Does Mike Huckabee have a path to the nomination? Sure, and it runs through South Carolina, as the New York Observer’s Steve Kornacki explains:
Suddenly, it’s not so much of a stretch to paint a scenario in which Huckabee contends seriously for the G.O.P. nod. His second place showing in the Iowa straw poll earlier this month certified him as the darkhorse to watch there – and may have marginalized Sam Brownback, Huckabee’s chief rival for the hearts of that state’s Christian conservatives. Romney is now the favorite in Iowa, but a strong Huckabee showing there on caucus day could give him the “Big Mo” that the state is famous for producing. Huckabee seems like such a natural fit for South Carolina – and the other candidates are such awkward fits – that he’d probably be the front-runner there if he could get an Iowa bounce. So a scenario can be painted in which Huckabee is the media’s “winner” in two of the first three states.
My caveats:
1) This still does not mean that Huckabee is a frontrunner. He doesn’t have a frontrunner’s money, organization, name recognition, or institutional connections. He may improve in all of these areas as the months go by, but his strategy essentially relies on vaulting up from nowhere at the very last moment.
2) Fred Thompson, despite his many problems, is still the man most likely to spoil the party for Rudy and Romney.
If Thompson can’t get his act together after Labor Day, and Huckabee can figure out how to raise money and organize a serious campaign, these things may change. Until then, the Huckster is little more than a nice story in the middle of a long, dull summer.
UPDATE: To illustrate my point, the latest daily tracking poll from Rasmussen (via Race42008):
Giuliani – 24%
Thompson – 23%
Romney – 13%
McCain – 12%
Huckabee – 5%
Huckabee may have escaped the bottom tier, but he’s nowhere near the top tier.
3 Responses to “The Huckabee Scenario”
Something to say?
Their take is nowhere near TIME’s.
Left by Matt Ortega
August 27, 2007 at 5:16pm