Archive for the 'Power Rankings' Category

TRF Power Line: August 13, 2007

Posted by Paul Curtis on August 13th, 2007

The pace of the campaign is picking up, and here at TRF we’ll probably be updating our power rankings with greater frequency. Two days after the Iowa straw poll, it’s an ideal time to take stock. This edition of the power line generated a good deal of debate among the TRF crew — not so much about the top of the list (though there is some disagreement), but about the middle. Following his strong performance in Ames, Mike Huckabee looks to solidify his social conservative support, improve his fundraising, and benefit from the glow of earned media. He’s a skilled campaigner with momentum and a solid logic to his candidacy. So why not rank him above John McCain, who has none of those assets?

Here’s where we come to a little bit of a philosophical difference over what defines a frontrunner. McCain has some some things Huckabee does not: organization, money, name recognition, and a longstanding relationship with the media. True, we’ve reported extensively on the crisis in his campaign and the prospect that he might drop out of the race, but that’s just it: John McCain in crisis is still a far more established candidate than Mike Huckabee, even when the latter is having a good week. Their momentum arrows are pointing in opposite directions, but there’s a lot more separating a top-tier candidate from a third-tier candidate than one turn of fortune.

Last edition’s rankings are in parenthesis:

1. Rudy Giuliani (1) — There’s a long list of things that should knock him off the top of this table — but so far, nothing has. Will his Ground Zero gaffe finally do it?

2. Mitt Romney (3) — By some metrics — his leads in IA and NH, excellent organization, fairly strong fundraising, and of course Saturday’s victory in Ames — Romney could be judged the frontrunner. Yet, like his straw poll victory, it all feels a little bit hollow. Or maybe the word is “phony.”

3. Fred Thompson (2) — Thompson’s early momentum is fading, as pundits wonder whether he’s waiting too long to officially declare his candidacy, while Newt Gingrich methodically flanks him as the “none of the above” candidate. He says he’s in for real after Labor Day, but the man who once looked to be a conservative messiah is starting to come across more like a passing fad.

4. John McCain (4) — His candidacy remains in serious jeopardy, but at least the waves of “McCain deathwatch” stories have subsided. But they’ve been replaced by something of an eerie silence, which might not be much better. Will his rather tawdry flip-flop on immigration help McCain get things moving again?

5. Mike Huckabee (7) — He has always had the skills to be an effective campaigner. After beating Brownback in the straw poll, Huckabee can claim to be the social conservative candidate. If he can solve his fundraising woes and fend off his fiscal conservative enemies — two very big ifs — he might be headed into a higher tier. But on the big stage, his nutty tax ideas could hurt him.

6. Ron Paul (8) — Let’s be clear: there’s no way in hell Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination. If he does, I’ll eat my hat — and it’s not a particularly tasty-looking hat. But Chase pointed out to me in an email that Paul is creating a little movement, with deeply committed supporters and his own particular momentum. There’s something vaguely Dean-esque about it. My question is: given that this is essentially a libertarian movement, what is its future with regard to the GOP once Paul finally drops out?

7. Tom Tancredo (6) — Looney Toons Tom Tancredo finished a strong fourth in the straw poll, with almost 14% of the vote — proving again that in today’s GOP, you can go a long way just by hatin’ on the brown folks.

8. Sam Brownback (5) — Before the straw poll, Brownback could claim to be the guy who would unite the social conservatives behind him. But after losing to Huckabee — despite outspending him — Brownback can’t say that anymore. And if he can’t make that claim, there’s simply no point to his candidacy. He can try to turn things around, but suddenly it’s an uphill battle.

9. Duncan Hunter (9) — San Diego is nice. If I were Duncan Hunter, I would go back there.

10. John Cox (12) — See you in the Buzz Bin, dude.

Dropped out: James Gilmore, Tommy Thompson — I blame the media.

TRF Power Line: July 9, 2007

Posted by Paul Curtis on July 9th, 2007

Matt Ortega tells me that there just wasn’t enough action back in February to justify doing power rankings every week. Since then, things have picked up a bit, and it’s worth updating the rankings to see how the field looks. This may or may not return to being a weekly feature right now — depends on how much entertainment our Republican friends offer us.

