When you go to an agricultural event like the Iowa State Fair — in a state whose GOP caucus-goers are largely farmers — you should probably know the answers to at least the most basic agriculture questions. Like what your position is on the most important bill for US agriculture since 2002.

Today, Duncan Hunter forgot his flash cards:

Iowa Independent asked Hunter about his vote against the 2007 Farm Bill on July 27 in the U.S. House. He said he couldn’t recall the specific vote on the farm legislation or exactly why he voted against it except that it was “probably because of the cost.”

Also, Ron Paul had a much bigger contingent of sign-wavers than Hunter. Hunter is going to lose.

And find out the story behind this photo here:

Maybe someone will save this for a direct mail piece. “SAM BROWNBACK LOVES PORK.”

Duncan Hunter, Iowa, Ron Paul, Sam Brownback | 2 Comments »

Much has been said here and elsewhere about the new University of Iowa GOP poll today, and most people agree it’s bad news for most of the Republican field. Out in Iowa, we were able to catch up with David Redlawsk, the pollster himself, and find out what he really thinks the numbers mean for the Iowa Caucuses and the race in general:

“For Giuliani I don’t think the game’s over [in Iowa], though he has dropped a lot and is well behind Romney,” Redlawsk told Iowa Independent. “For McCain it is a different story — I am fairly confident he’s done in Iowa. Iowa Republicans never really liked him very much, and now they have more reason to go elsewhere. But for any Republican who isn’t Romney, it is currently an uphill road.”

[...]

Several candidates are on the bubble of survival and Saturday’s straw poll may eliminate some. Redlawsk says the most likely victim is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. “I think Huckabee is out” after the straw poll, he said. “While we see some support for (Kansas Senator Sam) Brownback and for (Colorado Congressman Tom) Tancredo among caucus goers, we get close to no mentions of Huckabee at all.”

[...]

While Texas Rep. Ron Paul runs away with most self-selected, unscientific polls, Redlawsk’s research shows Paul with 2.4 percent support. Redlawsk called Paul’s support very small and very intense. “Paul is the Republican’s Kucinich,” he said.

Fred Thompson, Iowa, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Polling, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson | 3 Comments »

From Iowa Independent’s John Deeth, we get a pretty thorough preview of how this Saturday’s Straw Poll in Ames will affect the Republican campaign with interviews of Republicans on the ground, and it doesn’t look good for them:

U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback from Kansas is bringing in the band Kansas, and hoping he won’t be dust in the wind by day’s end. Congressman Duncan Hunter of California has hired an Elvis impersonator. And unlikely Led Zeppelin fan Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, will be playing bass with his own band.

“Take a political convention and mix it with a tailgate party,” said Johnson County GOP activist Todd Versteegh of Saturday’s Iowa Republican straw poll at Iowa State’s Hilton Coliseum in Ames. “If you’re a political junkie, this is a prime event.”

It may also be the last chance to see some of the Republican presidential candidates. Since its inception in 1979, the straw poll has grown from a low-key fund-raiser to the de facto first round of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

The day will see more losers than winners. What’s officially at stake for the candidates is no more than bragging rights. But the lack of something to brag about may be fatal. Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole and Dan Quayle all dropped out after poor showings in 1999, while Pat Buchanan left the Republican Party to take over the remnants of Ross Perot’s Reform Party.

In contrast, only one candidate — Orrin Hatch — dropped out after the actual caucuses.

“After next Saturday, between three to four of the candidates are going to drop out,” said Versteegh. “If you don’t want to see somebody potentially drop out, go support them.”

Read more here.

Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Iowa, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Polling, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson | No Comments »