…as if.

Have a look at the results from New Hampshire last night. The Great Reagan-like Hope was decisively in seventh place in New Hampshre.  In fact, “Total Write-Ins” got 1,300 votes more than the wise-cracking actor who once played a senator on C-SPAN2.

That means instead of voting for Fred Thompson, more of New Hampshire’s discerning primary voters were interested in writing in some random candidate for president like Tinky Winky, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, or perhaps even Democratic candidates selected by Republican voters who didn’t want to change their registration.

Just you wait for South Carolina. It’s all going to turn around in South Carolina his people insist. But if you look in the latest polls, he’s not even registering.

So please please please help Fred fill up the red truck.

Seriously, isn’t it a little scary that his campaign would think it’s a good idea to even engage in visual metaphors that hint that the vessel of the campaign is running out of gas? When you look at the latest fundraising appeal, it appears that Thompson is working out of his home, maybe because paying the rent on a campaign office can’t compete with rising gas prices, and he’s going to have to do a lot of driving around the Palmetto State if he’s going to be able to convince the state’s voters to choose him over Total Write-Ins.

Election 2008, Fred Thompson, South Carolina, New Hampshire | 2 Comments »

Josh Marshall wonders if Romney might have regained a touch of momentum just before the polls open. Either way, he suggests that, when you consider the bigger picture, it would be more than premature to suppose that a victory in New Hampshire would vault John McCain to the nomination:

The next big fight is in South Carolina. And two new polls out today (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA) show Huckabee in a dominant position in the state. So Huckabee looks likely to take Secessionville with either McCain or Romney coming in second.

At that point you’ll have to say that Huckabee, who the GOP establishment is roundly against, is the frontrunner in the campaign. And the others are going to coalesce around an anti-Huckabee candidate. It’s not clear to me that McCain is a shoe-in for that role.

McCain is, for the most part, just another right-wing Republican. But his tentative heresies on issues like campaign finance, global warming, and immigration are still a problem in his relationship with the GOP establishment. That establishment, while hardly united behind any single candidate, has generally expressed a good deal more interest in candidates like Romney, Giuliani, and even Fred Thompson. There may be voter movement behind McCain right now - but the whole point of being an establishment is that you don’t want the voters to ruin everything by deciding these things for themselves.

It may or may not be in the GOP establishment’s power to make the decision, at this late date, as to who will be the anti-Huckabee. But they’ll try, and there’s no particular reason to believe that they’ll try to make it McCain.

South Carolina, Fred Thompson, Michael Bloomberg, New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | No Comments »

With Iowa ready to explode in an ethanol-fuled burst of Caucus-going, the editors of the Right’s Field have been chatting amongst themselves about what we think will go down.  And I’m personally ready to put my predictions out in the open.

In Iowa, it’s going to be Romney by a nose with Huckabee right behind him, and McCain not too far off, but a decisive third.  And it’s going to shake out a similar way in New Hampshire, with Romney taking it, but McCain not far behind him again.

Based on this prediction, you might conclude that I think Romney is going to run away with the nomination, but that’s uncertain.  What is certain that after a pair of “first in the nation” contests that prove indecisive, Iowa and New Hampshire, at least on the GOP side, will prove they’re no longer the testing grounds of presidential politics.  States like Wyoming, Florida, and Michigan are already in full-on revolt against the current primary system, and the chorus they are building will only get louder after 2008.  With a pair of narrow margins of victory for one candidate in the two states, Iowans and New Hampshireans will show that they are just as conflicted about the candidates as the rest of the country, and not the decisive, sound-minded judges of political character that we have assumed them to be.

But don’t take my word for it, look at what the campaigns themselves are doing.  The most recent evidence is the anti-Mormon smear campaign against Mitt Romney in South Carolina uncovered by CNN.  They reported yesterday on the phony holiday greeting sent to South Carolinians by “the Romney family” that plays up the Mormon faith’s history of polygamy.

What the tactic says is that while we’re a couple of weeks out from South Carolina, the campaigns are convinced that there will be no decisive victory in the Hawkeye or the Granite States for the Republican field.  It’s going to be a bruising two months, especially for the Republicans, and the winner is going to have to marshal limited momentum into deft organization as February’s “national primary” day speeds forward like a mack truck.  While it’s going to be fun to watch, it’ll be bad for those Iowa and New Hampshire power brokers grasping to hold onto their current positions.

South Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Mitt Romney | 3 Comments »

American Research Group (ARG) released new figures from the three early states on September 30 — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Keyes, now only a few weeks into his campaign-destined-for-failure tired Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-Littleton, Colo.) in two of the early states — Iowa and New Hampshire.

Heading into the fourth quarter of fundraising, it begs the question: who will bow out next?

