Everybody’s trying to read tea leaves, wondering if there would be an evangelical third-party run if the nominally pro-choice Rudy Giuliani were to take the Republican nomination. The latest signals are conflicting. Sam Brownback, whose support is so wide and deep that he just dropped out of the race in the middle of October, proclaimed himself much more confortable with Giuliani’s views on abortion and particularly the appointing of “strict constructionist judges,” which is code. The backlash from various sources suggests that Brownback’s view is kind of unpopular, which is obvious, considering he’s no longer in the race.

“There’s obviously something more going on here than fidelity to the pro-life cause,” said (Jim) Bopp, a legendary pro-life activist and lawyer who is an important voice for Romney because he vouches for his conservatism. “Brownback is angling for some personal political benefit by cozying up to Giuliani.”

[…]

“I’ll believe he supports Giuliani when I see it,” FRC veep (Charmaine) Yoest says. “For the pro-life movement as a whole, life is a deal-breaker. There would be no better way to demoralize the GOP base than to nominate Giuliani. It would be a disaster for the Republicans party.”

Whether this is all talk, or presumptive of action, is the $64,000 question. I think at this point, it’s clear that there would be a third-party effort against Giuliani. The real question is whether or not it will be sanctioned by the larger groups of social conservatives, or whether it will be just from the fringe. The latter is manageable; the Constitution Party runs a wacko candidate every year who gets a handful of meaningless votes. The former would really close Republican hopes in 2008. I don’t think anyone can be confident about which way things will go.

Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback | 3 Comments »

Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, the failed presidential candidate, plans to meet with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

In an interview with The Hill on Wednesday, Brownback said he would consider endorsing Giuliani because he believed the former New York Mayor had changed his position on partial-birth abortion and has pledged to appoint to the courts strict constructionists to the Supreme Court.

“I’m going to meet with him and I’m going to talk to him and hear what he is specifically saying now because he’s changed on a number of the abortion issues,” Brownback told The Hill.

According to the interview, Brownback has asked for the meeting because he had heard indirectly that Giuliani is opposed to allowing women the right to late-term abortions. The Senator hopes to confirm those positions when they meet and hear directly where Giuliani currently stands on these issues.

According to Jan Simmonds, Brownback has reportedly met with Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) since dropping his presidential bid last week.

Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback | 3 Comments »

Reports from the Washington Hilton are coming in, and don’t you wish you were there….

Tom Tancredo appears to have mental health issues:

But the audience’s enthusiasm seemed to slip slightly when Tancredo got to the climax of his speech. He discussed the threat from jihadism abroad and multi-culturalism at home as being equal and invited the audience to join him in a battle for Western civilization. “Charge into the breach with me!” he yelled. “This is our culture! Fight for it! This is our flag! Pick it up!” When he gets to that point – I’ve seen him do this before — he sends out a vibe that some people in the audience appear to be uncomfortable with.

Within a couple of years I expect we’ll be seeing Tancredo wandering unkempt through the New York subway, shouting incoherently and scaring the tourists.

Mitt Romney may be a little behind the curve on basic foreign policy, but he picked up a key endorsement from Jack Willke, a major “pro-life” activist and former Brownback supporter. Soren Dayton reports that Romney’s Values Voter speech was fairly well-received, mainly because he was telling people what they wanted to hear, which always goes over well, and for which Multiple Choice Mitt has a special talent. Still, Romney’s people again seem to be behind in their research: according to Dayton, much of what Romney promised the Family Research Council folks was stuff that had already been accomplished. Overall, the result for Romney was as mixed as ever:

In general, people that I talked to after the speech felt like he had said everything that he was supposed to say. He had performed very, very well. But it wasn’t enough for them. They wanted more. And they felt like he was performing. And it was clear that there was some substantial anti-Mormon bias in the room.

NBC’s Matthew Berger previews the speech Rudy Giuliani will give today. In a surprise move, “he will likely tout his leadership on 9/11 and how he cleaned up New York City.”

Finally, Townhall reports that the Thompson campaign will be live-blogging Sunday night’s debate in Spanish. I give them credit: this is a pretty good idea. Unfortunately for Thompson, conservative reaction to the move is probably pretty well summed up in a comment by one “Jack Shiite”:

Well…It was nice knowing you, Fred. Hey, at least you half tried…

Hasta la vista, Freddy.

