the latter is having a good week. Their momentum arrows are pointing in opposite directions, but there’s a lot more separating a top-tier candidate from a third-tier candidate than one turn of fortune.
Last edition’s rankings are in parenthesis:
1. Rudy Giuliani (1) — There’s a long list of things that should knock him off the top of this table — but so far, nothing has. Will his Ground Zero gaffe finally do it?
2. Mitt Romney (3) — By some metrics — his leads in IA and NH, excellent organization, fairly strong fundraising, and of course Saturday’s victory in Ames — Romney could be judged the frontrunner. Yet, like his straw poll victory, it all feels a little bit hollow. Or maybe the word is “phony.”
3. Fred Thompson (2) — Thompson’s early momentum is fading, as pundits wonder whether he’s waiting too long to officially declare his candidacy, while Newt Gingrich methodically flanks him as the “none of the above” candidate. He says he’s in for real after Labor Day, but the man who once looked to be a conservative messiah is starting to come across more like a passing fad.
4. John McCain (4) — His candidacy remains in serious jeopardy, but at least the waves of “McCain deathwatch” stories have subsided. But they’ve been replaced by something of an eerie silence, which might not be much better. Will his rather tawdry flip-flop on immigration help McCain get things moving again?
5. Mike Huckabee (7) — He has always had the skills to be an effective campaigner. After beating Brownback in the straw poll, Huckabee can claim to be the social conservative candidate. If he can solve his fundraising woes and fend off his fiscal conservative enemies — two very big ifs — he might be headed into a higher tier. But on the big stage, his nutty tax ideas could hurt him.
6. Ron Paul (8) — Let’s be clear: there’s no way in hell Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination. If he does, I’ll eat my hat — and it’s not a particularly tasty-looking hat. But Chase pointed out to me in an email that Paul is creating a little movement, with deeply committed supporters and his own particular momentum. There’s something vaguely Dean-esque about it. My question is: given that this is essentially a libertarian movement, what is its future with regard to the GOP once Paul finally drops out?
7. Tom Tancredo (6) — Looney Toons Tom Tancredo finished a strong fourth in the straw poll, with almost 14% of the vote — proving again that in today’s GOP, you can go a long way just by hatin’ on the brown folks.
8. Sam Brownback (5) — Before the straw poll, Brownback could claim to be the guy who would unite the social conservatives behind him. But after losing to Huckabee — despite outspending him — Brownback can’t say that anymore. And if he can’t make that claim, there’s simply no point to his candidacy. He can try to turn things around, but suddenly it’s an uphill battle.
9. Duncan Hunter (9) — San Diego is nice. If I were Duncan Hunter, I would go back there.
10. John Cox (12) — See you in the Buzz Bin, dude.
Dropped out: James Gilmore, Tommy Thompson — I blame the media.
4 Responses to “TRF Power Line: August 13, 2007”
I know it would be a huge undertaking to do, but I would love to see a poll that looked at individual state polls and weighted Rudy’s lead according to how many delegates each state gets to the national convention. Rudy is doing much better in blue and swing states than in red ones — and those latter get a disproportionate amount of delegates. I would hypothesise that by that metric, Thompson might actually be considered in the lead — but proving it would take math, and math is hard.
the biggest delagate states:
florida, ny, nj, illinois, california, minnesota, penn, ohio, georgia, texas–rudy is way out in front in all of them.
Something to say?
nope, nothing will knock off rudy, not your smears or personal attacks, nothing. new cbs poll today has his lead growing, thompson’s dropping and romney’s still pathetic. thompson waited too long, romney has flip flopped far too much, and mccain was done months ago. the only question to debate is who will be rudy’s VP.
Left by matt
August 13, 2007 at 10:33pm