A tradition since 1979, the GOP Iowa straw poll is held the August before an election year to raise money for the state party and to gauge the number of people a campaign can bus in to Ames a candidate’s support in the state. While (or perhaps because) it really just measures the effectiveness of a campaign’s on the ground organization, the straw poll does serve as a bellwether for how a candidate will ultimately do in the caucuses (in Aug. 1999, the one-two finish of Bush and Forbes was replicated the following January.)

Usually, it is a must-attend for any candidate competing in the state but this year Giuliani has decided to buck tradition and skip the straw poll, although he vows to still compete in the caucuses.

“We are 100 percent committed to winning the Iowa caucuses in January,” Mike DuHaime, Giuliani’s campaign manager, said in a conference call with reporters. He said the estimated $3 million a campaign typically spends to win the straw poll will be used instead to prepare for the caucuses.

As the insurgent candidate in 1999, McCain could afford to skip Iowa but at this point for a frontrunner like Giuliani (or Clinton for that matter) to skip the first in the nation caucus would be a sign of weakness. So Giuliani’s strategy seems to be project strength even as he acknowledges that he’s behind the curve in the organization department.

Interestingly, the AP article speculates that perhaps Giuliani would be better off skipping Iowa altogether and instead focus on the delegate rich Feb. 5th primary states such as New York, California and New Jersey where voters would be more amenable to a moderate candidate, a strategy I’ve argued Clinton may just be contemplating on the Democratic side.

Iowa, Rudy Giuliani | 1 Comment »

A new Pew Poll released today, which was conducted between May 30-June 1, confirms that Rudy Giuliani has a Fred Thompson problem to go with his pro-choice problem.

The poll finds that 37% of voters who’ve heard of Giuliani (which is 95% of the registered Republicans surveyed) say there’s a “good chance” they’d support the former mayor. That is the exact same percentage of voters who’ve heard of Thompson who said they’re likely to support him. Of course, only 58% of respondents had heard of Thompson so Rudy’s support is overall greater, but it demonstrates the level of excitement about Thompson among Republicans, which is likely only to grow once he officially enters in July.

In addition, during the post-debate show, Paul Begala cited this poll as evidence that support for Giuliani among conservatives is likely to wane as they become more aware of Giuliani’s views, particularly the fact that he’s pro-choice. While most campaign watchers think voters must certainly know by now that Giuliani is pro-choice, the poll finds that in fact:

just 37% of all registered voters could correctly identify Giuliani as the leading Republican candidate who favors a woman’s right to choose when it comes to abortion. Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, just 43% correctly identified Giuliani.

It was this finding that lead Paul Begala to state

[being pro-choice] will cost him the presidency one way or the other

His thinking is that Giuliani’s front-runner status is a function of the fact that a majority of Republicans don’t yet know he’s pro-choice so that once it becomes more widely known, the base will abandon him, thus precluding his winning the nomination. Begala continued to speculate that if Giuliani does by some miracle become the nominee, there’s likely to be a third party challenge from the right anyway, ensuring a Democratic victory.

Polling, Rudy Giuliani | No Comments »

Two statewide polls conducted by Public Policy Polling find Fred Thompson extremely strong in early primary and caucus states. Pollster has the goods.

South Carolina:

Among 630 Republicans in South Carolina, Thompson (at 27%) leads Romney (16%), McCain (15%), Giuliani (14%), and Gingrich (11%) in a statewide primary.

Iowa:

Among 774 Republicans in Iowa, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 31%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (15%), former Speaker Newt Gingrich (10%), Sen. John McCain (9%), and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (8%) in a statewide caucus.

In addition, a new national GOP primary poll conducted by Insider Advantage finds Fred Thompson in second place among all GOP candidates, behind only Rudy Giuliani (although Thompson, Romney and McCain are all within the 3% margin of error.)

Giuliani – 28%
(Fred) Thompson -19%
Romney – 17%
McCain -16%
Huckabee- 4%
Brownback -3%
Hunter- 2%
Paul – 2%
Gilmore – 1%
Undecided/Don’t Know -8%

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered Republicans nationwide on May 30th & 31st (crosstabs here.)

These polls are the first to be conducted entirely on or since last Wednesday when it was revealed that Thompson would be taking official steps toward entering the race.

Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Iowa, James Gilmore, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Polling, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, South Carolina | 2 Comments »

Ruh-roh, looks like Fred Thompson was pro-choice during his 1994 senate campaign. Project VoteSmart has its Thompson page up and lets us in on his 1994 National Political Awareness Test responses. While Thompson opposed federal funding of abortions and supported restrictions such as a waiting period and parental notification, there’s just no getting around the fact that he checked the little box that said:

Abortions should be legal in all circumstances as long as the procedure is completed within the first trimester of the pregnancy.

H/t to dailykos diarist redstatehatemonitor for digging up this video from 1994 of Thompson getting all nuancy about an issue that the right generally see as pretty black and white. The gist of Thompson’s position is that it should be left up to the states, something that once upon a time was a conservative value.