Fred Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Mitt Romney | 2 Comments »

The Family Research Council’s big “Values Voter Summit” kicks off in Washington today, where thousands of Christian right leaders and activists from around the country will be gathering to try and figure out just what the hell they’re supposed to do with the GOP next year. Where the presidential race is concerned, it looks like the major preoccupation this weekend will be determining how to use the Christian right’s influence within the Republican primary process, as opposed to plotting a breakaway effort for the general election.

The Washington Post reports that, for many, the purpose of the meeting is straightforward: stop Rudy Giuliani. The former mayor’s supposedly pro-choice views are bad enough, but according to the Post, Giuliani’s outreach efforts have failed to impress fundamentalists:

[A]s he attempts to build bridges to Christian leaders nationally, local conservative activists say they see little evidence of those efforts at the ground level. […]

“He has done everything to . . . put his finger in our eyes and tell us this constituency does not matter,” said Steve Scheffler, head of the Iowa Christian Alliance.

Scheffler said he refused to invite the former mayor to an event his group held last month after a series of snubs that included Giuliani’s absence from a forum in June, his refusal to appear at house parties the group holds and the campaign’s refusal to fill out a questionnaire.

The article quotes Southern Baptist Convention President James Page describing the Christian right’s “angst,” while James Dobson is said to be “almost despondent” about the nomination process so far. Much of this despair, again, probably has less to do with any dearth of candidates willing to pander to the fundies than with the fact that Giuliani continues to ride high in the polls — even among evangelicals — despite the entrenched evangelical leadership’s efforts to turn their flock against him.

Still, it’s far more efficient to back a horse in the primary than to go the third-party route, and my guess is that the bulk of the Christian right leadership will make every effort to find a way to work within the GOP this cycle. With Sam Brownback’s exit and Mike Huckabee’s surging Iowa poll numbers, things could be getting clearer. What Huckabee lacks is the ability to raise money. It’s possible that he could go a long way toward solving that problem if he could gain the unambiguous support of the leaders of the Christian right. It wouldn’t catapult him past Giuliani or Romney in the fundraising stakes, but it could make him competitive. Safe to say that this is a very important weekend for Mike Huckabee: if he fails to emerge from the Values Voter confab with at least some kind of show of support from the attendees, it’s hard to see how he’ll be able to build a strong enough national organization to benefit even from a decent showing in Iowa.

For Romney, McCain, and Thompson, this weekend is one more chance to pander to a crowd that really wants to be told it’s beautiful. The trouble is that, while Romney might know the right words to say, he’s still suspiciously Mormon, while McCain is not trusted, and Thompson, so far, is just an all-around flop.

I continue to believe that the great majority of the Christian right movement will try pretty hard to avoid a break with the GOP. This weekend’s events will go a long way toward determining how successful that effort will be.

Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Mitt Romney | No Comments »

I completely forgot about this bit of Sam Brownback trivia. Remember that he had an elaborate painting of himself in his own office? With fallen angels on it?

Yep, that is a huge painting of Brownback superimposed over an American flag and the Capitol. Man, that is humility. And check out a close up of the bottom of the painting:

Yes indeed, those are angels with black wings, or fallen angels:

A fallen angel in Abrahamic traditions is an angel that has been exiled or banished from Heaven. Often such banishment is a punishment for disobeying or rebelling against God.

The best-known fallen angel is Satan. According to some traditions, fallen angels will roam the Earth until Judgment Day, when they will be banished to Hell.

The angels are looking up toward Brownback. I guess this is because they want redemption and Brownback is God.

Every time Sam Brownback drops out of a Presidential race, an angel loses his wings.

Sam Brownback | 1 Comment »

Sam Brownback will not be the President of the United States.

Republican Sam Brownback will drop out of the 2008 presidential campaign on Friday, people close to the Kansas senator said Thursday.

Brownback, a longshot conservative contender, had trouble raising money to compete in the race. He is expected announce his withdrawal in Topeka, Kan.

He raised a little more than $800,000 in the third quarter of this year, his lowest quarterly amount since entering race. He has brought in more than $4 million overall and is eligible for $2 million in federal matching funds.

I think the rest of the field will probably stay in until Iowa, save perhaps Duncan Hunter. Tancredo and Keyes are running vanity campaigns that don’t cost much money, and everyone else has a reason to compete. Sam Brownback actually thought he could be President. He suddenly woke up to the reality that he can’t. As for who this benefits, was Brownback even polling at a measurable number? I’m not sure it benefits anyone.

