Freddie Thompson rolled into Little Havana today, reports the New York Times, and rattled off a few Hollywood lines, and called Fidel Castro’s government a “state-sponsor of terror.”

He gulped down a cafecito like it was a tequila shot, munched on a guava pastry and quoted one of his lines from “Die Hard 2” after signing a DVD for a fan. (”Stack ‘em, pack ‘em and rack ‘em!” he said, grinning.)

In between, he called Fidel Castro “the head of state-sponsored terror” and told an audience here that he has been a friend of the Cuban community since his first days as a senator from Tennessee.

“Castro, one way or the other, will be off the scene before very long,” Mr. Thompson said, speaking in a small room with pictures of Cuban cigars framed on the walls.

Later, Thompson went into a stump speech that seemed to play well with the crowd.

“Some things are eternal,” Mr. Thompson said. “They’re handed down to us through the wisdom of the ages. And one of the things we got from that was the Declaration of Independence, which reminds us that our basic rights come from God, and not from government,” he said, leading several people to jump to their feet and applaud.

Apparently, Freddie forgot about the time he said he wasn’t going to be talking up religion. Grandpa Fred strikes again.

In related FDT/Florida news, it turns out Grandpa Freddie doesn’t have an opinion on the Florida delegates! Shocking, I know, from a man with just one stated principle and insightful interviews suggesting ‘somebody ought to come up with somethin’.’

Changing gears, I ask Thompson if Florida should be punished for its new January 29th primary date, which is earlier than Republican party rules allow.

“That’s inside party politics. When they have these primaries, where they have ‘em…what they do, is above my pay grade. I’m going to show up wherever and let people decide.”

But if Thompson gets the Republican party nomination will he use his weight to allow all of Florida’s delegates to attend the national convention next summer? The national party voted to strip Florida of half its delegates.

“Uh, well, you know, it could be. But I don’t know. I haven’t thought about that. All I know is I’m not going to get into intramural party politics.” [emphasis added]

This is not a new tactic by the FDT campaign: faux populism to cover up the fact that Freddie is a man without the answers. Above his pay-grade? The man is running for the presidency of the United States. Sorry, Fred, you’re running for the office of the highest pay-grade. It’s about time you formulated an opinion that wasn’t written for you, for a change.

(Hat tip: Julia Rosen, Ruck Pad)

Florida, Fred Thompson | No Comments »

Fred Thompson’s laziness is hurting him in Florida, reports the New York Sun’s Ryan Sager:

According to a number of Jacksonville-area Republican donors I’ve spoken to in recent days, the former Tennessee senator’s unimpressive early organization and late entry into the presidential race have led to a group of power players signing up with Mr. Thompson’s chief rival for the social-conservative vote: the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney. Yesterday, Mr. Romney’s campaign announced the support of a former ambassador to Bermuda and major Bush donor, John Rood, as well as the mayor of Jacksonville, John Peyton. It also announced nine new members of its state finance team, all from the city.

Mr. Rood, who attained “Ranger” status in 2004 by raising more than $200,000 for President Bush’s re-election campaign, is part of a group of about 20 Jacksonville-area Bush (that’s president and governor) donors and political supporters who have grown accustomed to working as a team. However, with both Bush brothers staying on the sidelines in this primary race — and everyone I’ve talked to insists there’s been neither a nod nor a wink from either — the group has failed to coalesce around any one candidate. This may be the first step in that direction.

Sager’s sources may insist that the Bushes have stayed out of the race, but as early as February there were reports that Jeb Bush was “privately is talking up the candidacy of Mitt Romney and steering some of his closest advisers to the campaign.” Whether those reports were accurate or not, it does seem that Thompson may be missing his chance to win the favor of the Jacksonville Republican establishment. As Sager points out, this represents a critical blown opportunity for Thompson: South Florida is Giuliani territory, but the northern part of the state should be the former Tennessee Senator’s power base.

What has to be particularly galling to Thompson supporters is how he has been blowing this opportunity. For one thing, his late start has turned off potential Jacksonville supporters. And then there’s his inexcusable political sloppiness:

Mr. Rood also cited the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the Thompson organization at a meeting the Jacksonville group held in July, where representatives of the various campaigns came in and pled their cases. While Messrs. Romney, Giuliani, and McCain all sent staff members to give detailed presentations in person that “were all very impressive,” according to Mr. Rood, Mr. Thompson had a consultant call in and relay some generalities about the “Law & Order” actor’s strength in national polling. That decision, according to all accounts, was received quite poorly by the group.

Fred Thompson: underachiever of the year?

Florida, Fred Thompson | 3 Comments »

It’s not just the DNC struggling to hold the line against early primaries:

The Republican National Committee plans to penalize at least four states holding early primaries, including New Hampshire and Florida, by refusing to seat at least half their delegates at the party’s national convention in 2008, a party official said Tuesday. [...]

