Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) blasted his primary opponents on torture and points to their lack of military service as why.

The Arizona senator’s position on an interrogation technique that simulates drowning — he says it constitutes torture and is illegal — puts him at odds with Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, who haven’t taken such a hard line.

“There’s a clear division between those who have a military background and experience in these issues and people like Giuliani, Romney and Thompson who don’t — who chose to do other things when this nation was fighting its wars,” McCain told reporters after touring a shipyard and taking questions from workers wearing hard hats and blue jeans.

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World Net Daily puts a literary spin on the failure of the “Values Voter Debate”:

With “invisible” candidates who failed to show up getting grilled with questions, hundreds of empty seats, not a single mainstream television network on hand, and the name of God invoked countless times, the “unseen world” clearly dominated last night’s Republican presidential debate in South Florida.

High-profile contenders Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson all chose not to participate, though each had an empty podium with his name displayed on stage to emphasize his absence.

You might have thought all that nothingness would drive the organizers to atheism — certainly it doesn’t say much for their political clout.

The second tier was out in force, at any rate, and Mike Huckabee led the pack, winning the straw poll. Huckabee, it might seem, has nothing to lose by pandering to a religious right that has been feeling neglected lately, though if he were somehow to catapult himself to the nomination, such associations might come back to damage his image as a new and different kind of evangelical politician.

If you missed the debate, or if your streaming video link didn’t work (mine didn’t), you can find the questions here. One is by a gentleman from an organization called “Americans for Truth About Homosexuality.” Sadly, my gay friends and family members inform me that the truth about homosexuality is not nearly as exciting as you might think. But I digress. Video clips will be up at the VVD website, I presume, so you can watch the parade of moral warriors demanding, on behalf of invisible constituencies, just what the invisible candidates plan to do about the imaginary problems confronting their made-up version of America.

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Relive the experience! Check out Mia Culpa for the entire debate in 5 to 11 minute clips.

So, who won? Paul Curtis notes that nobody, yet again, left as the runaway favorite. Naturally, this forced spin alley to be in full-on damage control and what we have is virtually every candidate declaring victory.

Romney’s camp, which has never heard of a permalink apparently, quotes actual support from bloggers down to mere mentions of his name without “flip-flopper” preceding it.

Giuliani did exactly the same thing as Romney and is pushing such ringing endorsements as:

CBN News’ David Brody: “Rudy Giuliani … did well tonight.”

McCain’s blog just comes right out and says it, “John McCain Wins the NH Debate,” as did the campaign’s e-mail alert and featuring this video from FOX News Channel’s coverage:

The Huckabee campaign is pimping this video of the former Governor’s spat with Congressman Ron Paul at the debate over Iraq.

The only candidate who didn’t declare victory, and was rather bitter actually, John H. Cox because he wasn’t allowed in.

Fred Thompson, Presidential Debates, Ron Paul, John H. Cox, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | No Comments »

I’ve been away for a few days, but I couldn’t let the fact go by that the surge is working. The Duncan Hunter surge, that is.

California congressman Duncan Hunter won Texas’ first Republican Party Straw Poll on Saturday in a low-turnout event that lacked the top-tier presidential candidates.

Hunter got 534 votes, or 41 percent of the vote. Former Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson, who is expected to announce his candidacy next week but was not at the event, came in second with 266 votes, or nearly 21 percent. Texas congressman Ron Paul came in third with 217 votes, or 17 percent.

534 people in Texas are buying what Dunc’s selling. You tell me this man can’t walk into the White House now.

This was actually my favorite part.

Crowd support seemed split between Hunter and Paul, whose supporters waved signs and chanted his name throughout the day. Other candidates attending were Chicago businessman John Cox, who got 10 votes; counterterrorism expert Hugh Cort of Birmingham, Ala., who got three votes; and tool-and-die maker Ray McKinney of Savannah, Ga., with 28 votes.

Ray McKinney is the Tin Cup of this race. He slayed the mighty John Cox dragon. (Seriously, 10? 10 votes?)