In recent interviews, Thompson has insisted he’s “pro-life” but seems uneasy with the topic. Take for instance this interview with Chris Wallace.

Wallace: Let’s do a lightning round, quick questions, quick answers on a variety of issues to see where Fred Thompson stands. Abortion.

Thompson: Pro-life.

[uncomfortable silence]

Wallace: Would you like to overturn Roe v. Wade?

Thompson: You said lightning round now, if you want more, give me another question, and I’ll work through it with you.

[ain't he folksy?]

Wallace: [chuckling] Do you want to overturn Roe vs Wade?

Thompson: I think Roe vs. Wade was bad law and bad medical science and the way to address that is through good judges. I don’t think the court ought to wake up one day and make new social policy for the country, it’s contrary to what it’s been for the last 200 years, we have a process in this country to do that, judges shouldn’t be doing that, that’s what happened in that case, I think it’s wrong.

So…no?

And then in an interview with Hannity, Thompson said:

I am pro-life. I have a 100% voting record on the pro-life issues…and uh, again, I think we ought to try be tolerant of various views on this thing, but in terms of government policy, I think we ought to discourage [abortion.]

Which caused one conservative Catholic blogger to say:

In the Hannity clip, Thompson says: “I think we ought to try be tolerant of various views on this thing…”

Red flag! That bothers me, because I’m not sure what he means when he says tolerant.

Yes, tolerance is scary!

But really, what does the right expect from a guy who’s spent so much time in heathen Hollywood? Fact is, they’re so desperate for the next Ronald Reagan (who, himself, was for abortion rights before he was against them,) that more likely than not they’ll be content with vague pro-life pronouncements mixed with a fierce GWOT hawkishness to make up for less than conservative views on social issues. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of pure conservatives to choose from among the batch of old white guys they have running; they just can’t seem to break 3%.

Fred Thompson | No Comments »

Duncan Hunter has a guest post over at Little Green Footballs wherein he desperately tries to prove his pro-Israel bona fides. This is the part that sent the little lizzards into a tizzy:

Additionally, while the United States should do what it can to resolve the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians, it’s simply not possible for the Israelis to make peace with people who refuse to recognize their existence, kidnap their soldiers, and blow themselves up in crowds of Israeli civilians. So, until the Palestinians renounce terrorism and stop their attacks on the Israeli people, peace will be out of reach.

So, to sum up, Israel is full of “people” and “civilians” and those “Palestinians” are just a bunch of terrorists. Yep, sounds like just the right tone to strike over at LGF. Too bad Fred Thompson beat him to it and in far more fearmongery fashion over at NRO yesterday.

That balance of power is about to change, though. If Iran develops nuclear weapons, the very existence of this tiny nation of Israel will be threatened. The Iranian regime has left little doubt that it intends to see Israel “wiped off the map.” Hamas is using the same language, not coincidentally, and has announced it will begin launching missiles into Israel from the West Bank too.

If the world doesn’t act to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it must be prepared for the consequences of Israel defending itself.

With the web savvy Thompson in the race now, I think we’re going to see a lot of these guys popping up throughout the wingnut-o-sphere. It should be pretty painful to watch (in a can’t-look-away sort of way.) But if the first comment on Duncan’s post is any indication, he’s got way too far to go to break out of the field:

Thank you, Congressman. Loved your ‘Edwards at the beauty shop’ comment too!

D’oh, that was Huckabee’s line. Not even the LGFers can tell all those old white guys apart.

Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson | 1 Comment »

In the wake of today’s revelation that Thompson will indeed enter the presidential race, the share price of the will-Thompson-win-the-GOP-nomination stock over at InTrade Prediction Market rose $3.00 to $25.00, just shy of the $25.60 price of Rudy stock. Today’s surge catapulted Thompson over Romney who is now seen as the third most likely nominee, with a share price of $23.00.

Interestingly, Thompson’s rise in the market corresponds directly with Rudy’s fall. Beginning on May 18, 3 days after the last GOP debate (which gave Rudy a distinct yet short-lived bump), the market has increasingly seen Thompson as the likely nominee and, Rudy, not so much.

UPDATE:  Thompson is now up to $26.90, surpassing Rudy for the first time. Will be interesting to see if polls taken after today’s announcement are similarly bullish on Thompson.

Thompson’s rise:

Rudy’s fall:

Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani | 1 Comment »

Newt Gingrich rocked the Nixon Library in Orange County, CA on Thursday drawing 1,200 people to the latest stop on his “Pearl Harbor” book tour. Gingrich reportedly spoke for 19 minutes about the book, then took questions for 30 about US policy and his possible presidential run.

Martin Wisckol of the Orange County Register posted his one-on-one interview with Newt on the Total Buzz blog.

On illegal immigration:

“If you’re here illegally, rather than pay thousands of dollars to the federal government, take the same amount of money, go back home, and apply for a temporary worker visa…Why pay it to the federal government when they can pay it to an airline?”

On the presidential field:

“I’d like to see real, decisive leadership. I’d like to see a willingness to reject the standup, American Idol-style non-debates and insist on genuine dialogue. I’d like to see proposals that are fundamental and certain.”

