According to a New York Times/CBS poll (pdf), Rudy Giuliani’s real strength among Republican primary voters may be his perceived electability, not his association with war and terror. The poll shows mixed news for Giuliani. His favorability numbers among the general public are still very strong: 40%-Fav.; 14%-Unfav.; 34%-Undecided. And he continues to lead the field among Republicans:
Giuliani 27%
Thompson 22%
McCain: 18%
Romney: 14%
Other/None: 9%
Yet he finds himself in a somewhat precarious position, as the Times explains:
Nearly half of Republican primary voters in the poll did not know Mr. Giuliani’s position on abortion — he supports abortion rights — suggesting that he could be vulnerable among conservatives because of his positions on social issues. And many voters said that Mr. Giuliani’s experience as mayor of New York City, which he consistently trumpets, limited his ability to understand their needs and concerns and was not as good a background for the presidency as having been a governor or a senator.
While the poll found that Mr. Giuliani faced some big challenges in winning his party’s nomination, with 31 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters saying he does not share the values of most members of his party, it also suggested that he might be able to win over wary or unconvinced Republicans if he could make the case that he would be the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election.
It’s interesting to note the implication that, by repeatedly referring to his supposed “transformation” of New York, Giuliani may in fact be alienating Republican voters. But in a broader sense, the poll suggests that Republicans don’t particularly identify with Rudy, that his appeal to them is grounded primarily in the sense that he might be more “electable” than other GOP candidates in a general election. This is a potent logic in primary races, but it’s also shallow and volatile.
The longer Giuliani holds his lead, the stronger he’ll get as the Republican tradition of voting for the frontrunner sets in. But if he is relying too much on the support of people who don’t actually like him, but who support him because they think other people like him, he may not be as strong as he looks — particularly as the campaign heats up and all the reasons to dislike Rudy Giuliani come to the fore. At that point, he’ll need all the cushion his early favorable ratings can provide.
Edit: I mis-transcribed the horserace numbers in the first version of this post. Giuliani’s lead has in fact shrunk significantly.
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