While Rudy Giuliani’s new strategy appears to be lying in wait while Mike Huckabee knocks off Mitt Romney and then pouring money into the Feb. 5 states for a victory, he certainly has to register somewhere before that happens, lest Huckabee just blows past him. With this new poll showing him way down in South Carolina and with Huckabee gaining in Florida, the hopes of scoring an early triumph is looking more and more remote. And now, there’s a new friend on the campaign trail.

In front of the inn, two well-dressed men wore masks and held up signs meant to embarrass Giuliani for his close connection to Bernie Kerik, former New York City police commissioner. Kerik was indicted earlier this month on 16 felony counts including fraud, tax evasion and making false statements when applying for Homeland Security secretary. President Bush nominated Kerik on Giuliani’s advice, only to withdraw the nomination a week later when Kerik’s troubles began to come to light. Kerik could face up to 142 years in prison if convicted of the charges.

A man wearing a Giuliani mask has shown up to several Giuliani events in the state holding a sign that reads, “Free Bernie.” Today, he held a “Best Friends Forever” sign and stood next to a man in an improvised mask that resembled Kerik’s face.

If you’re basing your Republican vote on electability, do you really want your candidate dogged by these kinds of characters, along with NYC firefighters and 9/11 families for 9 months?

The “wait until the big states” strategy has never worked, and when the candidate is fading fast and followed on the trail by the skeletons in his closet besides, the possibility shrinks more.

Rudy Giuliani | 2 Comments »

It’s been a few days since Yankee Magazine announced its New Hampshire Cookie Primary. In it, the nice Presidential folks submitted their favorite cookie recipes. Readers can rate the recipes online, and a panel of judges will also vote for their favorites on December 14 after the recipes are baked by culinary students at Southern New Hampshire University.

And, shock of shocks, Rep. Ron Paul so far appears to be the winner – if you go by the ratings at the website to date. There isn’t a single rating for any of the candidates’ recipes, but for Mrs. Paul’s Apricot Coconut Balls, 99% said they would make the recipe again, and an anonymous commenter said, “This was so easy! A great recipe that the kids can help with!”

But if Mrs. Paul’s recipe doesn’t win in New Hampshire next month, count on Paul’s supporters to claim that the panel was biased because the culinary student who baked it didn’t use enough condensed milk.

Meanwhile, amateur gender studies specialist and fulltime journalist Stephen Dinan at the Washington Times points out an interesting trend. While Democratic male contributors were mixed on whether or not the recipe they offered was their own, or just their wife’s/grandmother’s, not a single Republican candidate indicated that he baked these cookies himself.

But I’m sure they all like to lick the bowl.

Internet Operations, New Hampshire, Ron Paul | 3 Comments »

Mitt Romney, the candidate who himself is forced to deal with popular prejudice toward his religion, is now trying to deny that he categorically ruled out the possibility of including a Muslim in his cabinet. Speaking in Florida yesterday, he put a different spin on the initial controversy:

“[Mansoor Ijaz's] question was did I need to have a Muslim in my Cabinet to be able to confront radical jihad and would it be important to have a Muslim in my Cabinet,” said Romney, “and I said, ‘No I don’t think you need to have a Muslim in the Cabinet to take on radical jihad any more than during the second world war we needed to have a Japanese American to help us understand the threat that was coming from Japan.

“The people who would be part of my cabinet is something that I really haven’t given a lot of thought to at this point, but I don’t have boxes I check off as to their ethnicity…instead I would choose people based upon their merits and their capabilities,” he added.

It’s true that Ijaz’s question did seem to be premised on the notion that having a Muslim in the Cabinet would be useful for countering jihadism, but it’s pretty clear that a critical part of Romney’s answer was based on a different premise. Romney said (emphasis mine):

“…based on the numbers of American Muslims [as a percentage] in our population, I cannot see that a cabinet position would be justified. But of course, I would imagine that Muslims could serve at lower levels of my administration.”

That’s not saying “it isn’t necessary to hire Muslims to help counter jihadism.” That’s saying that American Muslims simply aren’t important enough to merit representation in his government. Romney’s later claim that he doesn’t have “boxes I check off as to their ethnicity” is strange, because the existence of such demographic boxes is exactly what he implied when he made the statement to Ijaz.

Of course, Romney may simply be using semantics to try to weasel around some of the implications of his (and his party’s) general appeal to anti-Muslim bigotry. As far as the GOP primary is concerned, this controversy probably just helps him.

Mitt Romney | No Comments »

Could there be any other explanation for why Mike Huckabee’s latest campaign video/commercial is one of the top clips on YouTube today? After the former Arkansas Governor cracked wise about martial arts man/Texas ranger Chuck Norris, he had a tough act to follow. And you have to wonder if the Baptist’s endorsement by the National Wrestling Association’s former champion would have done the trick.

But nope, no one shouting, “WHOOOOOOOO,” at the top of his lungs. Instead, it was just a mundane reminder that Huckabee thinks he is the most Christian candidate for President, like we needed one:

Perhaps I am a naysayer, and Huckabee is the one who is in the know. He got 53,000 plus looks for the commercial. Compare that with millions magnet Mitt Romney who got just 17,000 pairs of eyeballs to watch his latest video.