“The rules are clear,” said Tracey Schmitt, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. “Any state that holds their primary outside of the window shall be penalized delegates.”

In addition to Florida and New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina also face sanctions for moving their contests before Feb. 5. Two other early nominating states, Iowa and Nevada, will escape Republican sanctions because they hold nonbinding caucuses, not primaries.

While the DNC made an exception for New Hampshire and South Carolina, the RNC has not — which raises the stakes, given those states’ interest in maintaining their position at the front of the calendar. New Hampshire’s Republican chairman was sounding belligerent:

Fergus Cullen, the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, said the party would hold to its primary, now set for early January, to maintain its historic role as the first primary state, even if it had to accept the penalties.

“If we end up being stripped of delegates, that is the price we are willing to pay,” Mr. Cullen said.

The precise outline of the controversy won’t be known until after Sept. 4, when the state committees are due to submit their nomination plans to the RNC. But given the relatively more stringent rules on the GOP side, it looks like the Republicans could be in for an even dicier game of chicken than the Democrats.

UPDATE: Jerome Armstrong points out that, compared to what has happened among the Democrats so far, the Republican approach to the calendar fight is pretty low-key. Jerome argues that, unless the GOP winds up with a brokered convention, the effects of the showdown are likely to be minimal.

Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina | 3 Comments »

Last year Republicans were hoping to use immigration as an issue to rally the base and drive a wedge through the Democratic party. Instead, they wedged themselves, opening up a massive self-inflicted wound. Now that wound threatens to cripple the GOP’s presidential election hopes.

Take, for instance, Florida. While the GOP’s congressional wing ramped up the nativist demagoguery, Karl Rove and the Bush political team recognized the danger this presented to a critical flank of the national Republican position: Florida. Hoping to shore up that flank, they overcame the vehement opposition of conservative activists to install Florida senator Mel Martinez at the head of the Republican National Committee. But that move wasn’t enough to counter months of racist scaremongering, one effect of which has been to destroy the GOP candidate most identified with comprehensive immigration reform.

Now, writes William Gibson of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, as McCain acknowledges having received death threats over his immigration position, Martinez, frustrated over his inability to get Republicans to address the immigration issue honestly, is avoiding reporters’ calls. Gibson says Martinez “appears to be distancing himself from the issue” — an understandable reaction, yet while Martinez goes into turtle mode, the GOP position in Florida, dependent as it is on Hispanic votes, erodes further:

“Politics is about perceptions, and indeed we’ve got a perception hurdle to overcome here,” acknowledged Al Cardenas, a Cuban-American and former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida.

Cardenas is putting it mildly. As the Republican candidates treat Hispanics like lepers — snubbing a major Hispanic leadership conference in Florida, turning their backs on birthright citizenship, abandoning whatever leadership they might once have shown — polls show Florida Hispanics abandoning the GOP, while the state as a whole looks increasingly winnable for Democrats. . This isn’t about the immigration issue alone — like most diverse constituencies, Hispanics are concerned about a range of issues, the Iraq war prominent among them. Yet when it comes to campaigning for Hispanic votes in Florida, Republican candidates seem to have little to offer beyond the reflexive pander to hardline Miami Cuban leaders. As a formula for winning the Sunshine State, and the Electoral College, that seems a little dated.

Florida | No Comments »

I don’t know if this exactly fits for TRF, but it’s so damn funny I’ve gotta post it.

Florida State Representative Bob Allen, one of John McCain’s co-chairs in the Sunshine State, was arrested a couple weeks back for offering an undercover policeman 20 dollars to perform oral sex on him. I wrote about it at the time. The police report is pretty unambiguous.

The officer: “I was standing against the far wall of the stall. Allen closed the door behind him and stood against it. I said “what’s up” and Allen said “Hi.” Allen then said “this is kind of a public place isn’t it.” I said “do you have somewhere else where we can go?” Allen said “How about across the bridge it’s quite [sic] over there.” Allen engaged me in a conversation in which he agreed to pay me $20.00 in order to perform a “blow job” on me.”

It took Allen a couple weeks, but he managed to come up with the dumbest excuse in the history of mankind.

State Rep. Bob Allen told police he was just playing along when a undercover officer suggested in a public restroom that the legislator give him oral sex and $20 because he was intimidated, according to a taped statement and other documents released Thursday.

…”This was a pretty stocky black guy, and there was nothing but other black guys around in the park,” Allen, who is white, told police in a taped statement after his arrest. Allen said he feared he “was about to be a statistic” and would have said anything just to get away. Allen, who couldn’t be reached for comment Thursday, has repeatedly declared his innocence, his intention to fight the charges and his desire to stay in office.