Last time we looked, John McCain was on top of the world, while Fred Thompson was just a washed-up ex-lobbyist/actor playing that guy on Law & Order who sits behind a desk acting gruff and never actually doing anything. Now McCain is in freefall and Thompson is wandering around the country, acting gruff and pretending not to actually be doing anything. How things change.

1. Rudy Giuliani (2) — Leads the field in Q2 fundraising, is burning less cash than his major rivals, and tops polls both nationwide and in key states. And yet he’s losing ground.

2. Fred Thompson (N/A) — In striking distance of Giuliani without even “officially” campaigning — though the FEC might have something to say about what he’s been up to. We won’t know until much later whether he’ll be able to take advantage of his favorable early poll numbers; conservatives have great hopes for him, but he has stumbled a bit, and the dirt on him is starting to come out. Plus he looks ridiculous in frills.

3. Mitt Romney (3) — His skillful early organization is continuing to pay off. He’s got leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he just won a Young Republican straw poll by deftly expanding the boundaries of the meaning of the word ”young.” But his fundraising has fallen off, his burn rate has climbed, the Christian right may be turning on him, and he’s an also-ran in the national polls. Even if he does win Iowa and New Hampshire, will it be enough?

4. John McCain (1) — It’s all gone pear-shaped for the former frontrunner. Never quite trusted by the conservative base, McCain’s sponsorship of the immigration bill may prove fatal to his hopes for the nomination. His second-quarter fundraising was catastrophic; now he’s slashing his payroll, decimating his campaign organization and prompting the “McCain Death Watch.” It’s not over for him yet, but a recovery looks unlikely.

5. Sam Brownback (4) — While he’s down from his February ranking, things are actually looking up for Brownback lately. With a recent show of support from 50 Iowa Christian right leaders, he’s poised to pick up support from social conservatives disenchanted with the frontrunners.

6. Tom Tancredo (9) — His anti-immigrant message resonates with a riled-up base, and it sounds like he’s been doing well at candidates’ forums.

7. Mike Huckabee (5) — The most talented politician in the Republican field, with a message that could remake evangelicals as a political force. Yet the fiscal conservatives don’t trust him and he can’t raise money to save his life. His showing in Ames may determine his fate.

8. Ron Paul (8) — More cash on hand than John McCain. And a kick-ass van.

9. Duncan Hunter (7) — He got the Ann Coulter endorsement, which is nice for him.

10. Tommy Thompson (6) — Midwestern governor with some name recognition. Utterly generic, and soon to be irrelevant.

11. James Gilmore (10) — Not to be confused with David Gilmour.

12. John Cox (11) — You shot who in the what now?

TRF Power Line, Week 5

Posted by Matt Browner Hamlin on February 19th, 2007

Last week’s TRF Power Line ranking included a major shakeup, with Mitt Romney being moved from #3 to #5 spot. Kombiz wrote the ranking last week and that move was a reflection of his belief that Romney has no chance of winning the Republican nomination and should not be ranked ahead of people who do have a realistic, if not yet actualized, chance of winning (Brownback, Huckabee). I tend to agree with Kombiz that Romney’s chances of winning are slim. However I think his fundraising power, high visibility, and history of doing well in most polls is too much to relegate Romney to the #5 spot.

I am moving Romney back to the #3 spot, but with the disclaimer that I (and Kombiz) do not believe that he is a top-tier contender. The top-tier is occupied by McCain and Giuliani - no one else comes close, though if Gingrich were to enter the race I would place him in the top-tier.

1. John McCain (1) — His website is likely to give graphic designers or anyone who isn’t color blind fits for months to come, but it’s functionality is being praised by big voices on the Right. We’ll see if McCainSpace gets more members than the John McCain for President - One Million for McCain Facebook Group (currently stuck at 1,461 members). One thing for McCain to worry about: skipping Saturday’s Iraq war vote to campaign. Sorry, but shirking responsibility to manage national security matters isn’t an endearing quality for a candidate trying to run on gravitas and maturity.

2. Rudy Giuliani (2) — There’s growing reason to think that Giuliani might actually be the Republican front runner now. I don’t see it yet, especially with his precipitous drop in popularity, inability to win in New York, and the revelations about his diva attitude. A lot of Giuliani’s downsides are parallel to the downsides that McCain and Romney have, but that says more about the paucity of Republican credentials among the CW top-tier than any comparative strengths Giuliani has.

