Loading ...Failed presidential candidate Tommy Thompson endorsed Rudy Giuliani. Thompson makes the first former Republican candidate to back another candidate.
Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, the only other candidate to drop out of the race, is currently mulling whether or not he wants to lose to his successor, former Governor Mark Warner, for retiring John Warner’s Senate seat.
The pace of the campaign is picking up, and here at TRF we’ll probably be updating our power rankings with greater frequency. Two days after the Iowa straw poll, it’s an ideal time to take stock. This edition of the power line generated a good deal of debate among the TRF crew — not so much about the top of the list (though there is some disagreement), but about the middle. Following his strong performance in Ames, Mike Huckabee looks to solidify his social conservative support, improve his fundraising, and benefit from the glow of earned media. He’s a skilled campaigner with momentum and a solid logic to his candidacy. So why not rank him above John McCain, who has none of those assets?
Here’s where we come to a little bit of a philosophical difference over what defines a frontrunner. McCain has some some things Huckabee does not: organization, money, name recognition, and a longstanding relationship with the media. True, we’ve reported extensively on the crisis in his campaign and the prospect that he might drop out of the race, but that’s just it: John McCain in crisis is still a far more established candidate than Mike Huckabee, even when the latter is having a good week. Their momentum arrows are pointing in opposite directions, but there’s a lot more separating a top-tier candidate from a third-tier candidate than one turn of fortune.
Last edition’s rankings are in parenthesis:
1. Rudy Giuliani (1) — There’s a long list of things that should knock him off the top of this table — but so far, nothing has. Will his Ground Zero gaffe finally do it?
2. Mitt Romney (3) — By some metrics — his leads in IA and NH, excellent organization, fairly strong fundraising, and of course Saturday’s victory in Ames — Romney could be judged the frontrunner. Yet, like his straw poll victory, it all feels a little bit hollow. Or maybe the word is “phony.”
3. Fred Thompson (2) — Thompson’s early momentum is fading, as pundits wonder whether he’s waiting too long to officially declare his candidacy, while Newt Gingrich methodically flanks him as the “none of the above” candidate. He says he’s in for real after Labor Day, but the man who once looked to be a conservative messiah is starting to come across more like a passing fad.
4. John McCain (4) — His candidacy remains in serious jeopardy, but at least the waves of “McCain deathwatch” stories have subsided. But they’ve been replaced by something of an eerie silence, which might not be much better. Will his rather tawdry flip-flop on immigration help McCain get things moving again?
5. Mike Huckabee (7) — He has always had the skills to be an effective campaigner. After beating Brownback in the straw poll, Huckabee can claim to be the social conservative candidate. If he can solve his fundraising woes and fend off his fiscal conservative enemies — two very big ifs — he might be headed into a higher tier. But on the big stage, his nutty tax ideas could hurt him.
6. Ron Paul (8) — Let’s be clear: there’s no way in hell Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination. If he does, I’ll eat my hat — and it’s not a particularly tasty-looking hat. But Chase pointed out to me in an email that Paul is creating a little movement, with deeply committed supporters and his own particular momentum. There’s something vaguely Dean-esque about it. My question is: given that this is essentially a libertarian movement, what is its future with regard to the GOP once Paul finally drops out?
7. Tom Tancredo (6) — Looney Toons Tom Tancredo finished a strong fourth in the straw poll, with almost 14% of the vote — proving again that in today’s GOP, you can go a long way just by hatin’ on the brown folks.
8. Sam Brownback (5) — Before the straw poll, Brownback could claim to be the guy who would unite the social conservatives behind him. But after losing to Huckabee — despite outspending him — Brownback can’t say that anymore. And if he can’t make that claim, there’s simply no point to his candidacy. He can try to turn things around, but suddenly it’s an uphill battle.
9. Duncan Hunter (9) — San Diego is nice. If I were Duncan Hunter, I would go back there.
10. John Cox (12) — See you in the Buzz Bin, dude.
Dropped out: James Gilmore, Tommy Thompson — I blame the media.
Via Jonathan Martin from The Politico:
Keeping his promise to withdraw from the GOP contest if he finished worse than second at the Ames Straw Poll, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson announced in a statement tonight that he was “leaving the campaign trail.”
TRF will examine the fallout from yesterday’s straw poll in more depth over the next few days, but following on David’s post, here are a few initial thoughts:
Here are the results of the Ames Straw Poll, and I have to say, for $2 million dollars or so and against practically no competition, I’d say Mitt Romney didn’t have the kind of victory he sought.
1. Mitt Romney 4,516 31.6%
2. Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo 1,960 13.7%
5. Ron Paul 1,305 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson 1,039 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson 203 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani 183 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter 174 1.2%
10. John McCain 101 0.7%
11. John Cox 41 0.3%
Quick thoughts here. Romney paid two million dollars for 4,600 or so supporters; that’s a little pathetic. Huckabee ended up coming out of this looking the best. Tommy Thompson said he needed to be in first place to continue. I’m expecting the press conference in Madison any minute now. Frankly, Duncan Hunter couldn’t even beat guys who weren’t competing in Ames, so he might want to consider taking a hike as well.
And I think we got John Cox those 41 votes by showing his music video.