And on the war on terror:

“Not good. … Over the last four years, I’ve come to realize the problems are much deeper than I thought they were…. This is a crisis that may cost us two or three cities.”

Umm, okaay not really sure what that even means. Glad to see he’s got the requisite fearmongering down though.

But the highlight for me was this best.picture.ever taken at his appearance. Look how fast his little hands are moving.

I think this calls for a caption contest.

Newt Gingrich | No Comments »

Former Virginia governor Jim “1%” Gilmore parlayed his “Rudy McRomney” stump speech line into a much coveted Sunday morning spot with George Stephanopoulos yesterday. In his appearance Gilmore continued to hit his main theme that:

The three people who have gotten themselves up into the eyes of the media and therefore continue to get their poll numbers up are not conservative candidates.

Gilmore says that HE is the one true “consistent conservative” in the race and in his campaign web video even channels a certain former presidential primary insurgent by saying:

I will represent the Republican wing of the Republican Party.

But interestingly, what struck me about his responses to Stephanopoulos’s questions about immigration and Iraq was just how relatively moderate he is. On one hand Gilmore’s views are firmly within the spectrum of most Republican primary voters: he opposes “amnesty,” as he calls a path to citizenship and is against a withdrawal from Iraq anytime soon. But as he elaborates on his views a sort of complex pragmatism emerges. For example, Gilmore opposes a “Berlin wall along the southern border” and advocates for a guest worker program rather than bussing the illegal immigrants who are already here back to their home countries. And on Iraq, Gilmore sounds downright Paulian when he speaks about Iraq in terms of the rising anger across the world such as in Iran, between the Shia and Sunnis, between Israel and the Palestinians, etc. It’s an anger, he says, that US foreign policy has long ignored.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not about to vote for the guy or anything but I do have an idea for a new campaign slogan for him:

Jim Gilmore: the only sane one.

James Gilmore | No Comments »

On Wednesday’s Hardball, this was how Chris Matthews introduced a segment on Giuliani’s strength among gun-owners:

Rudy Giuliani has had a tough time convincing some social conservatives that he‘s one of them. But, when it comes to that key conservative value, gun ownership, the Second Amendment, Rudy is leading the pack.

He went on to cite a Gallup Poll that has Rudy’s favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) at +43, a number that far out paces his rivals (McCain: +25, Thompson: +22, Romney: +12.) Matthews went on to say how these results prove something he’s been saying for years…

[I]t‘s one of those interesting things that I have been saying for two years…that Giuliani has an appeal to the right as Mr. Tough Guy. And, even though he‘s tough on gun control, because he‘s a big-city mayor, they share a common enemy, criminals.

Yes, Chris, you’re fascinating. Too bad you’re also telling only half the story…the less relevant half. Go to the second part of that poll and you find this summary:

Although Rudy Giuliani is the front-runner for the GOP nomination, Republican gun owners are less likely than non-owners to support him.

In this poll, while Rudy enjoys 32% overall support among Republican primary voters, only 26% of Republican gun-owners support him. In fact he’s the only candidate running for the Republican nomination whose support among gun-owners is lower than his overall support. By contrast, Fred Thompson’s 12% support for the nomination is largely driven by his 18% support among gun-owners.

In other words, Chris Matthews’s little pet theory is blown out of the water by the very polling that he claimed supports it. How can this be? Well, the first poll that Chris cited was a general election favorability survey of gun-owners (R & D) while the second poll (which he conveniently didn’t cite) is a primary election poll of Republicans (from the same pool of 2,000 Americans, 670 of whom are gun-owners.)

If Matthews really wanted to test Rudy’s SUPPORT among gun-owners, he would have looked at the second poll. But that would have meant admitting his little theory had a hole in it and perhaps even worse, it would have meant that conventional wisdom, which Matthews despises, that Rudy’s status as a big-city gun-control supporting mayor IS a problem for him in the primary, is absolutely correct.

Rudy Giuliani | No Comments »

Continuing the feud that erupted at the last Republican debate, Ron Paul held a press conference today during which he ripped Rudy Giuliani’s presidential readiness and even assigned him some summer reading to get him up to speed. Said Paul:

“I don’t think he’s qualified to be president mainly because of his views and no, [I wouldn't support him] unless he would read the books and report back to me and say, you know, you’ve changed my mind — then I would reconsider.”

The books on the list:

“Imperial Hubris” by Michael Scheuer

“Dying to Win” by Robert Pape

“Blowback” by Chalmers Johnson

the 9/11 Commission Report

Giuliani’s response was typical neo-con head in the sand nationalism (via his spokeswoman):

“Mayor Giuliani said it best — it is extraordinary and reckless to claim that the United States invited the attacks on September 11th,” Comella said. “And to further declare Rudy Giuliani needs to be educated on September 11th when millions of people around the world saw him dealing with these terrorist attacks firsthand is just as absurd.”

So, tell me again how conservatives can simultaneously claim that September 11 IS NOT America’s fault yet IS Bill Clinton’s fault?

Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani | 7 Comments »