3. Mitt Romney (5) — Back in the three-hole, but no longer top-tier. Like Kombiz, I don’t see Romney getting this nomination. The Republican base is wise on his ideological history, though some will still pretend that Multiple Choice Mitt has finally settled on the Right political philosophies and will never, ever sin again. But since so many Americans aren’t comfortable with Romney’s Mormon conceptions of sin, even that might not be a metric sufficient for judging the strength of his candidacy.

4. Sam Brownback (3) — Is anyone going to start questioning Brownback on the number of votes he’s missing in the Senate?

5. Mike Huckabee (4) — I’m most interested in watching how Huckabee’s anti-poverty talk resonates with the religious Right. Brownback is talking about helping people in his speeches as well and between the two of them, there’s potential for the conservative Christian base to be brought out to vote for something other than social wedge issues that are rarely the subject of legislation.

6. Tommy Thompson (6) — Thompson’s going to be in Iowa today, which is pretty much all I have to say about his candidacy right now.

7. Duncan Hunter (7) — He’s got to do better if Hunter/Tancredo 08 has any chance of materializing. As of now I don’t see either Hunter or Tancredo succeeding in making the wishes of the Bill Cutting wing of the Republican Party front and central for a campaign wide debate. Neither of these men have any chance of rising in these rankings if the debate does not start to become primarily about immigration.

8. Ron Paul (8) — Paul’s strong anti-war speech this week will surely helped him raise his profile online, though he’s pretty much the only Republican candidate having success with online organizing right now. If Chuck Hagel does not run, Paul could make a play for the anti-war voters in the Republican primary, a move that could assure him margin-of-error finishes in every state.

9. Tom Tancredo (9) — Americans are not sufficiently scared of Mexicans to raise Tancredo’s ranking.

10. James Gilmore (11) — Viva la website! Let the movement begin: Jim Gilmore has a website. In all seriousness, at least Gilmore can put out information about himself. He could be a legitimate candidate - a poor man’s Tommy Thompson or a really poor man’s Newt Gingrich; I say that primarily in regards to biographical qualifications and not ideological positioning, though all three would appeal to more traditional visions of the Republican Party.

11. John Cox (10) — I’m told Cox has robust early primary operations, but I don’t really get this candidacy. There are lots of talented, smart people who aren’t political careerists. Maybe John Cox is one of them. Maybe his non-political qualifications make him a good choice for the Republican presidential nomination. But I don’t get what Cox thinks he can accomplish by running; he surely must have a goal beyond the nomination, because he’s not getting the nomination. Has anyone seen Cox mentioned on any of the cable news networks?

As always, this ranking includes only candidates who have formally announced their candidacy or formed presidential exploratory committees.

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TRF Power Line, Week 4

Posted by Kombiz Lavasany on February 14th, 2007

There’s a little bit more shakeup in this weeks schedule, and I hope my fellow writers at the Right’s Field agree with the way I have the field ranked.

1. John McCain (1) — It’s hard to unseat a front runner and as long as McCain smells the roses and presses flesh with enough right-wingers whom he dissociated himself with eight years ago he’ll have the nomination. Smell the roses Senator because the more the right pays attention to Giuliani and Romney the higher your stock soars.

2. Rudy Giuliani (2) — Rudy may be a social liberal, for immigration amnesty and have a “weird personal” life but as long as he’s gung ho about going after Brown people he’ll have the neo-cons and their noise machine. There’s enough conservative dis-satisafaction with McCain that he could sneak in and become McCain’s vice-presidential nominee.

3. Sam Brownback (4) — No longer second tier. If pro-lifer’s and movement conservatives are going to sit out the race then Brownback is finished. But he’s got enough corporate interests and social conservative support that he could easily win Iowa and South Carolina. If he can win both or surprise the media he’ll have enough media attention and money to compete on Feb. 5th.

4. Mike Huckabee (5) — Huckabee is great on TV and his message is compelling in the same sense that images of your first love as the sun sets over the ocean are an attractive memory. That’d be an insult if we hadn’t just re-elected some guy who we supposedly wanted to have beer with. The more you dig past the facade the more you realize that Huckabee has problems and the Club for Growth is going to make Mitt’s opponents in Massachusetts look like a bunch of second rate bloggers. The first rule of conservatism is that you can’t raise taxes and run for another election as a Republican. Just ask Bill Owens the former Republican front runner for president.