UPDATE: Oh, and there were major voting machine problems. Thank you, Diebold!
The GOP’s other Thompson — Tommy — is complaining about a lack of support from Wisconsin, the state he governed for fourteen years:
Thompson raised just $473,000 from April to June, while Republican rivals Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain all raised more than $10 million.
Thompson wouldn’t say how much money he has raised in Wisconsin, but it “didn’t come anywhere near my target.”
He blamed the Wisconsin media, particularly the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
“I expected to come out of Wisconsin with the media behind me, raising the dollars so I could get through Iowa,” he told the newspaper.
Yeah, well, I expected to be a rock star at this point in my life. I blame the media for failing to make it happen. Especially those bastards at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Seriously, at least George Pataki could take a hint. Thompson looks like a perfect example of the kind of candidate for whom Ames will be — I’m truly sorry for the pun — the last straw.
Much has been said here and elsewhere about the new University of Iowa GOP poll today, and most people agree it’s bad news for most of the Republican field. Out in Iowa, we were able to catch up with David Redlawsk, the pollster himself, and find out what he really thinks the numbers mean for the Iowa Caucuses and the race in general:
“For Giuliani I don’t think the game’s over [in Iowa], though he has dropped a lot and is well behind Romney,” Redlawsk told Iowa Independent. “For McCain it is a different story — I am fairly confident he’s done in Iowa. Iowa Republicans never really liked him very much, and now they have more reason to go elsewhere. But for any Republican who isn’t Romney, it is currently an uphill road.”
[…]
Several candidates are on the bubble of survival and Saturday’s straw poll may eliminate some. Redlawsk says the most likely victim is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. “I think Huckabee is out” after the straw poll, he said. “While we see some support for (Kansas Senator Sam) Brownback and for (Colorado Congressman Tom) Tancredo among caucus goers, we get close to no mentions of Huckabee at all.”
[…]
While Texas Rep. Ron Paul runs away with most self-selected, unscientific polls, Redlawsk’s research shows Paul with 2.4 percent support. Redlawsk called Paul’s support very small and very intense. “Paul is the Republican’s Kucinich,” he said.
From Iowa Independent’s John Deeth, we get a pretty thorough preview of how this Saturday’s Straw Poll in Ames will affect the Republican campaign with interviews of Republicans on the ground, and it doesn’t look good for them:
U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback from Kansas is bringing in the band Kansas, and hoping he won’t be dust in the wind by day’s end. Congressman Duncan Hunter of California has hired an Elvis impersonator. And unlikely Led Zeppelin fan Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, will be playing bass with his own band.
“Take a political convention and mix it with a tailgate party,” said Johnson County GOP activist Todd Versteegh of Saturday’s Iowa Republican straw poll at Iowa State’s Hilton Coliseum in Ames. “If you’re a political junkie, this is a prime event.”
It may also be the last chance to see some of the Republican presidential candidates. Since its inception in 1979, the straw poll has grown from a low-key fund-raiser to the de facto first round of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.
The day will see more losers than winners. What’s officially at stake for the candidates is no more than bragging rights. But the lack of something to brag about may be fatal. Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole and Dan Quayle all dropped out after poor showings in 1999, while Pat Buchanan left the Republican Party to take over the remnants of Ross Perot’s Reform Party.
In contrast, only one candidate — Orrin Hatch — dropped out after the actual caucuses.
“After next Saturday, between three to four of the candidates are going to drop out,” said Versteegh. “If you don’t want to see somebody potentially drop out, go support them.”
Read more here.
Conservatives are distancing themselves from Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-Littleton, Colo.) after his statement that the U.S. should threaten to nuke Muslim holy sites as a deterrent.
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson: “I sincerely believe that bombing religious artifacts and religious holy sites would do nothing but unify one billion Muslims against us. It makes no sense.”
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee: “Historically, we’ve tried to avoid doing what the Nazis did, and that’s bombing every kind of possible target. We’ve had this attitude (that) we don’t do these things. There are some things that are off limits.” […]
State Department Spokesman Tom Casey: Tancredo’s comments are “reprehensible” and “absolutely crazy.”
State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack: “The remarks are simply outrageous. … [I]t’s important for people abroad, who may not necessarily pay attention to the details and just hear a headline with that in it, that the official position of the United States Government is that those remarks are just outrageous.”
For the longest time, TRF has pondered who was the most extreme when it came to their naked bigotry — Tancredo or Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine, Calif.). I have had a post draft sitting on the server for months now entitled, “Will the Real Bill Cutting Please Stand Up?” — a reference to their base support from nativists.
Rep. Duncan Hunter: “I wouldn’t follow that.”
It looks like its Tancredo by a mile.
Cross-posted at Iowa Independent
In many ways, the members of NICHE would probably just want to be left alone. But they’ve discovered that closing themselves off from the world is not likely to have the effects they might hope for.
NICHE is the Network of Iowa Christian Home Educators, which acts as a clearinghouse for all things Christian home-school-related. The members, if not the organization itself, also act as a force in monitoring and shaping state and federal legislation concerning home education and intend to influence the outcome of the Iowa caucuses through their staunch support of a socially conservative candidate. (more…)
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