South Carolina, New Hampshire, Polling, Iowa | 1 Comment »

According to The Caucus, it happened on the trail in South Carolina:

A surprise guest of sorts came via a video, filed for the occasion by the former President Bush, who spoke in support of Mr. McCain and Senator Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina and supporter of Mr. McCain. “I’m proud to be with you at the no surrender rally,” the elder Mr. Bush said. […]

Rick Davis, Mr. McCain’s campaign manager, said tonight that the elder Mr. Bush’s video should not be taken as an endorsement. When he was asked if why it was not an endorsement, he said: “I think this was just a nice thing by a very patriotic American who was asked to make a video and said yes. The optics are wonderful for John McCain, but it wasn’t meant for political purposes.”

The easy joke is that this should be the final nail in the coffin for the relationship between McCain and Dubya, but it could actually go a little beyond that. What we often forget is that the current president’s Oedipal rage has been a useful dynamic for a conservative movement that has itself been in rebellion against the elder Bush ever since his brief presidency. The association between 41 and McCain makes sense given their obvious commonalities, but from a movement conservative perspective, “the optics” aren’t very wonderful at all.

South Carolina, John McCain | No Comments »

It’s not just the DNC struggling to hold the line against early primaries:

The Republican National Committee plans to penalize at least four states holding early primaries, including New Hampshire and Florida, by refusing to seat at least half their delegates at the party’s national convention in 2008, a party official said Tuesday. […]

“The rules are clear,” said Tracey Schmitt, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. “Any state that holds their primary outside of the window shall be penalized delegates.”

In addition to Florida and New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina also face sanctions for moving their contests before Feb. 5. Two other early nominating states, Iowa and Nevada, will escape Republican sanctions because they hold nonbinding caucuses, not primaries.

While the DNC made an exception for New Hampshire and South Carolina, the RNC has not — which raises the stakes, given those states’ interest in maintaining their position at the front of the calendar. New Hampshire’s Republican chairman was sounding belligerent:

Fergus Cullen, the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, said the party would hold to its primary, now set for early January, to maintain its historic role as the first primary state, even if it had to accept the penalties.

“If we end up being stripped of delegates, that is the price we are willing to pay,” Mr. Cullen said.

The precise outline of the controversy won’t be known until after Sept. 4, when the state committees are due to submit their nomination plans to the RNC. But given the relatively more stringent rules on the GOP side, it looks like the Republicans could be in for an even dicier game of chicken than the Democrats.

UPDATE: Jerome Armstrong points out that, compared to what has happened among the Democrats so far, the Republican approach to the calendar fight is pretty low-key. Jerome argues that, unless the GOP winds up with a brokered convention, the effects of the showdown are likely to be minimal.

Florida, Michigan, South Carolina, New Hampshire | 3 Comments »

Not only was Rudy Giuliani’s South Carolina campaign chair Thomas Ravenel allegedly distributing cocaine, it appears he was also violating state law by campaigning for Rudy on the taxpayers’ dime. Besides his campaign role, Ravenel was South Carolina’s state Treasurer. And according to the AP’s Meg Kinnard (h/t David Weigel, whose post has the splendid title “Requiem for a Jerk”), Ravenel’s email records reveal that he was improperly working for Giuliani out of his state office:

The e-mails indicate that Ravenel used public time and his state e-mail account as part of his work as Giuliani’s presidential campaign chairman in South Carolina, which ethics experts say is apparently barred under state regulations….

Ravenel and his spokesman also bantered via computer during work hours about an op-ed by Ravenel encouraging South Carolinians to support Giuliani, the former New York mayor.

“The two most central issues the next President will face will be how to protect us against terror and how to keep our economy growing,” wrote Ravenel, who has stepped down as Giuliani’s state chairman. “It will be a daunting task, but there is no question in my mind that Rudy Giuliani is the right man for the job.”

South Carolina government ethics rules prohibit any state worker from using time on the job, or state equipment, to work on political campaigns….

Ravenel was also being urged to challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham, whom conservatives have deemed insufficiently orthodox, in next year’s Republican primary. He’s now facing up to 20 years in prison on the cocaine charge.

South Carolina, Rudy Giuliani | 3 Comments »

Two statewide polls conducted by Public Policy Polling find Fred Thompson extremely strong in early primary and caucus states. Pollster has the goods.

South Carolina:

Among 630 Republicans in South Carolina, Thompson (at 27%) leads Romney (16%), McCain (15%), Giuliani (14%), and Gingrich (11%) in a statewide primary.

Iowa:

Among 774 Republicans in Iowa, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 31%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (15%), former Speaker Newt Gingrich (10%), Sen. John McCain (9%), and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (8%) in a statewide caucus.

In addition, a new national GOP primary poll conducted by Insider Advantage finds Fred Thompson in second place among all GOP candidates, behind only Rudy Giuliani (although Thompson, Romney and McCain are all within the 3% margin of error.)