Texas, John H. Cox, Polling, Duncan Hunter | 3 Comments »

Today is the second anniversary of the tragic levee failure after Hurricane Katrina that led to the flooding of New Orleans and the death of thousands. Clearly, this is a layup for Presidential candidates. You pay tribute to the city and highlight your plans for reconstruction, as John Edwards and Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have done.

So what have the Republican candidates worked up for this anniversary?

Rudy Giuliani: Three-line press release, no specifics.
Mitt Romney: Nothing on the front page.
Fred Thompson: Nothing on the front page.
John McCain: Three-paragraph press release, no specifics.
Mike Huckabee: Nothing on the front page, at the top of the site is a news flash that “Gov. Mike Huckabee to Participate in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Debate on September 5, 2007.”
Sam Brownback: Nothing on the front page.
Duncan Hunter: To his credit, Hunter was the only Republican to attend the “Hope and Recovery Summit” in New Orleans on Tuesday, and he writes about it. The story accentuates the positives, but at least he offers a tribute and some specifics.
Ron Paul: Nothing on the front page.
Tom Tancredo: Nothing on the front page.
John Cox: Nothing on the front page.

It’s not a scientific study, but it does offer at least a glimpse into the priorities of the Right’s Field. The citizens of the Gulf Coast and New Orleans aren’t on the top of the list.

John H. Cox, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, On the Web, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Mitt Romney | 13 Comments »

The pace of the campaign is picking up, and here at TRF we’ll probably be updating our power rankings with greater frequency. Two days after the Iowa straw poll, it’s an ideal time to take stock. This edition of the power line generated a good deal of debate among the TRF crew — not so much about the top of the list (though there is some disagreement), but about the middle. Following his strong performance in Ames, Mike Huckabee looks to solidify his social conservative support, improve his fundraising, and benefit from the glow of earned media. He’s a skilled campaigner with momentum and a solid logic to his candidacy. So why not rank him above John McCain, who has none of those assets?

Here’s where we come to a little bit of a philosophical difference over what defines a frontrunner. McCain has some some things Huckabee does not: organization, money, name recognition, and a longstanding relationship with the media. True, we’ve reported extensively on the crisis in his campaign and the prospect that he might drop out of the race, but that’s just it: John McCain in crisis is still a far more established candidate than Mike Huckabee, even when the latter is having a good week. Their momentum arrows are pointing in opposite directions, but there’s a lot more separating a top-tier candidate from a third-tier candidate than one turn of fortune.

Last edition’s rankings are in parenthesis:

1. Rudy Giuliani (1) — There’s a long list of things that should knock him off the top of this table — but so far, nothing has. Will his Ground Zero gaffe finally do it?

2. Mitt Romney (3) — By some metrics — his leads in IA and NH, excellent organization, fairly strong fundraising, and of course Saturday’s victory in Ames — Romney could be judged the frontrunner. Yet, like his straw poll victory, it all feels a little bit hollow. Or maybe the word is “phony.”

3. Fred Thompson (2) — Thompson’s early momentum is fading, as pundits wonder whether he’s waiting too long to officially declare his candidacy, while Newt Gingrich methodically flanks him as the “none of the above” candidate. He says he’s in for real after Labor Day, but the man who once looked to be a conservative messiah is starting to come across more like a passing fad.

4. John McCain (4) — His candidacy remains in serious jeopardy, but at least the waves of “McCain deathwatch” stories have subsided. But they’ve been replaced by something of an eerie silence, which might not be much better. Will his rather tawdry flip-flop on immigration help McCain get things moving again?

5. Mike Huckabee (7) — He has always had the skills to be an effective campaigner. After beating Brownback in the straw poll, Huckabee can claim to be the social conservative candidate. If he can solve his fundraising woes and fend off his fiscal conservative enemies — two very big ifs — he might be headed into a higher tier. But on the big stage, his nutty tax ideas could hurt him.

