…observes the AP, and I think they’re right. New Hampshire Republicans tend toward libertarianism; the evangelical base Huckabee is counting on won’t be such a factor. Read the article for a more detailed analysis.
The piece includes this tidbit on the Iowa straw poll, which may or may not really reflect how the majority of Republicans in New Hampshire think, but which I found amusing:
“I think that voters correctly see the straw poll as a scam,” said Charlie Arlinghaus, a former Republican Party executive director who is now president of the Concord-based Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy. “The only bump he’ll get from it is the fact that he was scammed for less money than the rest of them.”
Incidently, the Josiah Bartlett Center is named after this New Hampshire statesman, not this one, as much as I wish the latter were the case.
3 Responses to “For Huckabee, New Hampshire is a Tougher Nut to Crack”
Huckabee is an adroit public speaker. He communicates his message in life-like, cogent terms, with compelling examples like the story he told (at the Ames Straw Poll) of what his then-11-yo daughter entered into the “Comments” section of a Visitors Book after visiting the Yad Vashem holocaust museum: “Why didn’t somebody do something?”
Very effective. Huckabee is all about calling his listeners to “do something,” to awaken them to their own empowerment, and summon them to action in order that “Main Street,” and not “Wall Street,” will prevail in guarding the values and beliefs upon which the Republic was founded.
Huckabee puts his listeners at ease, and reassures them, articulating clear concepts in a natural, easy style (no doubt something well-cultivated as a pastor). He’s not angry or demanding, like a Ron Paul, nor is he as “rigidly-scripted” as Romney, and his large brown eyes peer through a humble demeanor, drawing a striking contrast to a somewhat mechanical-squinty Brownback. One can easily imagine sitting comfortably with this man over a cup of coffee at the Main Street Cafe.
Most importantly, Huckabee convinces many that he is ONE with the FairTax grassroots movement. While many – like Romney, and others, who are invested in the current income tax system – seek to demagog ( http://snipurl.com/taxpanelrebutted ) the well-researched FairTax plan, its acceptance in the professional / academic community ( http://snipurl.com/econsopenletter ) continues to grow. Renown economist Laurence Kotlikoff believes that failure to enact the FairTax – choosing instead to try to “flatten” what he deems to be a non-flattenable income tax system – will eventuate into an irrevocable economic meltdown ( http://snipurl.com/meltdowninprogress ) because of the hidden aspects of the current system that make political accountability impossible.
Romney’s recent WEAK response to FairTax questioning on “This Week with Geo. Stephanopoulos ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW4fa6Z_4Po )” drew a sharp contrast between Huckabee and all other presidential front-runners who will not embrace it. Huckabee understands that what’s wrong with the income tax can’t be fixed with “a tap of the hammer, nor a twist of the screwdriver.” That his opponents cling to the destructive Tax Code, the IRS, preserving political power of granting tax favors at continued cost to – and misery of – American families, invigorates his campaign’s raison d’etre.
Of the FairTax, Huckabee asserts that it’s…
• SIMPLE, easy to understand
• EFFICIENT, inexpensive to comply with and doesn’t cause less-than-optimal business decisions for tax minimization purposes
• FAIR, FLAT, and FAMILY FRIENDLY, loophole-free, and everyone pays their share
• LOW TAX RATE is achieved by broad base with no exclusions
• PREDICTABLE, doesn’t change, so financial planning is possible
• UNINTRUSIVE, doesn’t intrude into our personal affairs or limit our liberty
• VISIBLE, not hidden from the public in tax-inflated prices or otherwise
• PRODUCTIVE, rewards – rather than penalizes – work and productivity
The latest is that Huckabee’s ascendency is underway, complete with prominent Romney defectors. Soren Dayton notes this at “The Daily Act” ( http://www.thedailyacts.com/st.....tory_id=59 ):
“Though he is mentioned derisively as a “second-tier” presidential candidate, former Arkansas Governor and Republican presidential aspirant Mike Huckabee is quietly making gains in New Hampshire, the earliest primary state.
“Debra Vanderbeek signed on last week to run Huckabee’s New Hampshire operations. Venderbeek served as chief of staff for former Rep. Jeb Bradley and is an experienced Republican political hand.
“I was surprised to see Deb go with Huckabee,” one Republican state legislator told The Daily Acts. “That fact alone is enough to get me to take a second look at him. I respect Deb’s judgment.”
