The dream is over.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will not run for president in 2008 after determining he could not legally explore a bid and remain as head of his tax-exempt political organization, a spokesman said Saturday.

“Newt is not running,” spokesman Rick Tyler said. “It is legally impermissible for him to continue on as chairman of American Solutions (for Winning the Future) and to explore a campaign for president.”

Gingrich decided “to continue on raising the challenges America faces and finding solutions to those challenges” as the group’s chairman, Tyler said, “rather than pursuing the presidency.”

Can American Solutions be that lucrative a gig that it’s not worth giving up for a run to be leader of the free world, or did the initial foray into talking to donors reveal nothing but “Ah, no thanks”? Sadly, we’ll never know.

Well, on the bright side for those Republicans looking for a saviour, I hear Ted Nugent is available.

Newt Gingrich | 2 Comments »

As the third quarter winds down and the FEC reporting deadline looms, here’s what to expect from the top candidates.

Giuliani advisers won’t provide an estimate of their expected haul — they are very good at keeping their estimates in house — but they probably will not raise as much as they did last quarter. Through June 30, Giuliani had raised nearly $35M and had $16M left to spend, a burn rate of about 45%.

Romney has loaned himself nearly $9M, which, when subtracted from his $12M cash-on-hand, would suggest that receipts in have not kept pace with disbursements, generally, which have totaled more than $32M. Romney donors said that they had been told that Romney was prepared to spend another $5M to keep his campaign’s budget intact. They give a range of $10M to $12M for individual contributions in the third quarter.

John McCain will raise between $4 and $5M; Fred Thompson will probably raise around $6M.

Quick thoughts here. One, Romney is spending untold amounts of money. He’s had to, in order to raise his name ID against well-known challengers. So he has to raise lots more than every other candidate to keep financial parity. This is not happening.

Two, nobody’s raising as much as last quarter, and still not nearly as much as the Democrats.

Three, McCain and particularly Thompson’s numbers are pathetic. Thompson just started raising money, meaning that he just started hitting up his biggest supporters for maxed-out donations. And all he could scrounge up was a measly $6M? I suppose on a two-day-a-week work schedule, that’s decent enough, but for someone who actually wants to be President…

There’s a decent amount of bad news for all of these candidates here. And considering their continued disrespect of minority voters, as well as the difficulties succeeded an historically unpopular President, the pump is primed for….

A new savior!!!!

Newt Gingrich is poised to enter the presidential contest on Monday with an interesting device: A self-made draft site.

The site will ask people to pledge money for his campaign if he were to run, and will lay out his ideas for the country.

It’s like the Night of 100 Stars, if by “stars” you mean “cranky Republicans seeing their grip on power slip away.”

Fred Thompson, Fundraising, Newt Gingrich, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney | 1 Comment »

It’s only one week until G-Day, and America’s favorite deposed right-wing House Speaker is still talking a like a candidate. The latest: his lengthy statement in today’s New York Post, which comes across a lot like something written by a guy who thinks that only he can save the world. It’s pretty boilerplate Gingrichism — right-wing hobbyhorses dressed up as something new, futuristic, and nonpartisan — but it includes specific call-outs of Republicans (for dissing Tavis Smiley) and Democrats (for dissing Fox) and bundles the whole thing together with call-to-arms-ish language.

As David has noted, a Gingrich candidacy remains a very real possibility; if anything, Fred Thompson’s failure to catch fire seems to make it more likely. I smell a new poll question.

Update: New poll posted in the left-hand column. My vote: he’s in. I’m betting on Newt’s ego.

Newt Gingrich | 4 Comments »

I’m not much of a believer in national polls, but clearly Rudy Giuliani’s stock is dropping measurably. I’m not sure if it’s tied to specific policies, although I’d like to think that, any more than it’s tied to the introduction of a fresh candidate that conservatives who are holding out for a hero can now fill with their fantasies of a “real conservative.” They’ve yet to hear the truth on Freddie, but he looks good at 30,000 feet. And that’s how national polls are conducted.