6. Ron Paul (8) — Let’s be clear: there’s no way in hell Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination. If he does, I’ll eat my hat — and it’s not a particularly tasty-looking hat. But Chase pointed out to me in an email that Paul is creating a little movement, with deeply committed supporters and his own particular momentum. There’s something vaguely Dean-esque about it. My question is: given that this is essentially a libertarian movement, what is its future with regard to the GOP once Paul finally drops out?

7. Tom Tancredo (6) — Looney Toons Tom Tancredo finished a strong fourth in the straw poll, with almost 14% of the vote — proving again that in today’s GOP, you can go a long way just by hatin’ on the brown folks.

8. Sam Brownback (5) — Before the straw poll, Brownback could claim to be the guy who would unite the social conservatives behind him. But after losing to Huckabee — despite outspending him — Brownback can’t say that anymore. And if he can’t make that claim, there’s simply no point to his candidacy. He can try to turn things around, but suddenly it’s an uphill battle.

9. Duncan Hunter (9) — San Diego is nice. If I were Duncan Hunter, I would go back there.

10. John Cox (12) — See you in the Buzz Bin, dude.

Dropped out: James Gilmore, Tommy Thompson — I blame the media.

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TRF will examine the fallout from yesterday’s straw poll in more depth over the next few days, but following on David’s post, here are a few initial thoughts:

• Apathy wins: The candidates had more buses shipping voters to Ames this year than they had in 1999, yet there were over 8,000 fewer votes cast. In ‘99, the George W. Bush campaign had about 70 buses bringing in supporters; Bush won the straw poll with over 7,400 votes. Despite dispatching 125 buses this time, Mitt Romney only garnered 4,516 votes. The Republican frontrunner continues to be “None of the Above.”
• Romney’s hollow victory: Romney did best his nearest rival by over 13 points, technically accomplishing the campaign’s stated goal of matching Bush’s ‘99 margin of victory. But in doing so he recieved almost 3,000 fewer votes than Bush did. Bush’s disastrous presidency no doubt accounts for a lot of the apathy in Ames yesterday, but at the same time it’s clear that Mitt Romney, as the only frontrunner to contest the straw poll — and despite his heavy spending — is failing to generate any enthusiasm.
• Huckabee beats Brownback: Mike Huckabee was on Face the Nation this morning insisting that the poll’s results should serve to vault him into the “top tier” of Republican candidates. Given Huckabee’s terrible fundraising and his Club for Growth problems, it’s a little early to be getting so carried away. But there’s no doubt that Huckabee is the only Republican to come out of Ames with anything resembling a victory. In particular, despite being outspent by Sam Brownback (who hired 100 buses of his own), Huckabee beat the man who had been assiduously building an image as the favorite candidate of the social conservatives. Now the former Arkansas governor can stake a legitimate claim to that title, and begin working to make the argument that he is both socially conservative and electable. This was a clear victory for Huckabee over his most important rival; for Brownback it’s disastrous.
• Frontrunners go nowhere: The Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain camps can say that it’s impossible to lose a poll in which you’re not participating, but they might be a bit disappointed anyway — had any of them won a statistically significant number of votes, he could claim to be generating some degree of excitement. McCain, FDT and Giuliani sat out the dance, a trio of wallflowers claiming not to be interested, but probably hoping to be noticed anyway. Instead, they were ignored.
• Let the winnowing begin: We were promised winnowing. So let’s get to it! Is there any reason at all for Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, or John Cox to stay in this race?

Mike Huckabee, Iowa, John H. Cox, Fred Thompson, Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | 4 Comments »

Here are the results of the Ames Straw Poll, and I have to say, for $2 million dollars or so and against practically no competition, I’d say Mitt Romney didn’t have the kind of victory he sought.

1. Mitt Romney 4,516 31.6%
2. Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo 1,960 13.7%
5. Ron Paul 1,305 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson 1,039 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson 203 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani 183 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter 174 1.2%
10. John McCain 101 0.7%
11. John Cox 41 0.3%

Quick thoughts here. Romney paid two million dollars for 4,600 or so supporters; that’s a little pathetic. Huckabee ended up coming out of this looking the best. Tommy Thompson said he needed to be in first place to continue. I’m expecting the press conference in Madison any minute now. Frankly, Duncan Hunter couldn’t even beat guys who weren’t competing in Ames, so he might want to consider taking a hike as well.

