I’ve been banging the drum for Ron Paul in New Hampshire for a couple months, saying that he’s perfectly matched for the state and could really shake up the Republican race there. This latest poll shows that he has some momentum:
10/15-10/21, 498 Reps, 4.5 MoE, no trendlines
Romney: 32.4
Giuliani: 21.8
McCain: 15.2
Paul: 7.4
No information on other results
Paul’s in front of Huckabee and Thompson without spending very much money or doing very much campaigning. I remain convinced that he could double this number in New Hampshire, which would have huge implications.
UPDATE: Obviously the Paul camp thinks so too, as they’re starting to spend their passel of cash in the state:
Ron Paul will be taking advantage of his recent fundraising success by launching a renewed push in New Hampshire.
Beginning Monday, the Paul campaign will begin running a new ad campaign in the state, costing about $1.1 million Additionally, he has four trips to the state planned for November, plus an 11-day tour scheduled for December.
Paul’s chances rely on the independent vote in the state, and in particular getting them to vote in the Republican primary as opposed to the Democratic one. If I’m an independent and I want an end to neoconservative imperialist policies, it may make sense to me that I’d have a better chance of stopping them by knocking out the neocons in the New Hampshire primary than voting for one of a set of somewhat similar candidates (emphasis on somewhat) on the Democratic side. This is the calculation Paul’s campaign hopes independents will make. I’m telling you he’s getting to 20%.
Something to say?