5. Mitt Romney (3) — Sorry team Mitt, I just don’t see how you win the nomination. You’re hip to facebook and I’d like a pro-choice, pro-gay rights Mormon president but it’s not what Republican voters have in mind. Your conversion story to social conservatism wasn’t compelling but no one thought they’d attack you this hard without also going after McCain and Giuliani. But they did and here we are. Your team should have released a video of McCain from 2000 for every day you came under attack, but it didn’t happen. That and the fact that 50% of Republican voters won’t vote for a Mormon president makes you wonder if you’d just been better off being a North-Eastern liberal Republican King maker. There’s a market for Republicans to urge their party to more to the left in order to be a national party and you could have owned it.

6. Tommy Thompson (6) — Is he in tier 2 or tier 3?

7. Duncan Hunter (7) — 7th place if he doesn’t get indicted.

8. Ron Paul (8) — Could win the primary if he runs as a libertarian again.

9. Tom Tancredo (9) — I’d move Tancredo up in the rankings but what’s 7th place when you’re talking about the bottom of the pack.

10. John Cox (10) — I think I visited his website.

11. James Gilmore (11) — Does he have a website?

TRF Power Line, Week 3

Posted by Matt Ortega on February 4th, 2007

Let’s see how the candidates fare heading into the first full week in February. The fact that the GOP grassroots is not fired up by any one candidate makes these power rankings extremely fragile. One slip-up by any of the front-runner candidates could be disaster. If that were the case, it could create a hole for one of the second-tier candidates to surge up a level.

Listed below are the Power Line rankings for our third week in this endeavor with last week’s rating in parenthesis.

1. John McCain (1) — McCain holds the top spot but his stock is falling while Rudy’s is on the rise. Republicans have long referred to McCain as the media’s candidate, but with his stubborn support of increasing U.S. forces in Iraq and growing focus on his flip-flops over the last several years, he has fallen from the pedestal and replaced with Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel as the “new maverick” or the “McCain of 2008.” (Though some are not willing to give up on “McCain the Maverick” just yet.) The McCain camp, however, publicly says they do not wish to engage in primary “knife fights,” the hiring of key staff that specialize in such things says otherwise. South Carolina, however, is McCain’s to lose at this point.

2. Rudy Giuliani (2) — This may be a stretch for some but with Rudy recently telling the Associated Press that there is a “good chance” he will run for president in 2008 and stumps in key GOP states piling up on his agenda, Rudy may be answering those “Is he serious?” questions. He is on the up but I do not expect him to last long up. But with the media pulling away from Arizona Senator John McCain (more on that below), Giuliani is the immediate benefactor.

3. Mitt Romney (3) — His standing in polls show him on the upswing but the former Governor has a long way to go to catch up with Giuliani and McCain.

4. Sam Brownback (4) — Of the second-tier candidates, he’s the man to beat. Should one of the front-runners make a gaffe that irks conservatives, he who holds this position will benefit the most. The top-tier candidates are all viewed by some as moderates (McCain), flip-floppers (Romney and, growingly, McCain) or just plain liberal (Giuliani). A slip-up could turn supporters to look further to the right for their choice.

5. Mike Huckabee (5) — The Huckster could challenge Brownback’s base of supporters — Christian conservatives — but there seems to be a growing sense that Huck’s love for gifts and cash could catch up with him.

6. Tommy Thompson (6) — Thompson occasionally picks up notable backers from early primary states. The same cannot be said for any of those listed below. In my opinion, grassroots support and fundraising are the only things keeping him afloat. No candidate listed below has that combination.

7. Duncan Hunter (7) — Funny. Running as the “most conservative candidate,” so far, has not paid off.

8. Ron Paul (9) — According to the Technorati blog buzz charts, Paul pulls blogger attention comparable to Giuliani, however, that is likely mostly Libertarians. It kind of makes you wonder — which party’s nomination is he seeking?

9. Tom Tancredo (8) — Hunter made a pledge to build a border fence within six months of his presidency — effectively challenging Tancredo, and undermining the only real support base he has, on his home turf — immigration. He does not have the kind of online support of Paul but notoriety not seen by the Cox or Gilmore camps.