Sam Brownback | 4 Comments »

Senator Sam Brownback pulled a Tommy Thompson by setting a marker based on his performance in Iowa: fourth place or he’s out.

In an online chat hosted by the Washington Post, he was asked if it was true that he would drop out if he didn’t place in the top four, and he reaffirmed it. “That is correct,” he said. “I need to finish in that group to move on forward.”

Sam Brownback | No Comments »

Mitt Romney is way out in front in Iowa, according to a recent Des Moines Register poll of 405 likely Republican caucus voters.

Mitt Romney 29%
Fred Thompson 18%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Rudy Giuliani 11%
John McCain 7%
Tom Tancredo 5%
Ron Paul 4%
Sam Brownback 2%
Alan Keyes 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Not sure/Uncommitted 9%Survey of 405 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted October 1-3. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

For the first time that I have seen, Mike Huckabee surpassed one of the top-tier candidates in polling. Rudy Giuliani  is running fourth behind Romney, Fred Thompson and Huckabee.

Duncan Hunter is polling behind perennial electoral loser, Alan Keyes, who is tied with Kansas Senator Sam Brownback.

(Hat tip: Aron Goldman, race42008.com)

Polling, Fred Thompson, Alan Keyes, Iowa, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney | 2 Comments »

World Net Daily puts a literary spin on the failure of the “Values Voter Debate”:

With “invisible” candidates who failed to show up getting grilled with questions, hundreds of empty seats, not a single mainstream television network on hand, and the name of God invoked countless times, the “unseen world” clearly dominated last night’s Republican presidential debate in South Florida.

High-profile contenders Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson all chose not to participate, though each had an empty podium with his name displayed on stage to emphasize his absence.

You might have thought all that nothingness would drive the organizers to atheism — certainly it doesn’t say much for their political clout.

The second tier was out in force, at any rate, and Mike Huckabee led the pack, winning the straw poll. Huckabee, it might seem, has nothing to lose by pandering to a religious right that has been feeling neglected lately, though if he were somehow to catapult himself to the nomination, such associations might come back to damage his image as a new and different kind of evangelical politician.

If you missed the debate, or if your streaming video link didn’t work (mine didn’t), you can find the questions here. One is by a gentleman from an organization called “Americans for Truth About Homosexuality.” Sadly, my gay friends and family members inform me that the truth about homosexuality is not nearly as exciting as you might think. But I digress. Video clips will be up at the VVD website, I presume, so you can watch the parade of moral warriors demanding, on behalf of invisible constituencies, just what the invisible candidates plan to do about the imaginary problems confronting their made-up version of America.

Florida, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, Presidential Debates, Alan Keyes, John H. Cox, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney | 4 Comments »

A few days after the latest Republican debate and the official Hollywood entry of Fred Thompson into the race, the actor/lobbyist is gaining strength in the polls. USA Today/Gallup has Thompson up 3 points since August, while Rudy Giuliani continues to lead and John McCain seems to have stopped the bleeding:

Giuliani 33%
Thompson: 22%
McCain: 15%
Romney: 10%
Huckabee: 5%
Brownback: 2%
Paul: 1%
Tancredo: 1%
Hunter: * (ouch)

I could use this as an opportunity to once again go into my Huckabee Is Not a Frontrunner routine, but you get the point. He’s still looking good for a VP slot, though.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows a much bigger bounce for Thompson, landing him at the top of the pile:

Thompson 26%
Giuliani 22%
Romney 13%
McCain 12%
Huckabee 6%

Rasmussen comments:

Thompson’s gains since announcing have come primarily among conservatives likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In polling completed since his announcement, Thompson leads Giuliani by 12-points among conservative primary voters. That’s up from a five-point edge before the announcement. Conservatives account for more than 60% of GOP primary voters. Two-thirds of Republican voters view Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.

In addition to Thompson’s announcement, Giuliani may have lost some ground by proclaiming on CNN that illegal immigration is not a crime.

This is significant, and in terms of the race for the nomination, good news for Thompson. His previous bounce had come thanks almost entirely to moderates, who had been drifting away from the hyper-partisan Giuliani. Now Hollywood Fred is getting conservatives, too. As the Glenn Beck immigration flap illustrates, Giuliani may be having an increasingly difficult time threading the needle between his conflicting images (is he a liberal or a hardliner?) – if so, Thompson stands to benefit.

Mike Huckabee, Polling, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | 3 Comments »