OK, pop quiz time. You’re the kind of person who thinks every African-American is about to steal your wallet, and you encounter a “stocky black guy” in a bathroom one day. Do you:

A) walk out of the bathroom calmly but insistently
B) pretend you have a gun and shout “You’ll never take me alive!”
C) talk about how much you love hip-hop in order to get on his good side
D) WALK INTO THE BATHROOM STALL with the black guy and offer to give him 20 bucks and a hummer

Now, if your goal is to leave the bathroom unharmed, and you’re afraid of scary stocky black men, I think “D” would be fourth on the list of four. But of course, I’m not Bob Allen.

This is essentially the Homer Simpson defense; making a bad situation worse.

Insurance Man: And this “Moe’s” – is this some sort of business?
Homer’s Brain: Don’t say you were at a bar, don’t say you were at a bar… But what else is open at midnight?
Homer: It’s a pornography store. I was buying pornography.

Incidentally, McCain probably has the least criminal staff campaign support out of all of the top tier. Why, none of his advisers have been indicted for selling coke, or impersonated a police officer, or was a Watergate-era spy.

Advisors, Florida, John McCain | 1 Comment »

Soren Dayton has been tracking developments in the housing market and reporting on how they could impact next year’s election. His latest post on the subject makes a fairly compelling argument. Dayton looks at a number of key states — NE, CO, CA, MI, FL, OH — and compares Bush’s 2004 margin of victory/defeat with the number of foreclosures in each:

So, if you assume another 6 months as bad as these 6 months (and that the rates stay relatively stable in these states), Florida, Colorado, and Michigan would have a number of foreclosing households greater than the swing of the 2004 election results in those states.

Now, I am not saying that these are all Republican voters. Indeed, many of them will not be. But, by and large, people who think that their incomes will go up tend to vote Republican. In any case, with these large numbers, it is clear that this has the potential to become an election issue. Furthermore, with Nevada, Michigan, and Florida having very early contests, there is a real chance that Presidential candidates will have to take positions on these issues.

Candidates will need a message on this. Maybe they will need policies. In any case, electorally significant numbers of people will be effected by this issue.

I think Dayton is right, and I’ll try to track how the candidates approach the issue as the campaign continues.

California, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Ohio | No Comments »

John McCain will be in Palm Beach, Florida today, and the Caucus reports he’ll use the visit to reassure right-wing Miami Cubans that he intends to let them continue to hold American policy hostage. McCain’s speech suggests that his foreign policy vision extends no further than bluster and propaganda, with a warning that he “will not passively await the long-overdue demise of the Castro dictatorship,” and a call to re-establish something like the United States Information Agency:

“Dismantling an agency dedicated to promoting America and the American message amounted to unilateral disarmament in the struggle of ideas,’’ he plans to say. “Communicating our government’s views on day-to-day issues is what the State Department does. But communicating the idea of America, our purpose, our past and our future is a different task. We need to re-create an independent agency with the sole purpose of getting America’s message to the world. This would aid our efforts in the global struggle against Islamic extremism. It would aid our efforts to communicate accurately with the people of Latin America when some try to propagandize them.’’

The Senator’s speech will also include a plug for the Free Trade Area of the Americas, and some satisfying Hugo Chavez-bashing. Evidently McCain shares with the Bush administration the notion that bad policy and belligerence are okay if you’ve got a nice slick PR campaign to “communicate” with the world (whereas “some” would “try to propagandize them”).

Florida, John McCain | 4 Comments »

American Research Group released statewide polling for January 2007 in Michigan (Giuliani), Missouri (McCain), Florida (Giuliani), Pennsylvania (Giuliani), Illinois (Giuliani), New Mexico (Giuliani), California (Giuliani) and North Carolina (Giuliani).

Former Governor Mitt Romney (MA), born in Detroit, Mich., recorded 10 percent in the state, good for third place, where his father, George W. Romney, was governor from 1963 to 1969.

Senator John McCain placed second and third, respectively, in neighboring states California and New Mexico.

Expect the numbers of Senator Sam Brownback (KS) to increase as time progresses. He is expected to announce tomorrow in his home state and when the Christian conservatives begin to express support for him, his standing should rise. To what extent remains to be seen.

The biggest impediment to success for Jim Gilmore, former Virginia Governor, is name recognition. His conservative credentials and national security experience would make him a tough opponent in the primaries — if people knew who he was.

Left off the ballot: Congressman Tom Tancredo (CO), Congressman Duncan Hunter (CA), Congressman Ron Paul (TX), John H. Cox (IL), and “The Other Candidates.”

California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Polling, Rudy Giuliani | 3 Comments »