I’m not much of a believer in national polls, but clearly Rudy Giuliani’s stock is dropping measurably. I’m not sure if it’s tied to specific policies, although I’d like to think that, any more than it’s tied to the introduction of a fresh candidate that conservatives who are holding out for a hero can now fill with their fantasies of a “real conservative.” They’ve yet to hear the truth on Freddie, but he looks good at 30,000 feet. And that’s how national polls are conducted.
Clearly Rudy is not selling the argument that he’s the only one in the race who understands the nature of the terrorist threat; one poll shows that he has no advantage on his rivals on the terrorism front. Given that, and the fact that his views on many other topics are completely out of step with the conservative base, I don’t see how he can turn it around.
But there isn’t a flawless candidate to be found, which is why Newt Gingrich is still rumbling that he might join the race. In fact, there’s an argument to be made that the GOP convention can be brokered. Mitt Romney is still leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, albeit by smaller numbers. He’s a hardworking candidate and is trying to use the Iowa bounce to the nomination. But his numbers haven’t moved an inch in South Carolina, or indeed much of the South, where Thompson runs strong. And in delegate-rich states like California and New York, Giuliani’s support hasn’t softened. So you can envision a scenario where Romney’s bounce isn’t quite high enough, Thompson sweeps the South, and Giuliani gets a lot of delegates in large states. Plus John McCain and Mike Huckabee are still lurking back in the pack, and in the non winner-take-all states they’ll grab at least some delegates. And I stand by the opinion that Ron Paul will throw a wrench into the New Hampshire race by taking at least 10-15% of the vote.
That’s a lot of muddle. And for a party that almost always nominates whoever is at the head of the polls on Labor Day the year before, it’s quite astonishing.
7 Responses to “The Remarkable Fluidity of the GOP Nomination”
and its funny, when gallup(often cited as the most accurate of all polls) comes out with a new poll a few days ago showing rudy up 34 to thompson’s 22, this site ignores it. but a more favorable la times poll comes out, and the leftists here jump on it….pathetic.
It’s like the Democratic National Convention in the sixth season of The West Wing. But the Republicans won’t nominate a Latino candidate.
actually the dems seem to be shaping up to that model even better: clinton (russel) is the establishment candidate who no one thinks can win, obama (santos) is inexperienced and naive and seems out of place, and edwards (hoynes) is the vp holdover who just doesnt know when to quit. if only obama had santos’ military background, maybe his crazy rambling to petreaus would have made some sense.
i do like parts of the west wing comparison, vinick was a pro choice moderate who won the nomination….
NBC/Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, LA Times, NY Times have all shown Thompson within striking distance of Giuliani. The Real Clear Politics poll average currently shows Rudy in the high twenties and Thompson in the mid-twenties — though incidentally it also shows Rudy’s support relatively stable. I confess matt I have a little trouble understanding how polls showing a surge in support for a self-proclaimed conservative from Tennessee, showing him gaining on a moderate from New York, can be described as the most “liberal” polls in any case.
[...] The Remarkable Fluidity of the GOP Nomination [...]
[...] As David has noted, a Gingrich candidacy remains a very real possibility; if anything, Fred Thompson’s failure to catch fire seems to make it more likely. I smell a new poll question. [...]
Something to say?
cherry picking the most liberal polls if a tactic of the left to try the smear rudy’s strength.
the truth is, rudy is still the national frontrunner, despite thompson’s bounce from his announcement. his organization dwarfs fred’s, and he is going to win the third quarter fund raising by a wide margin over thompson. he has also cut into romney’s lead in new hampshire, and has increased his lead in florida to nearly 15% over his closest rival.
also, polls show that with mccain out, nearly all his support goes to giuliani, adding anywhere from 10-14 percent to rudy’s national lead. if mccain has another bad quarter (which looks for certain) he may be out of this sooner then later. gallup has rudy up by nearly 20 when taking thompson on 1 on 1.
Left by matt
September 12, 2007 at 3:30pm