10. John Cox (10) — At least he has a website and the inner-workings of a national campaign. However, without ever being elected to public office and no money, he’s a razor’s edge away from being an “other candidate.” The true test of this will be if he is invited to participate in the upcoming GOP primary debates. If not, he could, feasibly, fall off this list altogether. I am not banking on a Cox appearance at the debates.

11. James Gilmore (11) — The Gilmore ‘campaign’ appears to be operating on radio silence. I haven’t heard more than one peep about his candidacy since he announced. Makes me feel like all that time I spent putting together his candidate bio will be all for nothing.

TRF Power Line, Week 2

Posted by Matt Browner Hamlin on January 29th, 2007

Welcome to Week Two of The Right’s Field’s Power Line rankings of the Republican field. New to the poll this week is Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who finally formed a Presidential Exploratory Committee. FYI - last week’s rankings are in parentheses

1. John McCain (1) - McCain had a rough week. He was trashed in a poll of right wing bloggers and the media is picking up the “McCain has a problem with his temper” meme. On top of this, his unflinching support of escalation of the Iraq war distances him even further from mainstream America and, increasingly, the Republican base. Then again, we don’t call him “Presumptive Nominee John McCain” for nothing and it will take more than one bad week to move McCain out of the top slot.

2. Rudy Giuliani (2) - Giuliani had a great week. He did well in the blogger poll and got good press for his visit to New Hampshire, as well as his slow rolling of his campaign launch.

3. Mitt Romney (3) - A bit of a bland week for Romney. He did well in the blogger poll too, but to paraphrase Erick Erickson, certainly does suck.

4. Sam Brownback (5) - Brownback’s biggest problem is name recognition. I’m getting the impression that he’s one of the most ideologically acceptable candidates for the Republican base, particularly the informed Republican base.

5. Mike Huckabee (NR) - Huckabee’s entrance puts him right in the middle of the second tier of candidates. He, like Brownback, can appeal to religious voters and will make a strong play as a movement candidate. His resume makes him the conservative’s choice if they want a governor as their candidate. He has a long way to go, as his Hope for America PAC’s fundraising numbers are pretty miserable. I’ll be curious to see if Huckabee can actually raise money as a candidate - if he can’t, this will probably be the high water mark for his campaign in this ranking.

6. Tommy Thompson (4) - Last week I said Thompson could be a sleeper candidate. Well, it looks like he’s not sleeping as much - we found out via the National Journal this week that Thompson has ” begun to schedule some fundraisers and another Iowa trip.” Maybe we’ll actually start hearing some news out of the Thompson campaign. For what it’s worth, Thompson’s high placing in last weeks poll was based primarily on two factors: the Saturday announcement of Brownback’s candidacy not really impacting the news cycle and the absence of candidacies from Huckabee, Hagel, and Gingrich.

7. Duncan Hunter (8) - Hunter is no longer just an anti-immigration candidate. He’s now an anti-immigration, anti-abortion candidate! Hunter pledged to reverse Roe v Wade at the March for Life on Monday. Of course, beyond that, Hunter’s week was lousy. He announced for president and no one noticed. His victory in the Maricopa County (AZ) straw poll was rebutted by two real polls. And he makes Sam Brownback look electable.

8. Tom Tancredo (7) - About an equal number of Republican bloggers love and hate Tancredo, which is about the most I can say about someone who, despite another seven days in Congress, remains batshit crazy.

9. Ron Paul (9) - Ron Paul is a libertarian. I don’t have a problem with libertarians, but I think the Republican base will. Paul’s active on MySpace and Facebook, something John McCain’s supporters might be jealous of, but I don’t think anyone is going to get too worried about Paul’s move to corner the social networking vote.

10. John H. Cox (10) - John H. Cox has a posse.

11. James Gilmore (7) - I realized that Jim Gilmore hasn’t done a damned thing since he announced for president. At least Cox and Paul have some support online, though Paul, like Gilmore, has no website.

Newt Gingrich, George Pataki, and Chuck Hagel were not included in this ranking because they have neither announced their candidacy nor formed presidential exploratory committees.