Giuliani - 28%
(Fred) Thompson -19%
Romney - 17%
McCain -16%
Huckabee- 4%
Brownback -3%
Hunter- 2%
Paul – 2%
Gilmore – 1%
Undecided/Don’t Know -8%

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered Republicans nationwide on May 30th & 31st (crosstabs here.)

These polls are the first to be conducted entirely on or since last Wednesday when it was revealed that Thompson would be taking official steps toward entering the race.

Iowa, Polling, South Carolina, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, James Gilmore, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney | 2 Comments »

The American research group has released three polls documenting Republican preferences in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The polls themselves show little to no movement among the Republican contenders. One would suspect that overall support for the current frontrunner’s are weak since McCain and Rudy have shown some fluctuations over the last few months.

Below is where the current Republican field stands overall. It explains why McCain is seen as the frontrunner in the race. He leads in all three important early states where organization is key. In Iowa the most important retail state in the primary he has a well respected team of professional operatives organizing on his behalf. It would be hard to imagine another Republican overcoming a three state sweep by McCain early on in the primary process. Giuliani is underperforming his national numbers as well as his national stature. To the extent that one can make assumptions this early, one has to assume that the more Republican primary voters know about Giuliani’s views on social issues the less they’re likely to vote for him in the primary. (State polls over time show Giuliani losing momentum in the early primary states.) To my surprise Romney is performing well and Fred Thompson who’s still undeclared but declared has room to grow and overtake Romney and Giuliani. The rest of the pack including Brownback trails. If I’ve had a bias going into this site it’s that Brownback could prove to be a serious contendor with a strong showing in Iowa. At this point he’s not underperforming.

State-Wide Polls

In Iowa ARG shows virtually no movement, except movement down for Giuliani and movement up for Romney. I’m fascinated by Fred Thompson’s position in Iowa. He doesn’t have the name ID of a McCain or Giuliani but he’s obviously filling some void in the field. Whether that materializes after he enters the race is yet to be seen but these numbers among Iowa’s core activists indicate that Republican’s aren’t excited about their field of candidates.

Iowa

In New Hapshire the story is slightly different. McCain leads with no momentum (but a bounce back to his previous position). Romney is finally performing like a Governor who shared 2/3 of the media market with New Hampshire at a solid 24%. Giuliani is losing steam in New Hampshire (surprising since the state is more libertarian and the poll includes a healthy dose of independent voters). Could Romney’s attacks on Giuliani be having an impact?

New Hampshire

South Carolina is a make or break state for McCain, or so the media says. McCain got walloped in the state in 2000 by GW and he’s not risking it by tying up every elected official he can get his hands on. Even in South Carolina the previous pattern hold. McCain holds steady over the last few months, Giuliani (and Gingrich) lose support and Fred Thompson does well (10%) in a state where he probably doesn’t have as much name ID and who’s voters are less plugged in than voters in Iowa or New Hampshire. Here Romney is under performing. I don’t know whether his stagnation has to do with name-ID and a lack of infrastructure or with evangelical bias against Mormons. We’re likely to know in a few months but I suspect the latter as the primary unfolds and Romney continues to build his name ID.

South Carolina

Tomorrow’s debate word will be “Reagan”.

South Carolina, New Hampshire, Polling, Iowa | 4 Comments »

In a follow-up to the results thread from Thursday, Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) edged out former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the Spartanburg, S.C. Straw Poll by two votes in a surprise late surge. South Carolina ‘08 has the results.

John McCain: 164
Rudy Giuliani: 162
Duncan Hunter: 158
Sam Brownback: 85
Mitt Romney: 80
Mike Huckabee: 21

McCain picked up 78 votes since Thursday’s thread with Giuliani adding 39.

In Washington, D.C., former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney bought his way to the top in the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll. Jonathan Martin of The Politico reports:

Thanks to the support of hundreds of college students, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the CPAC straw poll. Romney took 21% of the vote to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuilani’s 17%. Sen. Sam Brownback came in third with 15%, ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s 14%. Sen. John McCain, the only GOP contender to not address the conference, took 12%. 1,705 votes were cast, many of them by College Republicans whose registration and in some cases travel and lodging was footed by Romney’s camp. [emphasis added]

More statistical analysis from Martin:

Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella responds that “It’s clear Mayor Giuliani’s proven record of results, decisive leadership and optimistic vision is resonating with Republicans.” I should’ve noted further up, btw, that in the “combined” question — where voters’ first and second choices were added together — Giuliani came out on top with 34% of the vote. Romney and Gingrich each took 30%, Brownback had 24% and McCain 20%. [misspelling fixed from original]

CPAC, South Carolina, Polling, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney | 1 Comment »