Clearly Rudy is not selling the argument that he’s the only one in the race who understands the nature of the terrorist threat; one poll shows that he has no advantage on his rivals on the terrorism front. Given that, and the fact that his views on many other topics are completely out of step with the conservative base, I don’t see how he can turn it around.

But there isn’t a flawless candidate to be found, which is why Newt Gingrich is still rumbling that he might join the race. In fact, there’s an argument to be made that the GOP convention can be brokered. Mitt Romney is still leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, albeit by smaller numbers. He’s a hardworking candidate and is trying to use the Iowa bounce to the nomination. But his numbers haven’t moved an inch in South Carolina, or indeed much of the South, where Thompson runs strong. And in delegate-rich states like California and New York, Giuliani’s support hasn’t softened. So you can envision a scenario where Romney’s bounce isn’t quite high enough, Thompson sweeps the South, and Giuliani gets a lot of delegates in large states. Plus John McCain and Mike Huckabee are still lurking back in the pack, and in the non winner-take-all states they’ll grab at least some delegates. And I stand by the opinion that Ron Paul will throw a wrench into the New Hampshire race by taking at least 10-15% of the vote.

That’s a lot of muddle. And for a party that almost always nominates whoever is at the head of the polls on Labor Day the year before, it’s quite astonishing.

Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | 7 Comments »

New poll numbers from the American Research Group reveal significant improvement in former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s standing in Iowa, bouncing to 14% support after the Iowa Republican Straw Poll earlier this month.  ARG’s polling indicated that Huckabee had the support of only 1% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers last month.

While the ARG’s likely caucus-goer screen is notoriously loose, this is undoubtedly good news for the Huckabee campaign.  The poll puts Huckabee in third place in Iowa, behind Romney at 27% and Giuliani at 17%.  Huckabee beats Fred Thompson (13%), Newt Gingrich (7%), and John McCain (5%).

Notably for Huckabee, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo receive no discernible support in the ARG poll.   Ron Paul, on the other hand, receives 1% support in Iowa.

Crossposted at Chase Martyn on Display.

Mike Huckabee, Iowa, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | 2 Comments »

Robert Novak reported today that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich suggested to former Senator Fred Thompson that he announce his candidacy using video.

Gingrich reportedly said that he will not seek the nomination if Thompson enters the race. The former speaker has said in the past that he did not wish to be one of many candidates perched for a debate. He has also said in the past that he would only run if no other candidate was running away with it.

Thompson is expected to appear at the September 27 Republican presidential debate. In June, Paul Curtis noted an Associated Press report that suggested Gingrich would file the necessary paperwork for an exploratory committee on September 30 and decide to enter the race by November 6.

It is easy to argue that no candidate in the Republican field is emerging as the clear choice of Republicans. In fact, it is quite the opposite. The GOP base is so confused and dissatisfied with their range of choices that the presumptive front runner status hat has been on three, nearly four different candidates since January.

It started with John McCain as the presumptive front-runner but his stance on immigration hurt him to the point of irrelevancy. Rudy Giuliani then assumed front-runner status until a recent barrage of damaging news about previous appointees and his phony credentials as a credible counter-terrorism nominee. This summer, Thompson flirted with a candidacy that really showed GOP dissatisfaction as he shot up in the polls. He has since waited forever to enter the race that it was a missed opportunity to capitalize on this mountain of support that Mitt Romney moved into front-runner status in recent weeks.

Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney | 4 Comments »

Cross-posted at Alien & Sedition.

MyDD’s Todd Beeton examines whether it will be possible for any Republican to run as a “change candidate” this cycle, noting that many in the beleagured party of George W. Bush have been looking to French President Nicolas Sarkozy as an example of how to do it. As Todd points out, it’s Newt Gingrich — framing expert, nutty futurist, and current “none of the above” candidate — who seems most fixated on le chemin Sarkozien:

So Sarkozy comes along and he’s brilliant and he understands that [the French] are in a crisis of their culture. And he’s in, in terms of the current politics of where we are in Washington, he is in the second term of a 12-year presidency, which has been decaying. Chirac was unpopular. So if you set up the normal political science equation, the left is going to win because after 12 years of the center right they’ve run out of energy and he manages to put together this magic formula of arguing that the greatness of France requires real change. So even though he is in Chirac’s cabinet, he is the candidate of real change and Royale is the candidate of reactionary bureaucracy.