TRF Power Line

Posted by Matt Browner Hamlin on January 22nd, 2007

I’m happy to introduce a new feature at The Right’s Field. We will be publishing regular power rankings of the Republican presidential field; our rankings will be called The Right’s Field’s Power Line (clap clap clap). TRF Power Line will only rank candidates who have announced their official candidacy or have formed presidential exploratory committees. No fantasy candidates will be included. Also, no candidates who we have ranked in the “Other Candidates” category will be included in the ranking because even if they have formally announced, they are fantasy candidates of another order all together. There will be some explanation for rankings, though this edition, since it is the first, will not be very full.

TRF Power Line is not scientific. It is not based on an aggregate of polls, though polling numbers are considered. Rather, it is a general sense of how the field is shaping up based on polls, media coverage, candidate competence, endorsements, and message resonance. The authors of this site may individually disagree with the specifics of the rankings, but they have been and will continue to be created out of a conversation we have with each other and with our commenters. That said, this is our ranking and if you have a problem with it, tell us why we’re wrong or go write your own (FYI - Oval Office 2008, Race 4 2008, and Daily Kos all have rankings of Republican candidates).

Without further ado, here is the inaugural TRF Power Line rankings of the Republican field.

1. John McCain - McCain is the Establishment Candidate and the presumptive Republican nominee. He’s got the money, organization and mainstream media adoration needed to walk away with this nomination. Of course, he’s not terribly popular with the Republican base - particularly the religious right and anti-immigrant wings. He’s going to own the escalation of the war in Iraq and he will be running as more Bush than Bush, so if Republican primary voters decide that’s not what they want in a candidate he will be in trouble.

2. Rudy Giuliani - Giuliani has phenomenal name recognition and has been doing well in the polls, often polling ahead of McCain. He’s thought of as America’s Mayor for his performance following 9/11. That said, Giuliani is socially moderate and far to the left of most Republican voters on social issues. He did an abysmal job as mayor of New York before 9/11 and his poor performance will be surely talked about by his opponents over time. My guess is that more Republican voters get to know Giuliani, the less they will like him.

3. Mitt Romney - Romney’s biggest opponent is himself, circa twelve years ago. You thought Kerry was a flip-flopper? Well, America, prepare to be introduced the politician from Massachusetts who owns the term. Like Giuliani, the more Republican voters learn about Romney’s past political beliefs, the less he will be viewed as an acceptable candidate.

4. Tommy Thompson - Entering the territory of candidate who are announced, but are really just third tier candidates now we find Tommy Thompson. Thompson’s resume will make him a popular candidate and he’s pushing a very grassroots effort that could fuel a sleeper campaign.

5. Sam Brownback - Brownback is going to be the guy to beat for the support of the religious right. He’s also making good in-roads with business leaders in Iowa, so I don’t think his will be a one-dimensional campaign. Brownback’s my pick to be the dark horse candidate. He is currently suffering from low name recognition, but stands in the right place on most issues Republicans care about (the notable exceptions being his stance on immigration and Iraq, though he’s casting his campaign on principle and faith so he can probably explain these positions away to primary voters).

6. Tom Tancredo - Tancredo may be a single-issue candidate, but immigration is a huge one. Kombiz and others have predicted Tancredo will gain enough support running an anti-immigration platform to become a threat in the field.

7. James Gilmore - Gilmore is similar to Thompson in that he has national connections to major Republican donors, a good resume of both executive leadership and GOP experience, and very old-line Republican issue positioning. Give him time and he could be a real force in this race.

8. Duncan Hunter - Hunter is the other guy running on immigration. He’s not quite as big a fire breather as Tancredo, so I doubt he will be able to push his campaign as far on the anti-immigrant schtick.

9. Ron Paul - Paul ran for president on the Libertarian ticket in 1988. That, near zero name recognition and no issue constituency make him a borderline farcical candidate.

10. John H. Cox - Despite having lost every race he’s ever entered (Congress, Senate, Cook County Recorder of Deeds), Cox has really high hopes for himself this time around. He’s going to self-finance much of his campaign (having already put in a quarter of a million dollars) - but he has to find a base in the early primary states that can buy into his outsider rhetoric or else he’ll be gone soon.

Newt Gingrich, George Pataki, Chuck Hagel, and Mike Huckabee were not included in this ranking because they have neither announced their candidacy nor formed presidential exploratory committees.

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