Regardless of any Waterloo-like stands in Florida, Rudy Giuliani is done. Why? Because his “momentum-proof” tri-state area firewall is gone, as best signified by the fact that Giuliani is now significantly behind John McCain in New York, according to the Sienna poll. Trend in parentheses (PDF link).
McCain: 36% (15%)
Giuliani: 24% (48%)
Romney: 10% (7%)
It gets worse: Last month, Giuliani was up 33% on McCain in the Sienna poll. That’s right, there was a 45% swing in New York state against Rudy Giuliani in one month. New York Republicans don’t even like Giuliani any more:
For the first time in a Siena poll, Giuliani had a higher unfavorable rate _ 48 percent _ than favorable just six years after the Sept. 11 attacks. McCain was viewed favorably by 56 percent of New Yorkers.
Another NY poll out today from Marist gives McCain an even bigger lead: 34% to 19%.
Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime had previously called Giuliani’s leads in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut “momentum proof.”
“Some of those leads are momentum-proof at this point,” he said. He stressed Giuliani’s margins in the New York tri-state area of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut versus what he called Romney’s “precarious” lead in New Hampshire where he is known, having been governor of neighboring Massachusetts.
Giuliani now trails in New York (by 12-15%), New Jersey (by 2-4%), Connecticut (by 23%), and Pennsylvania (by 16%), another February 5th neighbor to New York.
If Giuliani is going to lose badly in New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, and likely lose in New Jersey as well, he has no base of support. His only hope is in Florida.
So, how does Florida look for Rudy? Not good – he trails in every poll that’s come out in the last ten days save one, which shows a statistical tie. The Insider Advantage poll from last Thursday showed Giuliani with a one point lead over McCain and Romney. The Rasmussen poll out today has him down five to Romney.
As I said above, Rudy Giuliani is done.
10 Responses to “Giuliani Is Done”
and your slobbering all over the tri-state polls and how big a swing there has been glosses over the fact that all the support is extremely soft, and will likely shift dramatically again with the next primary. so now, like we all said 6 months ago, if rudy wins florida, he wins.
and even if all of your polls are accuarte browner, that means super tuesday will shake out the delegate leaders in this order: 1. mccain, 2. romney, and 3. rudy, meaning he will be put in the edwards’ position of kingmaker. even if rudy finished 2nd in ny, nj, pa, cali, he will still have alot of delegates, who could be released to another candidate were he to drop out in return for a spot on the ticket. and with romney’s resources, mccain wouldn’t hesitate to KO him on feb. 6 by adding rudy and his few hundred delegates, eliminating mitt. and mitt would have incentive, being in an underdog position to add rudy to combat mccain post-feb. 5. so one way or another, rudy is far from done, unlike chris dodd, wonder how that will look on a resume browner hahahahahahaahahaha.
as both Time and the National Review have pointed out, rudy will have considerable delegates down the stretch, either out front in the lead, or in a position to deal for VP, which considering he is a pro-choice new yorker, miles ahead of where anyone thought he would be a year ago.
National Review- ‘Giuliani should get a decent number of California’s delegates, maybe Delaware’s, probably a chunk of Illinois’. Then the following week, another chunk of Maryland and the District of Columbia’s. You figure he’s got a shot at the Feb. 19 Republican primaries, Wisconsin & Washington State. Five days later, Puerto Rico. On March 4, he should play well in three of the five — Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont.
His road to the nomination is extremely hard. His road to having a big pile of delegates at the convention to barter with is fairly easy.’
Time-Let’s imagine for a minute that Rudy Giuliani concentrates his efforts on four winner-take-all-states in his backyard: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut and Delaware. If he won those states and (for discussion’s sake) one quarter of California’s congressional districts, he would take home about 343 delegates.
Meanwhile, it’s conceivable that John McCain would direct his efforts largely elsewhere, at Arizona, Colorado, North Dakota, West Virginia — as well as all of California. If he prevailed in those four states and won half of California’s CDs, he could take home as many as 242 delegates.
Then, there are already signs that Mike Huckabee has his eye on a third set of states on Feb 5: the heartland arc of Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. If Huckabee won all of those (and they are almost all winner-take-all states), he would take home a surprisingly large 308 delegates. (This assumes Fred Thompson retires from the field between now and then, and Huckabee does poorly in California.)
And Mitt Romney has a few cards to play on February 5, too. He ought to do well in Utah, Montana and Massachusetts. If he cornered one fourth of California’s CDs as well he could add nearly 150 delegates to his tally. (Romney is ahead of the other Republicans in total delegates as things stand now; at the same time, Massachusetts is a proportional primary, meaning he’d likely not get all the delegates.)
Of course, things will surely turn out differently than the rough sketch above. And if this primary season has already taught us anything, it’s that there’s no way to predict how millions of voters will behave. “A big split probably won’t happen,” said a top delegate hunter for one of the GOP candidates. “Momentum has always kicked in before. But the possibility is there this time like it has never been there before.”
as for the tri-state polls, what they show is the strongest support, meaning voters who have made up their mind, are with rudy. the rest is soft support bouncing around with the days news. if rudy wins florida, that soft support should continue its pattern of bouncing from winner to winner and bounce to rudy. mccain has no money and no ground game at this point, and losing to rudy in florida would make it almost impossible for him to out-organize giuliani in rudy’s tri-state turf.
the overall point is you declaring anyone done in a race that has shown to be unaffected by momentum and inaccuarte in polls just underscores your stupidity and biased. yea rudy’s done…..just like clinton was done. keep on guessing browneye….
We should put up a new poll asking people when they think Rudy will drop out.
And when he does drop out we should have a big party. Even matt can come!
boy how about that dem debate. thats change huh? sure is amazing what can inspire a liberal…
matt, if the Democrats win the White House in November, will you disappear from this site?
I hope not.
Something to say?
you better hope not. as of right now, you have no one who can beat mccain. clinton is crushing obama, while trailing mccain in every poll. feb. 5 polls are meaningless until after florida, where a huge portion of the electorate began voting weeks ago, including more then 140,000 absentee ballots months ago, when rudy had huge leads. either rudy wins florida, and then goes on to take most of the super tuesday delegates, or mccain wins, securing a democrat loss in the fall. either way, clintons success combined with mccains only hurts the liberal wishes of a democrat in the white house. looks like the non-stop rudy bashing will net you an even tougher opponenet, nice going browner bwahahaaha.
Left by matt
January 21, 2008 at 1:32pm