And I think we got John Cox those 41 votes by showing his music video.

UPDATE: Oh, and there were major voting machine problems. Thank you, Diebold!

John H. Cox, Mike Huckabee, Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney | 8 Comments »

John Cox, the former Cook County GOP chairman, released a “music video” that aligns illegal immigrants to that of the 9/11 terrorists. It’s GOP fear-mongering meets cheap ’80s hair band rock.

My favorite part is where the video has several pictures of key Republicans and Democrats on the Hill and that of a storm trooper from the film Star Wars. I’m. Not. Kidding.

I’ve seen 7th grade A/V class productions better than this.

John H. Cox | 5 Comments »

Matt Ortega tells me that there just wasn’t enough action back in February to justify doing power rankings every week. Since then, things have picked up a bit, and it’s worth updating the rankings to see how the field looks. This may or may not return to being a weekly feature right now — depends on how much entertainment our Republican friends offer us.

Last time we looked, John McCain was on top of the world, while Fred Thompson was just a washed-up ex-lobbyist/actor playing that guy on Law & Order who sits behind a desk acting gruff and never actually doing anything. Now McCain is in freefall and Thompson is wandering around the country, acting gruff and pretending not to actually be doing anything. How things change.

1. Rudy Giuliani (2) — Leads the field in Q2 fundraising, is burning less cash than his major rivals, and tops polls both nationwide and in key states. And yet he’s losing ground.

2. Fred Thompson (N/A) — In striking distance of Giuliani without even “officially” campaigning — though the FEC might have something to say about what he’s been up to. We won’t know until much later whether he’ll be able to take advantage of his favorable early poll numbers; conservatives have great hopes for him, but he has stumbled a bit, and the dirt on him is starting to come out. Plus he looks ridiculous in frills.

3. Mitt Romney (3) — His skillful early organization is continuing to pay off. He’s got leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he just won a Young Republican straw poll by deftly expanding the boundaries of the meaning of the word ”young.” But his fundraising has fallen off, his burn rate has climbed, the Christian right may be turning on him, and he’s an also-ran in the national polls. Even if he does win Iowa and New Hampshire, will it be enough?

4. John McCain (1) — It’s all gone pear-shaped for the former frontrunner. Never quite trusted by the conservative base, McCain’s sponsorship of the immigration bill may prove fatal to his hopes for the nomination. His second-quarter fundraising was catastrophic; now he’s slashing his payroll, decimating his campaign organization and prompting the “McCain Death Watch.” It’s not over for him yet, but a recovery looks unlikely.

5. Sam Brownback (4) — While he’s down from his February ranking, things are actually looking up for Brownback lately. With a recent show of support from 50 Iowa Christian right leaders, he’s poised to pick up support from social conservatives disenchanted with the frontrunners.

6. Tom Tancredo (9) — His anti-immigrant message resonates with a riled-up base, and it sounds like he’s been doing well at candidates’ forums.

7. Mike Huckabee (5) — The most talented politician in the Republican field, with a message that could remake evangelicals as a political force. Yet the fiscal conservatives don’t trust him and he can’t raise money to save his life. His showing in Ames may determine his fate.

8. Ron Paul (8) — More cash on hand than John McCain. And a kick-ass van.

9. Duncan Hunter (7) — He got the Ann Coulter endorsement, which is nice for him.

10. Tommy Thompson (6) — Midwestern governor with some name recognition. Utterly generic, and soon to be irrelevant.

11. James Gilmore (10) — Not to be confused with David Gilmour.

12. John Cox (11) — You shot who in the what now?

John H. Cox, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Candidates, Fred Thompson, Power Rankings, Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, James Gilmore, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Mitt Romney | 3 Comments »