Speaking Tuesday at the National Press Club, Gingrich elaborated on what Sarkozian strategy might mean for the GOP:

Sarkozy, he said, did two important things. First, Sarkozy established 16 Internet channels that were like YouTube and rigorously avoided trying to communicate through the French media, which Gingrich defined as hostile to conservatives.

“What (Sarkozy) said is, ‘If I can communicate with you, then the news media can watch our conversation,’ which is very different than having a conversation with the news media which (average people) watch,” Gingrich said.

“The second thing is he made a very important speech where he said we must have a clean break” from Chirac, Gingrich said. “And I would say to (Republican) candidates, there is a lot of parallel there.”

Gingrich used education as an example, asserting Republicans can win by advocating bold changes and framing failing schools as economic and national security issues. Gingrich said Democrats are too beholden to teachers’ unions to match that argument.

Gringrich also spoke about the threat of economic competition from China and India, particularly in light of lagging American education standards, the usual terrorist stuff, and the evils of “government bureacracy.”

A few problems with all this, after the break: (more…)

Newt Gingrich | 1 Comment »

The pace of the campaign is picking up, and here at TRF we’ll probably be updating our power rankings with greater frequency. Two days after the Iowa straw poll, it’s an ideal time to take stock. This edition of the power line generated a good deal of debate among the TRF crew — not so much about the top of the list (though there is some disagreement), but about the middle. Following his strong performance in Ames, Mike Huckabee looks to solidify his social conservative support, improve his fundraising, and benefit from the glow of earned media. He’s a skilled campaigner with momentum and a solid logic to his candidacy. So why not rank him above John McCain, who has none of those assets?

Here’s where we come to a little bit of a philosophical difference over what defines a frontrunner. McCain has some some things Huckabee does not: organization, money, name recognition, and a longstanding relationship with the media. True, we’ve reported extensively on the crisis in his campaign and the prospect that he might drop out of the race, but that’s just it: John McCain in crisis is still a far more established candidate than Mike Huckabee, even when the latter is having a good week. Their momentum arrows are pointing in opposite directions, but there’s a lot more separating a top-tier candidate from a third-tier candidate than one turn of fortune.

Last edition’s rankings are in parenthesis:

1. Rudy Giuliani (1) — There’s a long list of things that should knock him off the top of this table — but so far, nothing has. Will his Ground Zero gaffe finally do it?

2. Mitt Romney (3) — By some metrics — his leads in IA and NH, excellent organization, fairly strong fundraising, and of course Saturday’s victory in Ames — Romney could be judged the frontrunner. Yet, like his straw poll victory, it all feels a little bit hollow. Or maybe the word is “phony.”

3. Fred Thompson (2) — Thompson’s early momentum is fading, as pundits wonder whether he’s waiting too long to officially declare his candidacy, while Newt Gingrich methodically flanks him as the “none of the above” candidate. He says he’s in for real after Labor Day, but the man who once looked to be a conservative messiah is starting to come across more like a passing fad.

4. John McCain (4) — His candidacy remains in serious jeopardy, but at least the waves of “McCain deathwatch” stories have subsided. But they’ve been replaced by something of an eerie silence, which might not be much better. Will his rather tawdry flip-flop on immigration help McCain get things moving again?

5. Mike Huckabee (7) — He has always had the skills to be an effective campaigner. After beating Brownback in the straw poll, Huckabee can claim to be the social conservative candidate. If he can solve his fundraising woes and fend off his fiscal conservative enemies — two very big ifs — he might be headed into a higher tier. But on the big stage, his nutty tax ideas could hurt him.

6. Ron Paul (8) — Let’s be clear: there’s no way in hell Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination. If he does, I’ll eat my hat — and it’s not a particularly tasty-looking hat. But Chase pointed out to me in an email that Paul is creating a little movement, with deeply committed supporters and his own particular momentum. There’s something vaguely Dean-esque about it. My question is: given that this is essentially a libertarian movement, what is its future with regard to the GOP once Paul finally drops out?

