The American research group has released three polls documenting Republican preferences in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The polls themselves show little to no movement among the Republican contenders. One would suspect that overall support for the current frontrunner’s are weak since McCain and Rudy have shown some fluctuations over the last few months.
Below is where the current Republican field stands overall. It explains why McCain is seen as the frontrunner in the race. He leads in all three important early states where organization is key. In Iowa the most important retail state in the primary he has a well respected team of professional operatives organizing on his behalf. It would be hard to imagine another Republican overcoming a three state sweep by McCain early on in the primary process. Giuliani is underperforming his national numbers as well as his national stature. To the extent that one can make assumptions this early, one has to assume that the more Republican primary voters know about Giuliani’s views on social issues the less they’re likely to vote for him in the primary. (State polls over time show Giuliani losing momentum in the early primary states.) To my surprise Romney is performing well and Fred Thompson who’s still undeclared but declared has room to grow and overtake Romney and Giuliani. The rest of the pack including Brownback trails. If I’ve had a bias going into this site it’s that Brownback could prove to be a serious contendor with a strong showing in Iowa. At this point he’s not underperforming.
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In Iowa ARG shows virtually no movement, except movement down for Giuliani and movement up for Romney. I’m fascinated by Fred Thompson’s position in Iowa. He doesn’t have the name ID of a McCain or Giuliani but he’s obviously filling some void in the field. Whether that materializes after he enters the race is yet to be seen but these numbers among Iowa’s core activists indicate that Republican’s aren’t excited about their field of candidates.
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In New Hapshire the story is slightly different. McCain leads with no momentum (but a bounce back to his previous position). Romney is finally performing like a Governor who shared 2/3 of the media market with New Hampshire at a solid 24%. Giuliani is losing steam in New Hampshire (surprising since the state is more libertarian and the poll includes a healthy dose of independent voters). Could Romney’s attacks on Giuliani be having an impact?
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South Carolina is a make or break state for McCain, or so the media says. McCain got walloped in the state in 2000 by GW and he’s not risking it by tying up every elected official he can get his hands on. Even in South Carolina the previous pattern hold. McCain holds steady over the last few months, Giuliani (and Gingrich) lose support and Fred Thompson does well (10%) in a state where he probably doesn’t have as much name ID and who’s voters are less plugged in than voters in Iowa or New Hampshire. Here Romney is under performing. I don’t know whether his stagnation has to do with name-ID and a lack of infrastructure or with evangelical bias against Mormons. We’re likely to know in a few months but I suspect the latter as the primary unfolds and Romney continues to build his name ID.
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Tomorrow’s debate word will be “Reagan”.
Iowa, New Hampshire, Polling, South Carolina | 6 Comments »