Maybe it’s like a YouTube Caucus, and if Huckabee comes out on top in Wednesday night’s CNN/YouTube Battle Royal, he might be on his way to an Intercontinental belt in Iowa.

Mike Huckabee | 4 Comments »

Apparently, Mitt Romney has a lot of explaining to do.

We all know about his bigoted comments about how he wouldn’t appoint a Muslim to his cabinet because of the lack of Muslim representation in the country. It’s called government-by-demographic-table. Well, it gets worse. Apparently Mansour Ijaz asked Romney the question because of something he heard from people at the Nevada Republican Party:

TPM Election Central has learned that at a private fundraising lunchleon in Las Vegas three months ago, Romney said a second time he would probably not appoint a Muslim to his cabinet — and on this occasion, he made other comments that one witness described as “racist.”

The witness, Irma Aguirre, a former finance director of the Nevada Republican Party, paraphrased Romney as saying: “They’re radical. There’s no talking to them. There’s no negotiating with them.”

A second witness, a self-described local registered Republican named George Harris, confirmed her account.

We’ve gone from just kind of a dumb statement with an empty rationalization, to an out-and-out racist remark. This is “old-guy-from-Twelve-Angry-Men” territory:

Juror #10: Look, you know how these people lie! It’s born in them! I mean what the heck? I don’t have to tell you. They don’t know what the truth is! And lemme tell you, they don’t need any real big reason to kill someone, either! No sir!

[Five gets up from his seat]

Juror #10: They get drunk… oh, they’re real big drinkers, all of ‘em – you know that – and bang: someone’s lyin’ in the gutter. Oh, nobody’s blaming them for it. That’s the way they are! By nature! You know what I mean? VIOLENT!

Juror #10: [Nine rises and crosses to the window] Where’re you going?

Juror #10: Human life don’t mean as much to them as it does to us!

[Eleven gets up and walks to the other window]

Juror #10: Look, they’re lushing it up and fighting all the time and if somebody gets killed, so somebody gets killed! They don’t care! Oh, sure, there are some good things about ‘em, too. Look, I’m the first one to say that.

[Eight gets up and walks to the nearest wall]

Juror #10: I’ve known a couple who were OK, but that’s the exception, y’know what I mean?

[Two and Six get up from the table. Everyone's back is to Ten]

Juror #10: Most of ‘em, it’s like they have no feelings! They can do anything! What’s goin’ on here? I’m trying to tell you… you’re makin’ a big mistake, you people! This kid is a liar! I know it. I know all about them! Listen to me! They’re no good! There’s not a one of ‘em who is any good! I mean, what’s happening in here? I’m speaking my piece, and you…

Making broad generalizations of this type against Muslims may even help Romney in a Republican primary – heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if he leaked this himself. But this is an indisputably racist statement. Saying that all Muslims are radical and “there’s no talking to them?”

From watching the Republican primaries, I know pretty well that Romney is largely without core principles. He probably stumbled into saying this because it’s what he thinks the base of the party would applaud. He’s confused “never negotiate with terrorists” with “all Muslims are terrorists,” a confusion that he’s made before. I don’t know what’s worse – that a Presidential candidate would be this insensitive to say something so stupid, or that he would say it precisely because he expected to gain votes from it.

Mitt Romney | 1 Comment »

On days like these, when there’s not a whole lot going on and we’re all waiting to see whether or not John McCain and Freddie Thompson will actually cry when they concede defeat, thoughts turn to Alan Keyes. You see, we need Alan Keyes. And when I say “we,” I mean “writers of snarky blog posts about Republicans.”

So let’s take a look at his public schedule since announcing for President in September.

*

OK, so there hasn’t been a lot. But hey, getting on the ballot in seven whole states is hard work, so cut the guy some slack. And look, he traveled to Reno in October and Colorado in November, so that’s an undeniably consistent pace. Hell, maybe he’ll surprise everyone and go out for TWO events in December!

But really the Keyes campaign has been about what Republicans haven’t let him do. Here is a sampling of the news feed on Keyes’ campaign website.

CNN poised to exclude Alan Keyes from last big debate before primaries
Alan Keyes excluded from FRC event
Florida GOP excludes Alan Keyes from Orlando debate
NBC “chooses who is allowed to enter political arena” says Keyes
Alan Keyes excluded from Oct. 9 Michigan Presidential Debate

You have to admit, the campaign has a message. And that message is, “I can’t get out my message!” I guess it’s this selective removal from the debates that has forced Keyes to go directly to the people, once a month, to kickstart the grassroots revolution to renew America.

I can’t wait.

Alan Keyes | 4 Comments »

I’ve decided to forego mockery for one post in favor of state-of-the-race analysis. With a month to go, all signs in Iowa show a two-horse race.