7. Tom Tancredo (6) — Looney Toons Tom Tancredo finished a strong fourth in the straw poll, with almost 14% of the vote — proving again that in today’s GOP, you can go a long way just by hatin’ on the brown folks.

8. Sam Brownback (5) — Before the straw poll, Brownback could claim to be the guy who would unite the social conservatives behind him. But after losing to Huckabee — despite outspending him — Brownback can’t say that anymore. And if he can’t make that claim, there’s simply no point to his candidacy. He can try to turn things around, but suddenly it’s an uphill battle.

9. Duncan Hunter (9) — San Diego is nice. If I were Duncan Hunter, I would go back there.

10. John Cox (12) — See you in the Buzz Bin, dude.

Dropped out: James Gilmore, Tommy Thompson — I blame the media.

John H. Cox, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Power Rankings, Fred Thompson, Tommy Thompson, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney | 3 Comments »

We’ve been talking a lot about the Ames expectation game. But what does it mean in terms of cold, hard numbers? How will we measure whether or not Mitt Romney meets expectations on Saturday?

It’s not an exact science — and the various campaigns’ spinner will do their best to make it even less exact. But Jonathan Martin has some analysis:

But what exactly does Romney have to win by to win, or at least not lose, the expectations game? […]

One marker that Romney’s team is very conscious of, though, is what then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush achieved in 1999. He picked up 7,418 votes, besting his nearest competitor, Steve Forbes, who had 4,921 votes — a 10 percent margin of victory.

That contest drew a total of 23,685 ballots — right about what many in Romney’s camp expect on Saturday.

Martin also points out that a large margin of victory, at this point, probably won’t even give Romney much of a bounce anyway — rather it has become the baseline necessity for Romney to be able to claim he’s holding on as the favorite in Iowa.

I’m starting to agree with Newt Gingrich: this whole campaign thing just goes on way too long.

Iowa, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney | 1 Comment »

Jonathan Martin of The Politico reported yesterday that Newt Gingrich filed FEC forms for his group, American Solutions for Winning the Future. That doesn’t mean he’s running for president–he’s required to do so. But it’s interesting what those forms displayed. He raised $113,800 last month, including some big dollars from some conservative heavy hitters. He also spent $412,792 last month “on travel, lists, polling and salaries for seven staffers – including director of Internet strategy David Kralik, who helped create the Draft Newt website. … Sound a lot like a campaign?” Martin asks. Indeed.

Newt wouldn’t be able to transfer the actual organization into a campaign since it’s a 527 but he’s obviously using it as a platform to launch him into the race if he decides to enter. He’ll announce his decision after September 27, the day of his big “Solutions Day” conference, which should garner a lot of media coverage and could act as a policy announcement of sorts. He’s also big on symbolism–that day is the 13th anniversary of the unveiling of his Contract for America.

So why wouldn’t Newt run? I read one pundit somewhere suggest that Newt would jump in if Fred Thompson flames out, arguing that there is not enough room for two outsiders. I disagree. Newt thinks very highly of himself, to say the least, and he wouldn’t deprive the American people if he thought he could win. Thompson also plans to announce just after Labor Day, just a few weeks before Newt’s conference, so there won’t be enough time to judge the Thompson candidacy at that point. Perhaps Newt will delay the announcement.

In the end, I don’t think Newt will run. He’s an egomaniac and wants to be relevant again. But he doesn’t want to damage his reputation by losing the nomination, which he likely would. By stringing out his decision, he gets more media focus on himself and his issues (similar to Al Gore, though I don’t think he’s an egomaniac). The instant Newt, and for that matter Gore, announces he’s not running for president, he loses the limelight. One of Newt’s top informal advisers, interestingly enough, has signed on with Thompson, leading Mark Ambinder to predict that Newt “probably… won’t run for president this year.” I’d add “or any year.”

Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich | No Comments »