Josh Marshall wonders if Romney might have regained a touch of momentum just before the polls open. Either way, he suggests that, when you consider the bigger picture, it would be more than premature to suppose that a victory in New Hampshire would vault John McCain to the nomination:

The next big fight is in South Carolina. And two new polls out today (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA) show Huckabee in a dominant position in the state. So Huckabee looks likely to take Secessionville with either McCain or Romney coming in second.

At that point you’ll have to say that Huckabee, who the GOP establishment is roundly against, is the frontrunner in the campaign. And the others are going to coalesce around an anti-Huckabee candidate. It’s not clear to me that McCain is a shoe-in for that role.

McCain is, for the most part, just another right-wing Republican. But his tentative heresies on issues like campaign finance, global warming, and immigration are still a problem in his relationship with the GOP establishment. That establishment, while hardly united behind any single candidate, has generally expressed a good deal more interest in candidates like Romney, Giuliani, and even Fred Thompson. There may be voter movement behind McCain right now - but the whole point of being an establishment is that you don’t want the voters to ruin everything by deciding these things for themselves.

It may or may not be in the GOP establishment’s power to make the decision, at this late date, as to who will be the anti-Huckabee. But they’ll try, and there’s no particular reason to believe that they’ll try to make it McCain.

South Carolina, Fred Thompson, Michael Bloomberg, New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | No Comments »

The Hotline took a tongue-and-cheek look at non-candidate Mike Bloomberg’s very presidential MySpace and Facebook accounts.

Michael Bloomberg | No Comments »

Political Wire:

In New York City, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Mayor Michael Bloomberg with a near record 73% approval rating.

Key finding: By a 46% to 16% margin, New Yorkers say that Bloomberg is a better mayor than his predecessor, Rudy Giuliani, with 34% who say both are the same. And by 46% to 31%, they feel Bloomberg would make a better president.

Ouch.

Michael Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani | 15 Comments »

There are clearly many obstacles for Rudy Giuliani to overcome in his pursuit of the Republican nomination - his moderate stances on reproductive rights, gay rights, and gun ownership, his marital history, etc. But could his identification as a New Yorker be one of them? Adam Nagourney thinks there’s something inherently unpalatable about the New York stereotype that will prevent voters from embracing Giuliani.

But the city, with all its tumult and rough edges, is not for everyone. And few people embody all the complicated facets of New York City as much as Mr. Giuliani.

He is swaggering, brash and opinionated and loves to stick his thumb in the eye of conventional political norms. Those traits won him some acclaim in New York, not to mention a lot of tabloid headlines. But he can also be temperamental, controlling, capricious, volatile and, in the words of Edward I. Koch, a former Democratic mayor who supported Mr. Giuliani in his successful bid for a second term, “mean-spirited.”

Except we didn’t see this with David Dinkins, nor have we seen it thus far with Mike Bloomberg, who is now considering an independent run for president. No one has suggested that Bloomberg will face temperament obstacles, as Giuliani faces.

The Giuliani tenure at City Hall was, until the attacks of Sept. 11, a blur of a combative mayor fighting with political opponents, civil rights leaders, voters and reporters. (There is tape; voters will hear and see it.) Those who disagreed with him could encounter the kind of scorn one might expect from an irascible New York cabbie. “There is something deranged about you,” Mr. Giuliani said in a three-minute lecture to a New Yorker who called in to his weekly radio show to complain about the city’s ban on ferrets as pets.

Some New Yorkers may have winced at the images of Mr. Giuliani shouting a barnyard epithet at a union rally — or furiously shouting “quiet!” to booing supporters at a rally where he was conceding defeat to David N. Dinkins — but most just accepted it as part of what puts the “New York” in the “the mayor of New York.”

The real problem is that Giuliani himself is “mean-spirited” and Nagourney rightly notes that people will see a lot of evidence of this during the course of the campaign. The fact that there are huge archives of footage and audio of Giuliani being a prick that people won’t like isn’t evidence of anything greater than the fact that Giuliani was a “mean-spirited” politician.

Don’t let Giuliani hide behind New York and stereotypes of New Yorkers for his character flaws. The men who proceeded and followed him as New York’s mayor have displayed none of these hyper-negative characteristics. You’d think that if Nagourney was going to paint a picture of the political persona of New York’s mayors, he’d make it be an image that fit at least the last three mayors universally and not Mr. Giuliani exclusively. Instead Nagourney’s piece provides cover for Giuliani’s negative character traits by unfairly extending them to the entire city.

Technorati Tags: Adam Nagourney, Mike Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani

Michael Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani | 10 Comments »

Political Wire:

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and political adviser Kevin Sheekey “are meeting with pollsters and consultants to assess the mayor’s chances as a third-party, independent candidate,” Newsweek reports.

Said Sheekey: “There is no Bloomberg campaign. But we have certainly reached out.”

Whether he runs “depends on who the nominees are for the two major parties, and how much cash Bloomberg is willing to spend.”

Michael Bloomberg | 2 Comments »

During the course of the year, there was talk of a possible presidential run by New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg as a third-party candidate.

This summer, The New Republic noted his “coy” denials of a candidacy in ‘08, and as Daniel Owen from Oval Office 2008 notes, Bloomberg “does enjoy keeping the rumors alive.”

WCBS-TV in New York reported that Bloomberg dressed up as Bruce Springsteen and gave an adapted rendition of ‘Born to Run’ at a party for City Hall workers early in December. Included in the lyrics: “I say ‘Next stop: Washington!’ Cause folks like us, baby we were born to run. We’ll win, you’ll see, and beat the G.O.P. and Democrats.” Stirring stuff. [emphasis added]

Currently, there are three New Yorkers contemplating candidacies for the presidency. Two, of which, are Republicans.
Bloomberg’s predecessor, former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani, is neck-and-neck with Arizona Senator John McCain in early polling. Outgoing New York Governor George Pataki is reportedly contemplating a run for office.

Democrat Senator Hillary Clinton recently won re-election to a second term and is ahead in national polls. (Early primary state polls show her much closer to the competition.)

Michael Bloomberg | 1 Comment »