Noah Scheiber’s account in “The New Republic” ( http://www.tnr.com/blog/the_plank?pid=134096 )would substantiate this:
“What’s not clear is whether these voters boarded Romney and Brownback buses intending to vote for the former Arkansas governor all along, or whether they simply came with an open mind–or even intending to vote for Romney or Brownback–before being converted. My hunch is the latter. There were four voting sites at Ames today: one on either end of a building called Scheman, one in an auditorium called Stephens, and one in the Hilton Coliseum, the main speaking venue. The voting area on the northern end of Scheman was closest to the Huckabee tent. It was also far and away the most convenient, given that the Hilton, the next closest site, was an absolute zoo. Nonethess, according to an unofficial tally provided by a rival campign, Huckabee received about 60 percent of his votes–some 1500–in Hilton. It’s not hard to imagine a lot of undecideds and soft Romney and Brownback supporters listening to Huckabee’s speech, then walking into the lobby and pulling the lever for him.
“Whatever the case, it’s hard to overstate the significance of Huckabee’s performance here. Combined, Huckabee and Brownback–the field’s two leading social conservatives–outpolled Mitt Romney today 33 to 31.5. If, as the results suggest, Huckabee emerges as the lone standard bearer for this group, he’ll probably end up with a block of support to rival Romney’s. (Most “Brownbackers” I spoke to would feel extremely comfortable throwing their support behind the Arkansan.) But, of course, just combining Brownback’s and Huckabee’s numbers actually way understates Huckabee’s potential ceiling. For one thing, he’s come this far running on fumes. It will be interesting to see what he can do with the fundraising boost he’ll enjoy after today. On top of that, there seem to be a lot of social conservatives currently supporting Romney because he’s running as the most conservative of the top-tier candidates. Now that Huckabee has demonstrated his viability, it’s not hard to imagine him peeling off a decent number of Romney’s conservative backers.
“A final thought: The political press is absolutely head over heels for Huckabee. (There were high-fives all around when it became clear he’d finish second.) He’s a genuinely endearing guy who can banter with the best of them–watching him with reporters brings to mind the old black and white footage of Babe Ruth jawboning with sportswriters. When you add that to the political media’s general affinity for underdogs, you can see how Huckabee’s about to enjoy some serious media afterglow, which will only further boost his profile. With Romney suddenly vulnerable among conservatives and McCain and Giuliani both languishing here–last Sunday’s Washington Post poll had McCain at 8 percent and Giuliani at 14, compared with Romney’s 26–you may well have just met your 2008 Iowa caucus winner.”
Are we witnessing the phenomenon that will re-awaken the Reagan-Democrats? It’s going to be interesting to watch, and see.
You decide:
“Huckabee Building Support in New Hampshire” by Soren Dayton in The Daly Acts
Wed Mar 14 2007 11:04 AM
“Though he is mentioned derisively as a “second-tier” presidential candidate, former Arkansas Governor and Republican presidential aspirant Mike Huckabee is quietly making gains in New Hampshire, the earliest primary state.
Debra Vanderbeek signed on last week to run Huckabee’s New Hampshire operations. Venderbeek served as chief of staff for former Rep. Jeb Bradley and is an experienced Republican political hand.
“I was surprised to see Deb go with Huckabee,” one Republican state legislator told The Daily Acts. “That fact alone is enough to get me to take a second look at him. I respect Deb’s judgment.”
http://www.thedailyacts.com/st.....added=true
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“VIVA HUCKABEE!” by Noah Scheiber in The Plank
08.11.07
“Whatever the case, it’s hard to overstate the significance of Huckabee’s performance here. Combined, Huckabee and Brownback–the field’s two leading social conservatives–outpolled Mitt Romney today 33 to 31.5. If, as the results suggest, Huckabee emerges as the lone standard bearer for this group, he’ll probably end up with a block of support to rival Romney’s. (Most “Brownbackers” I spoke to would feel extremely comfortable throwing their support behind the Arkansan.) But, of course, just combining Brownback’s and Huckabee’s numbers actually way understates Huckabee’s potential ceiling. For one thing, he’s come this far running on fumes. It will be interesting to see what he can do with the fundraising boost he’ll enjoy after today. On top of that, there seem to be a lot of social conservatives currently supporting Romney because he’s running as the most conservative of the top-tier candidates. Now that Huckabee has demonstrated his viability, it’s not hard to imagine him peeling off a decent number of Romney’s conservative backers.”
Something to say?
He’s right — there isn’t much support for Mike in NH.
What support he has is not solid. This is due to the fact that there isn’t much difference in the candidates.
Now when it comes to Ron Paul, the 10% he got in IOWA, like the 65% he got in NH, is SOLID SUPPORT. Those people’s minds are made up….
Once you are a Paul supporter, you never waiver. This must be scary for the others like McCain who has literally NO support now that he’s come out for illegals.
When people find out that Huckabee is for open borders he will be dropped like a rock as well.
Left by NH
August 16, 2007 at 3:30pm