All of the Democratic candidates have had something to say about the wildfires raging through Southern California. Gov. Richardson, Sen. Dodd, and Sen. Edwards in particular have offered both statements and resources for those suffering in my state this week.

How are the Republicans handling this, you ask? In case you were wondering:

Rudy Giuliani: Nothing.
John McCain: Nothing.
Mitt Romney: Nothing.
Fred Thompson: Nothing.
Mike Huckabee: Nothing. A 30-minute interview with Glenn Beck on his front page, too, Beck is the guy who claimed that some of the people who lost their homes hate America.
Duncan Hunter: It’s his frickin’ district and it’s hard to find anything outside of this news article.
Tom Tancredo: Nothing.
Ron Paul: Nothing. And he’s doing a “Hollywood fundraiser” tonight.

They just don’t care. Which is really puzzling, considering that California is an early state. Plus, most of the fires are in Republican-leaning areas, like Orange County and the outer communities around San Diego.

But you would have to have the ability to feel compassion to actually offer it.

Ron Paul, California, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Mitt Romney | 7 Comments »

Soren Dayton has been tracking developments in the housing market and reporting on how they could impact next year’s election. His latest post on the subject makes a fairly compelling argument. Dayton looks at a number of key states — NE, CO, CA, MI, FL, OH — and compares Bush’s 2004 margin of victory/defeat with the number of foreclosures in each:

So, if you assume another 6 months as bad as these 6 months (and that the rates stay relatively stable in these states), Florida, Colorado, and Michigan would have a number of foreclosing households greater than the swing of the 2004 election results in those states.

Now, I am not saying that these are all Republican voters. Indeed, many of them will not be. But, by and large, people who think that their incomes will go up tend to vote Republican. In any case, with these large numbers, it is clear that this has the potential to become an election issue. Furthermore, with Nevada, Michigan, and Florida having very early contests, there is a real chance that Presidential candidates will have to take positions on these issues.

Candidates will need a message on this. Maybe they will need policies. In any case, electorally significant numbers of people will be effected by this issue.

I think Dayton is right, and I’ll try to track how the candidates approach the issue as the campaign continues.

Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, California | No Comments »

Here are some polling numbers released the day of, or day before, the debate. It should be interesting to see who gets the post-debate bounce to really know who “won.”

California, Polling | No Comments »

The State Senate in California passed legislation that will speed up the date of the state primary from June to February 5. It is a move that, if passed as expected by the State Assembly and signed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, would significantly alter the primary campaign.

Back in January, Governor Schwarzenegger commented:

“I’m interested in making California a player,” Schwarzenegger said recently. “It’s the No. 1 place in the world and we’re kind of an afterthought when it comes to the presidential campaign … (We) want to make California relevant.”

The effect of an early primary for California, and other large states like Florida and Michigan, would be dramatic. Larger states, ergo more expensive for media buys and statewide travel, would work against all candidates but especially the second-tier.

With as many as 15 states that might hold primaries or caucuses Feb. 5, candidates could end up curtailing lunch-counter campaigning in the intimate confines of New Hampshire and Iowa to compete in the larger states on their heels. Facing advertisement buys of upward of $5 million a week to blanket California media markets, the field of candidates would likely be winnowed faster than usual.

“It will certainly make California a bigger player, but in the larger scheme it’ll increase the odds that we’ll be choosing among the top-tier candidates,” said John Geer, a presidential scholar at Vanderbilt University. “And it puts a premium on the invisible primary, the fundraising circuit.”

A week-long media buy in the Central Valley, the rural areas south of Sacramento, is about $500,000. In the more expensive San Francisco media market, it is twice as costly. That covers just a fraction of the state.

California | No Comments »

American Research Group released statewide polling for January 2007 in Michigan (Giuliani), Missouri (McCain), Florida (Giuliani), Pennsylvania (Giuliani), Illinois (Giuliani), New Mexico (Giuliani), California (Giuliani) and North Carolina (Giuliani).

Former Governor Mitt Romney (MA), born in Detroit, Mich., recorded 10 percent in the state, good for third place, where his father, George W. Romney, was governor from 1963 to 1969.

Senator John McCain placed second and third, respectively, in neighboring states California and New Mexico.

Expect the numbers of Senator Sam Brownback (KS) to increase as time progresses. He is expected to announce tomorrow in his home state and when the Christian conservatives begin to express support for him, his standing should rise. To what extent remains to be seen.

The biggest impediment to success for Jim Gilmore, former Virginia Governor, is name recognition. His conservative credentials and national security experience would make him a tough opponent in the primaries — if people knew who he was.

Left off the ballot: Congressman Tom Tancredo (CO), Congressman Duncan Hunter (CA), Congressman Ron Paul (TX), John H. Cox (IL), and “The Other Candidates.”

Pennsylvania, Illinois, New Mexico, Missouri, Florida, Michigan, Polling, North Carolina, Georgia, California, Rudy Giuliani | 3 Comments »