With Iowa ready to explode in an ethanol-fuled burst of Caucus-going, the editors of the Right’s Field have been chatting amongst themselves about what we think will go down. And I’m personally ready to put my predictions out in the open.
In Iowa, it’s going to be Romney by a nose with Huckabee right behind him, and McCain not too far off, but a decisive third. And it’s going to shake out a similar way in New Hampshire, with Romney taking it, but McCain not far behind him again.
Based on this prediction, you might conclude that I think Romney is going to run away with the nomination, but that’s uncertain. What is certain that after a pair of “first in the nation” contests that prove indecisive, Iowa and New Hampshire, at least on the GOP side, will prove they’re no longer the testing grounds of presidential politics. States like Wyoming, Florida, and Michigan are already in full-on revolt against the current primary system, and the chorus they are building will only get louder after 2008. With a pair of narrow margins of victory for one candidate in the two states, Iowans and New Hampshireans will show that they are just as conflicted about the candidates as the rest of the country, and not the decisive, sound-minded judges of political character that we have assumed them to be.
But don’t take my word for it, look at what the campaigns themselves are doing. The most recent evidence is the anti-Mormon smear campaign against Mitt Romney in South Carolina uncovered by CNN. They reported yesterday on the phony holiday greeting sent to South Carolinians by “the Romney family” that plays up the Mormon faith’s history of polygamy.
What the tactic says is that while we’re a couple of weeks out from South Carolina, the campaigns are convinced that there will be no decisive victory in the Hawkeye or the Granite States for the Republican field. It’s going to be a bruising two months, especially for the Republicans, and the winner is going to have to marshal limited momentum into deft organization as February’s “national primary” day speeds forward like a mack truck. While it’s going to be fun to watch, it’ll be bad for those Iowa and New Hampshire power brokers grasping to hold onto their current positions.
3 Responses to “Say goodbye to Iowa and New Hampshire”
I also predict that the Huckster beats Mittens. In 3rd place will be Old Man McCain. I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Paultards break into double digits and lean past Lazy Fred the Crocodile at the line. Rudolph brings up the rear in 6th.
Eventual nominee John McCain will pick Thomas Eagleton Rev. Huckabee. That’ll be fun.
“What the tactic says is that while we’re a couple of weeks out from South Carolina, the campaigns are convinced that there will be no decisive victory in the Hawkeye or the Granite States for the Republican field.”
It also says that a bunch of Mormon votes are going to up for grabs if Huckabee gets the Republican nomination. I am not saying that Utah/the mountain west will be turning blue. I am just saying that it won’t look nearly so red.
Something to say?
I am going to predict that Huckabee wins in Iowa (and Obama wins for the Dems) and McCain wins in New Hampshire (with Obama again for the Dems).
Left by Noah
January 2, 2008 at 4:33pm