Romney and Huckabee on the Republican side are in dead heats in Iowa, according to a new poll out conducted by Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster.First Read got a look at some of the numbers, and they show Romney at 26%; Huckabee at 24%; Giuliani at 14%; Thompson at 10%; McCain at 7%. 

This puts Huckabee within the margin of error, and probably close enough so that any victory will be a Huckabee victory on January 3, given the superior resources that the Romney campaign has expended (though Huckabee is making up a little of the difference with a strong online campaign). As Matt Yglesias notes, any hit to Romney’s front-runner campaign in the early states is probably fatal, and because Huckabee has so far not translated the success in Iowa throughout the nation, this probably has the impact of helping Rudy Giuliani:

At the moment, Huckabee and Romney are both trending upwards, but Huckabee is gaining on Romney because he’s trending upwards faster. If the bulk of Thompson’s remaining supporters (a not inconsiderable slice of the electorate) decide that Huckabee is the southern white Christian dude for them, then Huckabee stands a decent chance of pulling off an upset and Romney’s in big trouble. But if they decide that they need to do the pragmatic “Stop Rudy” thing and vote for Romney, then it really does seem like Mitt winds up sweeping the early primary table and Giuliani’s in big trouble.All of which is fairly conventional wisdom, but it’s striking when you get down to it exactly how helpful the Huckabee Surge has been to Giuliani. This is particularly noteworthy because the two candidates represent basically opposite tendencies within the conservative movement. It wouldn’t shock me if you saw maxed-out Giuliani donors cutting Huckabee checks. Certainly, I think it’d be a savvy play. 

Huckabee as Giuliani’s stand-in for the caucuses? Now those are some strange bedfellows.Like Mark Halperin in his apologia to the world of journalism, I don’t think this kind of horse-race analysis benefits a well-informed citizenry, so let me add that Huckabee’s faux-populism has so far yielded only a right-wing flat-tax proposal, and his latest ad and support from Tim LaHaye reveal that this is really theocracy with a kinder face.

UPDATE: Of course, if Huckabee can show the same surge in Florida, undercutting Rudy’s one chance at success before Super Duper Tuesday, then the whole nomination is a crapshoot.  And Fred Thompson might not even get his wife’s vote if this keeps up. 

Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani | 8 Comments »

The greatest catastrophe in modern American foreign policy history? The disaster that has cost thousands of lives, billions of dollars, destablized the Middle East, and dangerously weakened American standing in the world?

Rudy’d do it all over again!

Rudy Giuliani said yesterday he “never had any doubt” that if he were President four years ago, he would have invaded Iraq. He said he is now “even more certain” that it was the correct national security move.

“I actually believe that Democrats are going to agree with me on that by the time we get to the general election,” the Republican former New York City mayor said. Giuliani addressed a wide range of issues in an hour-long meeting with editors of the New Hampshire Union Leader.

The definition of insanity.

(Say what you will about NCLB, btw, but at least their PR people got the quote right.)

Rudy Giuliani | No Comments »

I just…. I can’t really…. I’ll just let them speak for themselves:

A blimp? A blimp!

Imagine.. the mainstream media is mesmerized as the image of the Ron Paul blimp is shown to tens of millions of Americans throughout the day (and throughout the month). Wolf Blizter, stunned and as if in a trance, repeats the words “Amazing, Amazing”.

As GPS co-ordinates stream to the website a map shows the Ron Paul blimp’s location in real time. The local Television stations broadcast its every move. The curious flock together and make a trip to see history in the making. Emails with pictures are sent, then forwarded, then forwarded again. Youtube videos go viral and reach tens of millions of views. Ron Paul becomes the first presidential candidate in history to have his very own blimp. The PR stunt generates millions upon millions of dollars worth in free publicity, and captures the imagination of America.

Please join us in our goal to raise $350,000 to make and fly the first ever Presidential Blimp in history.

It might be the first ever Presidential Blimp, but it wouldn’t be the first blimp to get into politics:

Ron Paul | 3 Comments »

So, 9iu11iani and Mitt Romney are sparring about the former Massachusetts governor’s record on crime, but none of the media stories actually, you know, correct the record. They give the Giuliani campaign’s side of the story, and the Romney camp’s, but never bother to look up the statistics:

If I were an editor at one of these fine papers, and my reporters turned in one of these stories, I’d tell them to figure out whether Romney or Giuliani is telling the truth. You won’t find it in either story. So which is it?

Turns out Giuliani was lying about the stats; crime, including violent crime, went down slightly in Romney’s term. If you’re surprised by Rudy’s falsehoods, you haven’t been paying attention.

Here’s the thing: Politicians lie. The only thing that will keep them from lying is if they know they’ll pay a price. And the only ones who can make them pay that price are the reporters whose job it is to tell us what’s going on. Unless reporters are willing to step in when candidates are arguing over “facts” and tell you which side is being honest, there is absolutely no incentive for the politicians to tell the truth. Rudy may well now be saying, “Hell, how about next time we just say crime increased on Romney’s watch by a thousand percent? Who’s going to stop us?”

Indeed.

Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani | 1 Comment »