I’m extremely sympathetic to Kevin Drum’s take on The Right’s Field.
The Christian Right seems to be gearing up for a full-scale war against Rudy Giuliani, and it’s hard to believe he can win the nomination in the face of this onslaught. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, still has his whole Mormon problem, and it doesn’t seem to be going away. Meanwhile, John McCain is launguishing in nowheresville, Fred Thompson is impressing no one (and he’s already been blackballed by James Dobson anyway), and no one else is a serious contender. It’s really hard to see how anyone wins this thing.
In fact, even though I guess I don’t really believe this, it sure seems as the Republican Party is heading for a brokered convention this year. A battered, bloody, and bruised brokered convention. It’s the prediction that never comes true, but who knows? Maybe dark horse Mike Huckabee will win on the 27th ballot?
Let’s fill in the blanks here. The hard-core theocrats are making it a solemn vow to deny Giuliani the nomination.
It will be a powerful warning to those in a position of influence that, if the GOP turns against unborn children, a significant portion of its base will not vote for Republican candidates.
Nobody’s been impressed by Freddie Thompson, despite the fact that he didn’t drool on himself during the last debate will probably give him a boost.
I think I raised more money than John McCain last quarter.
And Mitt Romney wants to check with lawyers before determining whether to attack another country, an answer palatable to approximately no one (even though Rudy pretty much said the same thing only in a more lawyerly way).
So the scenario behind a brokered convention is this: Romney stays on top in Iowa and uses the bounce to win New Hampshire. But he can’t make a dent in the South, where Thompson cleans up, presumably. And Giuliani comes in with the big states like New York and California and Florida. Only California is not winner-take-all but district-by-district, diluting that victory. And any primary that allows independents could be a boost for McCain or Paul. And McCain won Michigan last time, which is early. And I still think Paul in New Hampshire has the possibility of messing everything up.
I don’t totally see it happening. But it’s kind of out there as a possibility.
10 Responses to “Where We’re At”
also, if gore were to enter the race, the chance for a brokered convention could be in store for the democrats, with gore winning the southern states, clinton winning alot of north eastern states, and obama taking california and a few southern states.
the clear distinction in this race will be will lefties become hypocrites and support hillary who voted for the war and voted to declare the iranian guard a terrorist organization or rudy giuliani who did not vote for the iraq war.
I don’t believe that Rudy is unbeatable at all! I guess we will just have to wait and see won’t we. The majority of the voters are just waking up to the election and are in shock that Giuliani is pro-choice. My guess is that Rudy will start slipping in the polls. Remember we aren’t having an election between Rudy and Hillary. Rudy is running against other Republicans. Lets leave Hillary out of this.
Something to say?
you are forgetting many of the southern states have proportional distribution of delegates, so even if rudy doesnt win, he will likely finish second in many primaries and recieve a good chunk of delegates. combined with the winner take all states, rudy is almost unbeatable at this point.
the kingmaking ability of the religous right died with jerry falwell. the second tier right wingnut leaders are powerless to stop giuliani.
Left by matt
October 12, 2007 at 12:27pm